Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Duke Auto 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 100.0%
Kansas Auto 99.8% 35.5% 64.4% 99.7%
Michigan Auto 99.4% 27.8% 71.6% 99.2%
Michigan St. At-Large 98.3% 23.6% 74.7% 97.8%
Virginia At-Large 97.5% 13.9% 83.6% 97.0%
Auburn Auto 98.3% 30.5% 67.8% 97.6%
Gonzaga Auto 99.8% 68.0% 31.8% 99.4%
North Carolina At-Large 97.9% 14.7% 83.1% 97.5%
Tennessee At-Large 97.5% 28.7% 68.8% 96.5%
Nevada Auto 98.0% 65.8% 32.3% 94.3%
Texas Tech At-Large 90.1% 18.1% 72.0% 87.9%
Virginia Tech At-Large 93.2% 11.4% 81.7% 92.3%
Wisconsin At-Large 91.9% 10.8% 81.1% 90.9%
Oklahoma At-Large 83.8% 8.9% 74.9% 82.2%
Ohio St. At-Large 88.4% 9.4% 79.0% 87.2%
Villanova Auto 90.9% 23.6% 67.3% 88.1%
Florida St. At-Large 87.8% 5.1% 82.7% 87.1%
Mississippi St. At-Large 86.0% 11.0% 75.0% 84.2%
Nebraska At-Large 78.8% 7.4% 71.4% 77.1%
Purdue At-Large 76.9% 5.6% 71.3% 75.5%
Marquette At-Large 84.9% 16.9% 67.9% 81.8%
Indiana At-Large 76.3% 5.6% 70.6% 74.9%
Buffalo Auto 91.6% 55.7% 36.0% 81.1%
Maryland At-Large 65.5% 3.9% 61.6% 64.1%
Kentucky At-Large 74.7% 9.7% 65.0% 72.0%
TCU At-Large 66.5% 8.1% 58.3% 63.5%
Cincinnati Auto 86.1% 30.5% 55.6% 80.0%
Houston At-Large 83.4% 26.0% 57.4% 77.6%
Butler At-Large 74.6% 15.4% 59.1% 69.9%
Kansas St. At-Large 67.1% 8.4% 58.7% 64.1%
Louisville At-Large 70.9% 2.3% 68.6% 70.2%
Iowa St. At-Large 69.4% 9.9% 59.6% 66.1%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Arizona St. At-Large 76.5% 19.2% 57.3% 70.9%
Syracuse At-Large 69.9% 2.5% 67.5% 69.2%
Creighton At-Large 66.9% 12.1% 54.7% 62.3%
St. John's At-Large 57.9% 10.0% 47.9% 53.2%
10  Arizona At-Large 66.5% 15.2% 51.3% 60.5%
10  Central Florida At-Large 70.1% 18.8% 51.3% 63.2%
10  UCLA At-Large 60.3% 13.2% 47.1% 54.2%
10  Texas At-Large 51.7% 4.0% 47.7% 49.7%
11  Florida At-Large 65.3% 9.7% 55.5% 61.5%
11  Oregon Auto 63.3% 20.1% 43.1% 54.0%
11  West Virginia At-Large 51.6% 5.4% 46.2% 48.8%
11  Washington At-Large 50.7% 11.0% 39.8% 44.7%
11  Iowa At-Large 45.3% 2.4% 43.0% 44.0%
11  North Carolina St. At-Large 45.5% 3.1% 42.4% 43.7%
12  Dayton Auto 28.3% 18.2% 10.1% 12.4%
12  Wofford Auto 37.5% 33.4% 4.1% 6.2%
12  New Mexico St. Auto 49.6% 46.9% 2.7% 5.1%
12  Western Kentucky Auto 29.1% 25.8% 3.2% 4.4%
13  Belmont Auto 41.6% 39.6% 2.0% 3.3%
13  Georgia St. Auto 27.9% 26.5% 1.5% 2.0%
13  Yale Auto 31.8% 30.6% 1.2% 1.8%
13  Lipscomb Auto 50.8% 49.9% 0.9% 1.9%
14  Northeastern Auto 40.0% 38.9% 1.1% 1.7%
14  UC Irvine Auto 44.4% 43.9% 0.5% 0.9%
14  Vermont Auto 50.5% 50.1% 0.4% 0.9%
14  Loyola Chicago Auto 24.6% 24.1% 0.5% 0.7%
15  Montana Auto 38.3% 37.9% 0.4% 0.7%
15  Radford Auto 38.5% 38.4% 0.1% 0.2%
15  Lehigh Auto 20.8% 20.7% 0.0% 0.1%
15  Northern Kentucky Auto 32.9% 32.9% 0.1% 0.1%
16  St. Francis (PA) Auto 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Rider Auto 42.3% 42.3% 0.1% 0.1%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 23.9% 23.9%
16  Stephen F. Austin Auto 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Texas Southern Auto 37.5% 37.5%
16  South Dakota St. Auto 52.2% 52.2% 0.0% 0.1%



First Teams Out of Tournament

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Seton Hall 44.7% 7.2% 37.5% 40.4%
LSU 41.2% 2.9% 38.3% 39.5%
San Francisco 45.8% 11.0% 34.8% 39.1%
Xavier 35.8% 6.9% 28.9% 31.1%
Utah St. 40.1% 13.5% 26.6% 30.7%
Colorado 36.5% 8.4% 28.1% 30.7%
Clemson 30.6% 0.9% 29.7% 30.0%
Alabama 29.7% 1.3% 28.3% 28.7%
Minnesota 27.9% 0.9% 27.0% 27.2%
Miami (FL) 27.5% 0.9% 26.6% 26.8%
Temple 31.6% 7.6% 24.0% 26.0%
Penn St. 26.4% 1.0% 25.4% 25.7%
St. Mary's 32.6% 9.6% 22.9% 25.4%
San Diego 27.4% 4.5% 22.9% 24.0%
Arkansas 25.0% 2.2% 22.8% 23.3%
Northwestern 23.6% 1.2% 22.3% 22.6%
Oregon St. 26.1% 5.8% 20.3% 21.5%
Providence 22.4% 3.7% 18.7% 19.4%
Mississippi 20.3% 1.2% 19.2% 19.4%
BYU 21.8% 5.3% 16.5% 17.4%
Saint Louis 31.3% 17.0% 14.3% 17.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 30.4% 16.1% 14.3% 17.0%
Davidson 30.2% 16.5% 13.8% 16.5%
Toledo 28.5% 15.1% 13.4% 15.8%
Notre Dame 14.9% 0.5% 14.4% 14.5%
Georgetown 15.6% 2.5% 13.1% 13.4%
Fresno St. 20.7% 9.1% 11.7% 12.8%
Connecticut 18.1% 6.2% 11.8% 12.6%
Oklahoma St. 12.1% 1.0% 11.2% 11.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Vanderbilt 10.8% 0.8% 10.0% 10.1%
Furman 27.0% 20.3% 6.7% 8.4%
Baylor 8.3% 0.8% 7.5% 7.6%
Georgia Tech 7.7% 0.2% 7.5% 7.5%
Stanford 10.0% 3.0% 7.1% 7.3%
Missouri 7.8% 0.7% 7.1% 7.1%
DePaul 7.4% 1.6% 5.8% 5.9%
San Diego St. 12.0% 6.8% 5.2% 5.6%
Southern Illinois 26.6% 22.8% 3.8% 5.0%
Boston College 4.8% 0.1% 4.7% 4.7%
UNC Greensboro 28.4% 24.9% 3.5% 4.7%
Wichita St. 7.3% 3.0% 4.3% 4.4%
Rhode Island 13.1% 9.2% 4.0% 4.4%
Tulsa 6.5% 2.3% 4.3% 4.4%
USC 7.2% 3.0% 4.2% 4.3%
Memphis 6.7% 2.6% 4.1% 4.2%
Ball St. 13.0% 9.4% 3.5% 3.9%
Texas A&M 4.4% 0.7% 3.7% 3.8%
Rutgers 3.2% 0.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Georgia 3.0% 0.3% 2.7% 2.7%
Loyola Marymount 3.6% 1.0% 2.6% 2.6%
Illinois 2.2% 0.1% 2.0% 2.0%
Saint Joseph's 12.6% 10.9% 1.7% 1.9%
Penn 28.2% 26.8% 1.4% 1.9%
Harvard 31.2% 29.9% 1.3% 1.9%
SMU 4.0% 2.6% 1.4% 1.4%
Pittsburgh 1.4% 0.0% 1.3% 1.3%
Utah 2.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2%
Georgia Southern 16.9% 16.0% 0.9% 1.0%
Kent St. 4.7% 3.7% 1.0% 1.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Murray St. 35.4% 34.7% 0.6% 1.0%
Old Dominion 20.2% 19.5% 0.7% 0.9%
North Texas 15.5% 14.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Indiana St. 10.9% 10.1% 0.7% 0.8%
South Carolina 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8%
East Tennessee St. 13.3% 12.6% 0.6% 0.7%
Louisiana 19.3% 18.8% 0.5% 0.6%
Ohio 3.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.6%
Akron 5.8% 5.2% 0.5% 0.6%
New Mexico 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5%
College of Charleston 23.7% 23.3% 0.4% 0.5%
Drake 7.1% 6.6% 0.4% 0.5%
Miami (OH) 3.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Bradley 13.2% 12.8% 0.4% 0.4%
Southern Miss 7.8% 7.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Louisiana Tech 10.9% 10.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Northern Colorado 23.6% 23.4% 0.2% 0.3%
Liberty 33.2% 33.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Massachusetts 4.4% 4.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Duquesne 2.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Marshall 11.5% 11.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Boise St. 2.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Hofstra 20.4% 20.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Utah Valley 13.7% 13.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas St. 13.1% 13.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Grand Canyon 22.6% 22.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Pacific 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
The Citadel 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Eastern Michigan 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
UNLV 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1%
California 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Northern Illinois 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Holy Cross 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Evansville 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Central Michigan 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 19.5% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 17.7% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
UTEP 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
American 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%



Last At-Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
North Carolina St. 45.5% 3.1% 42.4% 43.7%
Iowa 45.3% 2.4% 43.0% 44.0%
Washington 50.7% 11.0% 39.8% 44.7%
West Virginia 51.6% 5.4% 46.2% 48.8%
Texas 51.7% 4.0% 47.7% 49.7%
St. John's 57.9% 10.0% 47.9% 53.2%
UCLA 60.3% 13.2% 47.1% 54.2%
Arizona 66.5% 15.2% 51.3% 60.5%
Florida 65.3% 9.7% 55.5% 61.5%
Creighton 66.9% 12.1% 54.7% 62.3%
Central Florida 70.1% 18.8% 51.3% 63.2%
TCU 66.5% 8.1% 58.3% 63.5%
Kansas St. 67.1% 8.4% 58.7% 64.1%
Maryland 65.5% 3.9% 61.6% 64.1%
Iowa St. 69.4% 9.9% 59.6% 66.1%
Syracuse 69.9% 2.5% 67.5% 69.2%
Butler 74.6% 15.4% 59.1% 69.9%
Louisville 70.9% 2.3% 68.6% 70.2%
Arizona St. 76.5% 19.2% 57.3% 70.9%
Kentucky 74.7% 9.7% 65.0% 72.0%
Indiana 76.3% 5.6% 70.6% 74.9%
Purdue 76.9% 5.6% 71.3% 75.5%
Nebraska 78.8% 7.4% 71.4% 77.1%
Houston 83.4% 26.0% 57.4% 77.6%
Marquette 84.9% 16.9% 67.9% 81.8%