Pre-tourney Rankings
Louisville
Big East
2012-13
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.0#1
Expected Predictive Rating+19.1#2
Pace69.8#119
Improvement+1.9#95

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#15
Improvement-0.5#186

Defense
Total Defense+12.7#1
Improvement+2.3#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 27.8% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 73.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 98.5% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.3 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round98.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen79.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight60.6% n/a n/a
Final Four42.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game28.3% n/a n/a
National Champion18.2% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2012 154   Manhattan W 79-51 98%     1 - 0 +25.5 +9.3 +15.8
  Nov 15, 2012 287   Samford W 80-54 99%     2 - 0 +14.7 +1.3 +13.6
  Nov 18, 2012 239   Miami (OH) W 80-39 99%     3 - 0 +33.3 +6.3 +28.3
  Nov 22, 2012 64   Northern Iowa W 51-46 89%     4 - 0 +12.7 -16.5 +29.3
  Nov 23, 2012 19   Missouri W 84-61 76%     5 - 0 +36.5 +13.6 +22.2
  Nov 24, 2012 6   Duke L 71-76 63%     5 - 1 +12.6 -0.4 +13.3
  Dec 01, 2012 65   Illinois St. W 69-66 93%     6 - 1 +7.4 +0.6 +6.9
  Dec 04, 2012 157   @ College of Charleston W 80-38 94%     7 - 1 +45.8 +14.4 +33.5
  Dec 08, 2012 318   UMKC W 99-47 99.5%    8 - 1 +38.4 +15.1 +20.5
  Dec 15, 2012 33   @ Memphis W 87-78 72%     9 - 1 +23.9 +16.3 +6.9
  Dec 19, 2012 187   Florida International W 79-55 98%     10 - 1 +19.6 +6.1 +14.0
  Dec 22, 2012 183   Western Kentucky W 78-55 97%     11 - 1 +22.1 +7.5 +15.6
  Dec 29, 2012 42   Kentucky W 80-77 90%     12 - 1 +10.0 +7.0 +2.9
  Jan 02, 2013 63   Providence W 80-62 93%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +22.5 +15.2 +8.6
  Jan 09, 2013 113   @ Seton Hall W 73-58 90%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +22.0 +4.2 +17.7
  Jan 12, 2013 124   South Florida W 64-38 97%     15 - 1 3 - 0 +25.5 -5.4 +32.3
  Jan 14, 2013 51   @ Connecticut W 73-58 77%     16 - 1 4 - 0 +28.1 +8.6 +19.9
  Jan 19, 2013 11   Syracuse L 68-70 80%     16 - 2 4 - 1 +10.1 +8.3 +1.5
  Jan 22, 2013 49   @ Villanova L 64-73 77%     16 - 3 4 - 2 +4.2 -5.3 +10.2
  Jan 26, 2013 13   @ Georgetown L 51-53 60%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +16.4 -0.9 +17.0
  Jan 28, 2013 8   Pittsburgh W 64-61 77%     17 - 4 5 - 3 +16.2 +10.3 +6.5
  Feb 03, 2013 22   Marquette W 70-51 85%     18 - 4 6 - 3 +28.6 +6.9 +23.6
  Feb 06, 2013 98   @ Rutgers W 68-48 88%     19 - 4 7 - 3 +28.0 +7.3 +23.3
  Feb 09, 2013 30   @ Notre Dame L 101-104 5OT 70%     19 - 5 7 - 4 +12.4 +3.5 +9.8
  Feb 14, 2013 97   St. John's W 72-58 95%     20 - 5 8 - 4 +15.6 +3.9 +11.6
  Feb 17, 2013 124   @ South Florida W 59-41 91%     21 - 5 9 - 4 +24.0 -0.8 +27.8
  Feb 23, 2013 113   Seton Hall W 79-61 96%     22 - 5 10 - 4 +18.5 +13.2 +6.6
  Feb 27, 2013 165   @ DePaul W 79-58 94%     23 - 5 11 - 4 +24.3 -0.9 +23.4
  Mar 02, 2013 11   @ Syracuse W 58-53 59%     24 - 5 12 - 4 +23.5 -4.4 +28.0
  Mar 04, 2013 38   Cincinnati W 67-51 88%     25 - 5 13 - 4 +24.0 +9.2 +16.6
  Mar 09, 2013 30   Notre Dame W 73-57 87%     26 - 5 14 - 4 +24.9 +11.2 +15.7
  Mar 14, 2013 49   Villanova W 74-55 85%     27 - 5 +29.0 +3.5 +24.2
  Mar 15, 2013 30   Notre Dame W 69-57 80%     28 - 5 +24.2 +4.5 +20.5
  Mar 16, 2013 11   Syracuse W 78-61 71%     29 - 5 +32.3 +14.4 +18.3
Projected Record 29.0 - 5.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.3 73.0 25.5 1.5
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.3 73.0 25.5 1.5