Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2012-13
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+18.3#3
Pace71.0#96
Improvement-5.8#334

Offense
Total Offense+11.7#4
Improvement-2.0#248

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#37
Improvement-3.8#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 17.5% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 60.6% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 96.2% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round95.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen67.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight43.3% n/a n/a
Final Four24.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game12.5% n/a n/a
National Champion6.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2012 191   Georgia St. W 74-55 97%     1 - 0 +14.5 -0.9 +16.3
  Nov 13, 2012 42   Kentucky W 75-68 76%     2 - 0 +17.2 +10.6 +7.1
  Nov 18, 2012 140   Florida Gulf Coast W 88-67 95%     3 - 0 +19.4 +7.1 +10.4
  Nov 22, 2012 27   Minnesota W 89-71 69%     4 - 0 +30.4 +20.2 +9.8
  Nov 23, 2012 20   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-58 66%     5 - 0 +22.5 +3.6 +19.4
  Nov 24, 2012 1   Louisville W 76-71 37%     6 - 0 +26.0 +11.1 +14.6
  Nov 28, 2012 7   Ohio St. W 73-68 66%     7 - 0 +18.4 +10.2 +8.4
  Dec 01, 2012 168   Delaware W 88-50 96%     8 - 0 +34.7 +3.6 +27.4
  Dec 08, 2012 58   Temple W 90-67 81%     9 - 0 +31.3 +19.1 +12.3
  Dec 19, 2012 255   Cornell W 88-47 98%     10 - 0 +32.4 +3.8 +26.1
  Dec 20, 2012 208   Elon W 76-54 97%     11 - 0 +16.4 -0.1 +16.2
  Dec 29, 2012 81   Santa Clara W 90-77 91%     12 - 0 +15.5 +9.0 +5.5
  Jan 02, 2013 70   Davidson W 67-50 83%     13 - 0 +24.2 -0.1 +25.7
  Jan 05, 2013 127   Wake Forest W 80-62 95%     14 - 0 1 - 0 +17.3 +5.1 +11.4
  Jan 08, 2013 111   Clemson W 68-40 93%     15 - 0 2 - 0 +28.7 +6.3 +25.6
  Jan 12, 2013 29   @ North Carolina St. L 76-84 58%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +7.4 +4.9 +2.8
  Jan 17, 2013 102   Georgia Tech W 73-57 93%     16 - 1 3 - 1 +17.3 +0.5 +16.0
  Jan 23, 2013 12   @ Miami (FL) L 63-90 47%     16 - 2 3 - 2 -8.5 -8.2 +2.8
  Jan 26, 2013 53   Maryland W 84-64 86%     17 - 2 4 - 2 +26.2 +21.5 +6.0
  Jan 30, 2013 127   @ Wake Forest W 75-70 86%     18 - 2 5 - 2 +10.8 +3.4 +7.2
  Feb 02, 2013 109   @ Florida St. W 79-60 83%     19 - 2 6 - 2 +26.3 +19.3 +9.6
  Feb 07, 2013 29   North Carolina St. W 98-85 79%     20 - 2 7 - 2 +21.9 +22.3 -0.9
  Feb 10, 2013 93   @ Boston College W 62-61 81%     21 - 2 8 - 2 +9.3 -3.7 +13.1
  Feb 13, 2013 26   North Carolina W 73-68 78%     22 - 2 9 - 2 +14.3 +1.8 +12.5
  Feb 16, 2013 53   @ Maryland L 81-83 68%     22 - 3 9 - 3 +10.7 +6.3 +4.7
  Feb 21, 2013 160   @ Virginia Tech W 88-56 90%     23 - 3 10 - 3 +35.7 +24.9 +14.7
  Feb 24, 2013 93   Boston College W 89-68 92%     24 - 3 11 - 3 +22.8 +12.8 +9.8
  Feb 28, 2013 39   @ Virginia L 68-73 62%     24 - 4 11 - 4 +9.4 +6.3 +3.0
  Mar 02, 2013 12   Miami (FL) W 79-76 71%     25 - 4 12 - 4 +15.0 +12.3 +2.7
  Mar 05, 2013 160   Virginia Tech W 85-57 96%     26 - 4 13 - 4 +25.2 +21.4 +8.3
  Mar 09, 2013 26   @ North Carolina W 69-53 57%     27 - 4 14 - 4 +31.8 +12.4 +21.7
  Mar 15, 2013 53   Maryland L 74-83 78%     27 - 5 +0.5 +7.1 -6.5
Projected Record 27.0 - 5.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.6 35.5 3.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.6 35.5 3.8 0.0 100.0%