Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
159 Stephen F. Austin 29.3%   16   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 10 13 - 5 +0.1      -0.8 194 +0.9 146 72.1 124 -2.3 192 0.0 1
165 Abilene Christian 27.0%   6 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 7 13 - 5 -0.2      +0.2 167 -0.5 175 62.9 331 +7.8 85 0.0 1
229 Lamar 9.7%   2 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 7 -4.1      -2.2 240 -1.9 228 69.9 180 -5.9 245 0.0 1
253 Nicholls St. 7.4%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 8 -5.3      -4.5 297 -0.8 188 75.2 74 +0.3 169 0.0 1
264 New Orleans 6.9%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 14 10 - 8 -5.9      -3.9 283 -2.0 229 65.3 296 -6.4 252 0.0 1
279 Central Arkansas 4.1%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 9 -6.5      -2.8 247 -3.8 286 79.3 24 -2.6 194 0.0 1
282 Houston Baptist 4.0%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 9 -6.8      +0.3 159 -7.2 344 79.8 20 -3.6 216 0.0 1
286 SE Louisiana 3.8%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -7.0      -7.3 332 +0.3 159 68.2 229 -5.2 234 0.0 1
290 Sam Houston St. 2.9%   1 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 10 -7.2      -4.8 303 -2.4 245 66.1 278 -14.0 320 0.0 1
300 TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -7.8      -6.9 328 -0.9 195 65.8 283 -12.1 310 0.0 1
311 McNeese St. 2.0%   0 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 18 8 - 10 -8.7      -3.3 261 -5.5 314 68.8 209 -14.3 321 0.0 1
339 Incarnate Word 0.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 13 -13.0      -4.7 300 -8.3 349 66.3 272 -12.1 309 0.0 1
346 Northwestern St. 0.0%   1 - 7 0 - 0 5 - 23 4 - 14 -16.2      -10.7 350 -5.5 318 70.8 157 -17.8 340 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Stephen F. Austin 2.7 39.7 21.1 13.4 8.8 5.9 4.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 2.9 35.0 22.0 14.1 9.7 6.5 4.4 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Lamar 4.8 11.9 13.7 13.4 12.6 11.3 9.4 8.0 6.5 5.2 3.8 2.6 1.3 0.3
Nicholls St. 5.3 9.6 11.9 12.3 11.7 11.0 9.8 8.8 7.5 6.3 4.9 3.6 1.9 0.7
New Orleans 5.5 9.0 11.3 11.5 11.5 10.7 9.8 8.9 7.7 6.7 5.4 4.1 2.4 1.1
Central Arkansas 6.6 4.5 6.6 8.0 9.3 10.0 10.6 10.5 10.3 9.6 8.5 6.7 3.8 1.6
Houston Baptist 6.5 4.5 7.0 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.1 9.2 8.0 6.4 3.8 1.3
SE Louisiana 6.7 4.1 6.4 8.0 9.2 9.7 10.3 10.5 10.2 9.9 8.8 7.0 4.0 1.7
Sam Houston St. 7.3 2.7 4.5 6.0 7.5 8.6 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.1 10.9 9.3 5.8 2.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.3 2.8 4.9 6.5 7.6 8.7 9.5 10.2 10.6 10.7 10.4 9.1 6.1 2.8
McNeese St. 7.7 2.2 4.2 5.6 6.8 7.8 8.7 9.5 10.5 11.1 11.2 10.7 7.6 4.1
Incarnate Word 10.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.8 5.4 7.8 11.2 17.3 26.4 21.4
Northwestern St. 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.3 7.3 13.1 25.9 43.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Stephen F. Austin 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.0 6.7 9.7 12.9 15.2 15.8 13.8 10.2 5.5 1.6
Abilene Christian 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.4 10.7 13.6 15.7 15.6 13.0 8.8 4.2 1.2
Lamar 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.0 8.6 11.2 13.4 14.3 12.9 10.9 7.8 4.8 2.3 0.8 0.1
Nicholls St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.8 7.3 9.9 12.0 13.2 13.5 11.7 9.4 6.5 4.0 1.9 0.6 0.1
New Orleans 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.3 7.8 10.1 12.0 13.0 12.8 11.4 8.9 6.2 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1
Central Arkansas 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.6 8.4 11.0 13.0 13.7 12.9 11.0 8.1 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Houston Baptist 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.2 7.9 10.7 12.8 13.7 13.1 11.4 8.6 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.8 8.6 11.4 13.1 13.6 12.7 10.6 8.1 5.2 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.8 7.7 10.8 12.9 13.9 13.2 11.5 9.0 6.0 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.9 7.6 10.4 12.4 13.4 12.9 11.5 9.0 6.4 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
McNeese St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.1 9.0 11.2 12.8 13.1 12.1 10.3 8.0 5.5 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 5 - 13 1.7 5.5 10.4 14.1 15.9 15.3 12.8 9.7 6.4 4.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 4 - 14 4.2 11.6 17.5 19.3 16.8 12.5 8.4 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Stephen F. Austin 39.7% 27.9 9.1 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 35.0% 23.8 8.6 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lamar 11.9% 6.7 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 9.6% 5.2 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 9.0% 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 4.5% 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 4.5% 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 4.1% 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 2.7% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.8% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
McNeese St. 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Stephen F. Austin 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.1 12.0 10.3 70.7 0.0%
Abilene Christian 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.7 8.0 11.3 4.5 73.0 0.0%
Lamar 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 5.7 90.3 0.0%
Nicholls St. 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.1 92.6 0.0%
New Orleans 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 93.1 0.0%
Central Arkansas 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 95.9 0.0%
Houston Baptist 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 96.0 0.0%
SE Louisiana 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 96.2 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 97.1 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 97.3 0.0%
McNeese St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 98.0 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Stephen F. Austin 29.3% 4.0% 27.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 27.0% 1.1% 26.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 9.7% 2.9% 8.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 7.4% 2.0% 6.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 6.9% 3.1% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 4.1% 1.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 4.0% 1.5% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 3.8% 1.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 2.0% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 89.3% 0.9 10.7 89.3 0.0
2nd Round 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0