Preseason Rankings
Pac-12
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Gonzaga 93%   5   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +18.0 9 A +11 5 A- +7 16 0 1 0 1
Utah St. 47%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.6 56 B+ +7 50 B +4 70 0 1 0 1
San Diego St. 30%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.1 72 B- +4 77 B +4 68 0 1 0 1
Boise St. 23%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.5 76 B- +3 89 B +4 64 0 1 0 1
Colorado St. 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.0 81 B +5 60 C+ +2 103 0 1 0 1
Oregon St. 11%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.7 95 B +4 70 C+ +1 111 0 1 0 1
Texas St. 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.0 112 C+ +2 108 C +1 138 0 1 0 1
Washington St. 3%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.7 142 C+ +1 132 C +0 166 0 1 0 1
Fresno St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.2 171 C- -2 208 C +0 146 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 9 Gonzaga 74 25 Purdue 70 62%   
Mon, Nov 2 81 Colorado St. 71 132 Montana St. 62 79%   
Mon, Nov 2 120 Davidson 68 142 Washington St. 69 55%   
Mon, Nov 2 325 Idaho St. 58 56 Utah St. 81 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi 62 112 Texas St. 72 81%   
Mon, Nov 2 95 Oregon St. 79 290 Weber St. 63 92%   
Tue, Nov 3 222 Cal St. Fullerton 70 72 San Diego St. 84 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Gonzaga 2 69% 56% 11% 2% 69 19 7 3 1 0 0 0
Utah St. 3 18% 11% 6% 2% 18 27 19 15 9 6 4 2 1
San Diego St. 4 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 19 19 17 13 10 6 4 2
Boise St. 4 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 16 17 17 14 13 9 5 2
Colorado St. 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 13 16 16 15 13 11 7 4
Oregon St. 5 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 10 13 15 17 15 13 9 5
Texas St. 6 1% 0% 1% 0% 1 4 9 11 12 17 18 16 11
Washington St. 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 5 8 12 14 18 20 19
Fresno St. 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 4 6 10 15 24 38

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 13 - 3 22 - 6 0 0 0 2 4 8 12 18 21 21 11 4
Utah St. 10 - 6 21 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 11 15 16 17 12 7 5 1 0
San Diego St. 9 - 7 16 - 11 0 0 1 2 4 8 12 14 17 15 12 8 4 2 1 0
Boise St. 8 - 8 18 - 12 0 0 1 3 7 11 13 15 16 13 10 6 3 1 0 0
Colorado St. 8 - 8 17 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 7 13 14 15 16 11 9 5 2 1 0 0
Oregon St. 8 - 8 18 - 13 0 0 1 2 5 11 13 17 15 13 10 6 3 1 1 0 0
Texas St. 6 - 10 17 - 14 0 1 3 6 11 15 17 15 13 9 5 2 1 0 0 0 0
Washington St. 6 - 10 12 - 19 1 2 6 11 14 17 16 13 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Fresno St. 4 - 12 12 - 18 2 6 12 17 18 17 12 8 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Gonzaga 93% 43% 88% 5 Likely In 11 8 11 11 9 9 9 7 7 5 5 2 7
Utah St. 47% 17% 36% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 6 7 10 8 53
San Diego St. 30% 12% 21% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 4 5 7 7 70
Boise St. 23% 10% 15% Likely Out 1 1 3 4 6 7 77
Colorado St. 19% 8% 12% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 6 6 1 81
Oregon St. 11% 5% 6% Likely Out 1 1 2 5 89
Texas St. 4% 3% 2% Likely Out 1 1 2 1 96
Washington St. 3% 2% 1% Likely Out 0 1 1 0 0 97
Fresno St. 1% 0% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 2.3 13 49 31 7 0
1st Round 100% 2.1 0 22 53 21 3 0
2nd Round 82% 1.1 18 54 25 3 0
Sweet Sixteen 47% 0.5 53 41 6 0 0
Elite Eight 23% 0.2 77 22 1 0
Final Four 12% 0.1 88 11 0
Final Game 5% 0.1 95 5
Champion 2% 0.0 98 2

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 93% 8% 90% 66% 35% 18% 10% 4% 2%
Utah St. 47% 14% 40% 20% 8% 3% 2% 1%
San Diego St. 30% 10% 25% 11% 4% 2% 1%
Boise St. 23% 8% 19% 7% 2% 1%
Colorado St. 19% 7% 15% 5% 2%
Oregon St. 11% 4% 9% 3% 1%
Texas St. 4% 1% 4% 1%
Washington St. 3% 1% 3%
Fresno St. 1%