Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Saint Mary's 35%   12   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.2 80 C+ +2 109 B+ +5 53 0 1 0 1
Santa Clara 33%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.7 85 B +5 61 C+ +2 107 0 1 0 1
Seattle 10%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 122 C- -1 193 B- +3 83 0 1 0 1
Loyola Marymount 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.4 137 C +1 138 C +1 140 0 1 0 1
Pacific 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.0 139 C +0 148 C +1 143 0 1 0 1
Pepperdine 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.5 146 C+ +1 128 C- -1 189 0 1 0 1
San Francisco 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 0.0 154 C -1 178 C +1 141 0 1 0 1
San Diego 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.2 156 C +0 156 C +0 164 0 1 0 1
Portland 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.2 194 C -1 184 C- -1 212 0 1 0 1
Denver 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.2 255 C +0 168 D -5 333 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 113 Illinois St. 63 80 St. Mary's 70 75%   
Mon, Nov 2 255 Denver 66 42 Wisconsin 87 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 85 Santa Clara 74 179 Towson 63 85%   
Mon, Nov 2 199 Cornell 81 146 Pepperdine 80 50%   
Mon, Nov 2 258 Radford 68 154 San Francisco 76 79%   
Tue, Nov 3 136 Hawaii 72 122 Seattle 70 59%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Saint Mary's 3 41% 28% 9% 3% 41 21 15 9 6 4 3 2 1 0
Santa Clara 3 33% 22% 8% 3% 33 25 14 8 7 5 3 2 2 0
Loyola Marymount 5 13% 8% 4% 2% 13 13 13 11 13 11 9 8 6 4
Seattle 5 11% 6% 4% 2% 11 14 12 14 12 10 9 8 6 3
Pacific 5 7% 3% 3% 1% 7 11 12 12 14 11 10 10 8 5
Pepperdine 5 8% 4% 2% 2% 8 10 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 6
San Diego 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 8 11 12 13 12 12 12 9 6
San Francisco 6 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 9 11 12 13 12 12 11 7
Portland 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 4 8 8 10 11 14 13 15 14
Denver 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 5 6 8 10 14 21 31

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Saint Mary's 11 - 5 20 - 10 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 17 17 13 9 4 1
Santa Clara 11 - 5 20 - 11 0 0 1 1 3 6 7 11 15 19 15 11 6 3 1
Loyola Marymount 9 - 8 17 - 14 0 0 1 2 3 7 10 13 15 14 12 10 6 4 2 1 0
Seattle 8 - 8 16 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 15 14 14 10 6 3 2 0 0
Pacific 8 - 8 15 - 15 0 0 1 3 5 9 11 14 15 14 12 9 4 2 1 0
Pepperdine 8 - 9 16 - 14 0 0 2 2 5 10 12 14 14 12 12 8 4 2 1 0 0
San Diego 8 - 8 14 - 15 0 0 2 4 5 10 14 14 16 13 10 7 3 1 1 0 0
San Francisco 7 - 9 15 - 16 0 1 1 4 7 11 14 17 14 12 9 6 4 2 0 0
Portland 7 - 9 12 - 16 0 1 3 7 11 13 15 15 12 9 7 3 2 1 0 0
Denver 5 - 11 9 - 21 1 4 9 14 14 18 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Saint Mary's 35% 29% 9% 12 Likely Out 1 1 2 3 4 3 17 6 65
Santa Clara 33% 28% 7% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 2 17 6 67
Seattle 10% 9% 1% Likely Out 4 4 1 0 90
Loyola Marymount 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 4 2 0 92
Pacific 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 3 1 93
Pepperdine 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 3 1 0 94
San Francisco 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 0 95
San Diego 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 1 95
Portland 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 97
Denver 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.1 87 12 0
1st Round 99% 1.1 1 91 8 0
2nd Round 28% 0.3 72 27 1
Sweet Sixteen 9% 0.1 91 9 0
Elite Eight 2% 0.0 98 2 0
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Mary's 35% 4% 33% 11% 4% 1%
Santa Clara 33% 4% 31% 10% 3% 1%
Seattle 10% 1% 9% 2% 1%
Loyola Marymount 8% 8% 1%
Pacific 7% 7% 1%
Pepperdine 6% 5% 1%
San Francisco 5% 5% 1%
San Diego 5% 5% 1%
Portland 3% 3%
Denver 1% 1%