Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20

Last Updated: Feb 19, 2019
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com


View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Duke Auto 100.0% 46.1% 53.9% 100.0%
Virginia At-Large 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 100.0%
Tennessee At-Large 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 100.0%
Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 89.5% 10.5% 100.0%
Kentucky Auto 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 100.0%
Michigan St. Auto 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 100.0%
Michigan At-Large 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 100.0%
North Carolina At-Large 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 100.0%
Kansas At-Large 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 100.0%
Houston Auto 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 100.0%
Purdue At-Large 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 100.0%
LSU At-Large 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Texas Tech Auto 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 100.0%
Nevada Auto 100.0% 66.5% 33.5% 99.9%
Marquette At-Large 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 100.0%
Iowa St. At-Large 99.9% 21.3% 78.7% 99.9%
Florida St. At-Large 99.9% 3.7% 96.3% 99.9%
Wisconsin At-Large 100.0% 10.0% 89.9% 100.0%
Louisville At-Large 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 100.0%
Villanova Auto 99.9% 35.6% 64.3% 99.9%
Maryland At-Large 99.9% 7.4% 92.5% 99.9%
Kansas St. At-Large 99.9% 11.1% 88.9% 99.9%
Iowa At-Large 99.8% 4.0% 95.8% 99.8%
Virginia Tech At-Large 99.7% 3.0% 96.7% 99.7%
Mississippi St. At-Large 99.5% 5.8% 93.7% 99.5%
Auburn At-Large 96.4% 8.6% 87.9% 96.1%
Cincinnati At-Large 98.8% 26.5% 72.4% 98.4%
Texas At-Large 89.7% 7.3% 82.4% 88.9%
Baylor At-Large 90.8% 5.5% 85.3% 90.3%
Mississippi At-Large 94.6% 3.3% 91.3% 94.4%
St. John's At-Large 92.8% 10.8% 82.0% 91.9%
Washington Auto 97.5% 30.2% 67.3% 96.4%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Seton Hall At-Large 83.3% 7.6% 75.7% 81.9%
Buffalo Auto 96.9% 55.5% 41.4% 93.0%
Minnesota At-Large 74.4% 0.8% 73.5% 74.2%
Syracuse At-Large 85.2% 0.5% 84.7% 85.1%
10  North Carolina St. At-Large 86.7% 0.5% 86.1% 86.6%
10  Florida At-Large 79.1% 3.5% 75.6% 78.3%
10  Alabama At-Large 65.5% 0.9% 64.6% 65.2%
10  Clemson At-Large 65.4% 0.6% 64.7% 65.1%
11  Wofford Auto 89.3% 49.5% 39.8% 78.9%
11  Central Florida At-Large 68.9% 11.4% 57.6% 65.0%
11  Oklahoma At-Large 64.8% 3.7% 61.1% 63.4%
11  Butler At-Large 43.1% 6.7% 36.4% 39.0%
11  Ohio St. At-Large 63.3% 1.2% 62.1% 62.8%
12  Arizona St. At-Large 53.3% 16.1% 37.2% 44.3%
12  TCU At-Large 61.4% 3.7% 57.7% 60.0%
12  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 65.0% 38.1% 27.0% 43.6%
12  Lipscomb Auto 65.3% 62.9% 2.4% 6.4%
12  Belmont Auto 43.9% 38.4% 5.5% 8.9%
13  New Mexico St. Auto 46.7% 42.3% 4.4% 7.6%
13  Vermont Auto 62.0% 61.7% 0.3% 0.8%
13  Yale Auto 45.5% 43.6% 1.9% 3.3%
13  Old Dominion Auto 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Hofstra Auto 42.5% 42.4% 0.1% 0.1%
14  UC Irvine Auto 44.5% 44.5% 0.1% 0.2%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 58.4% 58.4%
14  Texas St. Auto 24.2% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Montana Auto 49.8% 49.8%
15  Northern Kentucky Auto 45.3% 45.3%
15  Loyola Chicago Auto 25.6% 25.6%
15  Radford Auto 36.0% 36.0%
16  Bucknell Auto 30.8% 30.8%
16  Sam Houston St. Auto 38.1% 38.1%
16  Texas Southern Auto 37.5% 37.5%
16  Rider Auto 22.1% 22.1%
16  St. Francis (PA) Auto 19.4% 19.4%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 33.1% 33.1%



First Teams Out of Tournament

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Nebraska 32.6% 1.2% 31.5% 31.8%
Temple 33.5% 6.4% 27.2% 29.0%
Utah St. 32.7% 15.7% 17.0% 20.2%
San Francisco 18.6% 3.2% 15.5% 16.0%
South Carolina 15.9% 0.5% 15.4% 15.5%
Indiana 14.3% 0.5% 13.8% 13.8%
Arkansas 13.1% 0.3% 12.8% 12.8%
Georgetown 9.9% 2.9% 7.0% 7.2%
Creighton 11.6% 4.9% 6.7% 7.0%
Oregon St. 13.8% 9.2% 4.6% 5.0%
Oregon 15.1% 10.6% 4.5% 5.0%
BYU 6.9% 2.3% 4.6% 4.7%
Furman 24.1% 21.1% 3.0% 3.8%
Toledo 19.7% 16.8% 2.9% 3.5%
Davidson 22.4% 19.6% 2.8% 3.5%
Fresno St. 13.9% 11.2% 2.7% 3.0%
St. Mary's 6.9% 4.0% 2.8% 2.9%
Illinois 3.3% 0.3% 2.9% 2.9%
Colorado 11.1% 8.6% 2.4% 2.7%
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2%
Tulsa 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Arizona 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Memphis 4.7% 3.8% 0.9% 1.0%
Providence 2.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.0%
UNC Greensboro 12.6% 11.8% 0.8% 0.9%
DePaul 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9%
Xavier 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.8%
Northwestern 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7%
Missouri 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Rutgers 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5%
Boston College 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Murray St. 37.8% 37.5% 0.3% 0.5%
Stanford 5.8% 5.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Utah 6.0% 5.6% 0.4% 0.4%
Bowling Green 10.3% 10.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Dayton 19.7% 19.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Texas A&M 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Wichita St. 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Penn St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
USC 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Liberty 29.6% 29.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Connecticut 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1%
South Florida 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
UCLA 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Last At-Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Butler 43.1% 6.7% 36.4% 39.0%
Arizona St. 53.3% 16.1% 37.2% 44.3%
TCU 61.4% 3.7% 57.7% 60.0%
Ohio St. 63.3% 1.2% 62.1% 62.8%
Oklahoma 64.8% 3.7% 61.1% 63.4%
Central Florida 68.9% 11.4% 57.6% 65.0%
Clemson 65.4% 0.6% 64.7% 65.1%
Alabama 65.5% 0.9% 64.6% 65.2%
Minnesota 74.4% 0.8% 73.5% 74.2%
Florida 79.1% 3.5% 75.6% 78.3%
Seton Hall 83.3% 7.6% 75.7% 81.9%
Syracuse 85.2% 0.5% 84.7% 85.1%
North Carolina St. 86.7% 0.5% 86.1% 86.6%
Texas 89.7% 7.3% 82.4% 88.9%
Baylor 90.8% 5.5% 85.3% 90.3%
St. John's 92.8% 10.8% 82.0% 91.9%
Mississippi 94.6% 3.3% 91.3% 94.4%
Auburn 96.4% 8.6% 87.9% 96.1%
Cincinnati 98.8% 26.5% 72.4% 98.4%
Mississippi St. 99.5% 5.8% 93.7% 99.5%
Virginia Tech 99.7% 3.0% 96.7% 99.7%
Iowa 99.8% 4.0% 95.8% 99.8%
Maryland 99.9% 7.4% 92.5% 99.9%
Kansas St. 99.9% 11.1% 88.9% 99.9%
Iowa St. 99.9% 21.3% 78.7% 99.9%