Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2012-13


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
18 Arizona 100.0%   5   25 - 7 12 - 6 25 - 7 12 - 6 +13.6      +8.0 23 +5.6 40 69.9 115 +14.1 19 +11.2 4
40 UCLA 99.9%   6   25 - 9 13 - 5 25 - 9 13 - 5 +10.6      +6.0 41 +4.6 55 75.1 37 +12.7 27 +13.4 1
41 Oregon 100.0%   9   26 - 8 12 - 6 26 - 8 12 - 6 +10.3      +2.5 113 +7.8 14 74.3 47 +12.2 31 +11.4 3
45 Colorado 91.3%   10   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +10.1      +3.3 90 +6.9 25 66.2 203 +10.9 42 +9.2 5
46 Stanford 1.1%   18 - 14 9 - 9 18 - 14 9 - 9 +10.1      +6.0 42 +4.2 66 71.7 83 +7.7 65 +7.6 9
57 California 62.0%   12   20 - 11 12 - 6 20 - 11 12 - 6 +8.5      +3.3 89 +5.2 44 67.4 177 +10.0 48 +12.0 2
71 Arizona St. 7.6%   21 - 12 9 - 9 21 - 12 9 - 9 +7.1      +3.9 73 +3.2 90 67.9 160 +7.9 64 +7.8 8
77 Washington 0.6%   18 - 15 9 - 9 18 - 15 9 - 9 +6.4      +2.7 109 +3.7 78 67.3 179 +7.1 73 +8.0 7
91 Washington St. 0.0%   13 - 19 4 - 14 13 - 19 4 - 14 +5.3      +3.5 82 +1.7 120 60.4 303 +1.4 154 +0.7 12
100 USC 0.0%   14 - 18 9 - 9 14 - 18 9 - 9 +4.7      +0.8 154 +3.9 73 69.4 124 +5.4 91 +8.4 6
103 Oregon St. 0.0%   14 - 18 4 - 14 14 - 18 4 - 14 +4.5      +4.5 65 0.0 168 74.0 51 +2.5 130 +0.8 11
114 Utah 0.0%   13 - 18 5 - 13 13 - 18 5 - 13 +3.6      +1.3 141 +2.3 109 60.4 306 +3.3 120 +3.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 2.0 100.0
UCLA 1.0 100.0
Oregon 2.0 100.0
Colorado 5.0 100.0
Stanford 6.0 100.0
California 2.0 100.0
Arizona St. 6.0 100.0
Washington 6.0 100.0
Washington St. 11.0 100.0
USC 6.0 100.0
Oregon St. 11.0 100.0
Utah 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 12 - 6 100.0
UCLA 13 - 5 100.0
Oregon 12 - 6 100.0
Colorado 10 - 8 100.0
Stanford 9 - 9 100.0
California 12 - 6 100.0
Arizona St. 9 - 9 100.0
Washington 9 - 9 100.0
Washington St. 4 - 14 100.0
USC 9 - 9 100.0
Oregon St. 4 - 14 100.0
Utah 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona
UCLA 100.0% 100.0
Oregon
Colorado
Stanford
California
Arizona St.
Washington
Washington St.
USC
Oregon St.
Utah


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.0 3.0 20.2 47.7 25.7 3.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
UCLA 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 6   0.0 0.8 12.2 46.8 35.3 4.6 0.2 0.1 99.9%
Oregon 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 9   0.0 0.5 5.9 27.0 34.6 23.2 8.0 0.8
Colorado 91.3% 0.0% 91.3% 10   0.0 0.3 5.8 16.9 33.8 29.2 5.4 8.7 91.3%
Stanford 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.8 0.3 0.0 98.9 1.1%
California 62.0% 0.0% 62.0% 12   0.1 1.6 6.2 12.8 24.6 16.8 0.0 38.0 62.0%
Arizona St. 7.6% 0.0% 7.6% 0.1 6.5 1.0 92.4 7.6%
Washington 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5 0.2 0.0 99.4 0.6%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 66.3% 34.2% 13.5% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8%
UCLA 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 50.7% 17.0% 5.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Oregon 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 41.9% 10.7% 4.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Colorado 91.3% 5.1% 88.9% 35.8% 10.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Stanford 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 62.0% 16.5% 52.7% 18.2% 5.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Arizona St. 7.6% 7.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.6 2.6 37.0 55.8 4.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.5 4.3 47.5 46.6 1.7 0.0
2nd Round 96.0% 2.1 4.1 22.2 38.4 27.0 7.6 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 59.0% 0.8 41.1 42.4 14.5 2.0 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 25.8% 0.3 74.2 23.6 2.2 0.1
Final Four 9.7% 0.1 90.3 9.5 0.3
Final Game 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1 0.0
Champion 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0