Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2013-14
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#60
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#58
Pace65.7#230
Improvement-1.3#236

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#36
Improvement-1.2#242

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#102
Improvement-0.1#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.2% n/a n/a
First Round60.6% n/a n/a
Second Round21.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen5.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.6% n/a n/a
Final Four0.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2013 141   Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-80 82%     1 - 0 +0.0 -1.5 +1.4
  Nov 13, 2013 307   St. Francis (PA) W 70-56 96%     2 - 0 +1.6 -4.8 +7.1
  Nov 16, 2013 207   St. Francis Brooklyn W 78-58 90%     3 - 0 +14.7 +3.7 +10.5
  Nov 20, 2013 101   @ Georgia Tech W 82-72 56%     4 - 0 +17.2 +10.1 +6.6
  Nov 25, 2013 23   Gonzaga W 84-79 32%     5 - 0 +18.6 +16.6 +1.8
  Nov 26, 2013 30   Baylor L 66-67 36%     5 - 1 +11.5 +3.6 +7.8
  Nov 27, 2013 62   California W 82-64 51%     6 - 1 +26.4 +17.3 +10.0
  Dec 04, 2013 313   Delaware St. W 56-46 97%     7 - 1 -2.8 -0.3 +1.5
  Dec 07, 2013 150   @ Illinois St. L 75-81 67%     7 - 2 -1.8 +1.7 -3.1
  Dec 14, 2013 282   Central Michigan W 84-58 95%     8 - 2 +16.2 +3.2 +13.7
  Dec 19, 2013 80   Iona W 96-84 69%     9 - 2 +15.7 +16.1 -0.8
  Dec 22, 2013 143   USC L 76-79 OT 82%     9 - 3 -4.0 -0.2 -3.6
  Dec 29, 2013 167   Murray St. W 72-51 86%     10 - 3 +18.2 +4.8 +16.0
  Jan 01, 2014 249   Winthrop W 81-47 93%     11 - 3 +26.5 +9.8 +19.5
  Jan 04, 2014 87   @ Mississippi W 83-80 OT 50%     12 - 3 +11.8 +10.1 +1.5
  Jan 11, 2014 42   Saint Louis L 59-67 54%     12 - 4 0 - 1 -0.2 -8.4 +8.6
  Jan 15, 2014 203   @ Fordham W 80-68 79%     13 - 4 1 - 1 +12.4 +10.7 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2014 95   @ Richmond L 64-73 53%     13 - 5 1 - 2 -1.1 +5.5 -7.7
  Jan 22, 2014 22   Virginia Commonwealth L 66-80 41%     13 - 6 1 - 3 -2.8 +6.7 -10.3
  Jan 25, 2014 111   @ Rhode Island L 76-88 58%     13 - 7 1 - 4 -5.3 +7.1 -12.1
  Jan 29, 2014 57   Saint Joseph's L 57-60 59%     13 - 8 1 - 5 +3.3 -9.0 +12.1
  Feb 01, 2014 50   George Washington W 75-65 57%     14 - 8 2 - 5 +17.0 +13.8 +4.2
  Feb 05, 2014 137   @ George Mason W 84-67 65%     15 - 8 3 - 5 +21.8 +19.3 +3.6
  Feb 08, 2014 92   @ St. Bonaventure W 72-69 51%     16 - 8 4 - 5 +11.4 +6.3 +5.3
  Feb 12, 2014 111   Rhode Island W 76-69 77%     17 - 8 5 - 5 +8.1 +10.0 -1.5
  Feb 19, 2014 106   La Salle W 65-53 76%     18 - 8 6 - 5 +13.3 -1.2 +15.3
  Feb 22, 2014 149   @ Duquesne W 57-54 67%     19 - 8 7 - 5 +7.2 -12.8 +20.2
  Feb 25, 2014 57   @ Saint Joseph's L 53-79 38%     19 - 9 7 - 6 -14.1 -7.5 -9.7
  Mar 01, 2014 52   Massachusetts W 86-79 58%     20 - 9 8 - 6 +13.6 +16.0 -2.5
  Mar 05, 2014 42   @ Saint Louis W 72-67 33%     21 - 9 9 - 6 +18.3 +11.8 +6.6
  Mar 08, 2014 95   Richmond W 60-48 73%     22 - 9 10 - 6 +14.3 +3.2 +13.5
  Mar 13, 2014 203   Fordham W 87-74 85%     23 - 9 +10.6 +7.2 +3.1
  Mar 14, 2014 57   Saint Joseph's L 67-70 49%     23 - 10 +6.1 +3.1 +2.8
Projected Record 23.0 - 10.0 10.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 100.0% 67.6% 67.6% 10.4 0.0 0.9 6.3 26.6 32.4 1.4 32.4 67.6%
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 67.6% 0.0% 67.6% 10.4 0.0 0.9 6.3 26.6 32.4 1.4 32.4 67.6%