Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
169 Abilene Christian 36.4%   17 - 5 10 - 3 21 - 6 14 - 4 -0.3      -1.1 209 +0.8 145 65.7 268 +3.7 124 +1.8 2
173 Sam Houston St. 38.1%   16   14 - 9 12 - 1 18 - 10 16 - 2 -0.5      -0.8 201 +0.3 167 66.6 244 +1.7 147 +11.1 1
242 SE Louisiana 8.5%   11 - 13 9 - 4 14 - 15 12 - 6 -4.7      -4.9 289 +0.2 169 65.1 288 -5.4 243 -2.0 3
245 Lamar 5.3%   10 - 12 7 - 6 13 - 14 10 - 8 -4.9      -1.9 235 -3.0 250 70.2 145 -4.7 231 -5.2 5
269 New Orleans 5.4%   10 - 10 9 - 4 12 - 13 11 - 7 -6.2      -6.8 327 +0.6 155 69.0 181 -4.4 228 -2.9 4
274 Stephen F. Austin 2.4%   9 - 11 6 - 6 12 - 14 9 - 9 -6.4      -5.0 290 -1.5 212 72.5 88 -5.7 249 -7.5 6
282 TX A&M Corpus Christi 1.5%   6 - 15 5 - 7 9 - 18 8 - 10 -6.8      -5.1 295 -1.7 218 65.5 278 -9.9 304 -8.7 7
288 Houston Baptist 1.3%   7 - 14 5 - 7 10 - 17 8 - 10 -7.2      -2.5 250 -4.7 301 79.8 17 -8.1 284 -9.3 8
302 Central Arkansas 0.7%   7 - 15 5 - 7 10 - 18 8 - 10 -8.0      -3.4 274 -4.6 298 76.9 31 -8.4 290 -9.4 9
322 Nicholls St. 0.2%   7 - 14 4 - 8 10 - 17 7 - 11 -10.5      -5.0 291 -5.5 315 71.7 109 -9.3 301 -11.0 11
324 McNeese St. 0.0%   4 - 17 3 - 9 6 - 21 5 - 13 -10.6      -2.7 255 -7.9 344 66.8 240 -15.0 334 -14.8 12
331 Northwestern St. 0.1%   7 - 16 5 - 8 9 - 19 7 - 11 -11.5      -7.9 337 -3.6 269 70.9 127 -10.2 309 -9.9 10
339 Incarnate Word 0.0%   2 - 19 1 - 11 3 - 24 2 - 16 -13.5      -4.4 285 -9.1 349 64.3 303 -20.8 348 -23.4 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Abilene Christian 2.0 13.7 77.4 8.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 1.0 96.7 3.2 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 3.3 0.6 16.1 49.8 24.2 8.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Lamar 4.7 0.6 12.5 35.9 32.3 11.9 4.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 3.6 0.6 8.9 41.8 31.5 14.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 6.4 0.1 1.6 9.2 17.5 31.0 18.9 11.2 6.8 2.9 0.6 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.3 0.0 0.4 4.2 10.6 21.5 19.6 16.5 13.8 8.4 3.9 1.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 7.3 0.0 0.2 3.3 9.6 22.0 24.2 17.8 12.2 6.8 3.1 0.7 0.0
Central Arkansas 8.2 0.1 1.3 4.6 14.6 17.6 18.0 16.6 13.8 10.1 3.3 0.0
Nicholls St. 9.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.6 11.1 14.8 17.4 19.4 19.8 10.2 0.1
McNeese St. 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.5 6.9 11.3 21.1 51.0 1.7
Northwestern St. 9.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.2 12.2 16.2 19.2 21.1 19.7 4.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 7.0 91.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Abilene Christian 14 - 4 0.1 1.3 8.4 25.0 39.1 26.1
Sam Houston St. 16 - 2 0.1 1.5 8.7 26.2 39.3 24.2
SE Louisiana 12 - 6 1.4 10.5 27.5 34.8 21.2 4.5
Lamar 10 - 8 0.5 4.8 16.8 32.3 32.2 13.3
New Orleans 11 - 7 4.8 18.4 30.7 28.4 14.4 3.2
Stephen F. Austin 9 - 9 1.8 11.4 26.7 31.8 20.5 6.9 1.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8 - 10 1.8 9.2 21.6 29.5 24.0 11.4 2.4
Houston Baptist 8 - 10 0.8 6.2 20.9 34.1 26.6 10.0 1.4
Central Arkansas 8 - 10 4.3 16.9 28.8 28.2 16.2 4.9 0.6
Nicholls St. 7 - 11 2.7 12.9 26.6 30.4 19.8 6.8 0.7
McNeese St. 5 - 13 6.6 21.0 30.5 25.2 12.6 3.6 0.5
Northwestern St. 7 - 11 8.0 27.5 35.4 21.7 6.6 0.8
Incarnate Word 2 - 16 21.1 36.0 27.5 11.9 3.0 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Abilene Christian 13.7% 3.2 10.1 0.5 0.0
Sam Houston St. 96.7% 85.6 10.6 0.5 0.0
SE Louisiana 0.6% 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0
Lamar
New Orleans 0.6% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
Stephen F. Austin
TX A&M Corpus Christi
Houston Baptist
Central Arkansas
Nicholls St.
McNeese St.
Northwestern St.
Incarnate Word


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Abilene Christian 36.4% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 10.4 20.5 3.8 63.6 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 38.1% 38.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.6 7.2 22.8 7.4 61.9 0.0%
SE Louisiana 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 7.6 91.5 0.0%
Lamar 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.3 4.0 94.7 0.0%
New Orleans 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.8 94.6 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.2 97.6 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.4 98.5 0.0%
Houston Baptist 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.2 98.7 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Abilene Christian 36.4% 0.2% 36.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 38.1% 0.6% 37.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 8.5% 4.5% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 5.3% 2.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 5.4% 3.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 2.4% 1.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.8% 0.9 7.2 92.8
2nd Round 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0