Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
26 Nevada 97.1%   7   29 - 4 15 - 3 29 - 4 15 - 3 +13.5      +7.0 25 +6.4 32 72.6 85 +14.0 24 +11.9 1
37 Utah St. 100.0%   9   27 - 6 15 - 3 27 - 6 15 - 3 +11.1      +6.3 34 +4.9 55 69.7 147 +12.1 33 +11.8 2
72 Fresno St. 0.3%   22 - 9 13 - 5 22 - 9 13 - 5 +7.0      +3.1 92 +3.9 78 69.0 166 +7.0 75 +8.3 3
104 San Diego St. 0.0%   20 - 13 11 - 7 20 - 13 11 - 7 +4.6      -0.1 180 +4.7 58 67.0 225 +5.3 100 +5.1 4
131 Boise St. 0.0%   12 - 20 7 - 11 12 - 20 7 - 11 +2.7      +2.3 114 +0.3 158 64.7 287 -3.0 206 -3.0 9
156 UNLV 0.0%   17 - 14 11 - 7 17 - 14 11 - 7 +0.5      +1.4 135 -0.9 194 68.7 175 +1.1 148 +3.7 5
163 Colorado St. 0.0%   11 - 20 7 - 11 11 - 20 7 - 11 -0.3      +2.2 117 -2.5 246 68.0 203 -3.5 216 -1.7 7
169 New Mexico 0.0%   13 - 18 7 - 11 13 - 18 7 - 11 -0.6      +0.2 171 -0.8 187 80.1 15 -1.4 186 -1.9 8
232 Air Force 0.0%   13 - 18 8 - 10 13 - 18 8 - 10 -4.1      -2.1 242 -1.9 226 66.2 242 -2.8 203 -0.2 6
308 Wyoming 0.0%   7 - 24 4 - 14 7 - 24 4 - 14 -9.1      -6.0 318 -3.1 256 70.6 128 -8.9 305 -7.7 10
342 San Jose St. 0.0%   3 - 27 1 - 17 3 - 27 1 - 17 -14.9      -8.4 337 -6.4 329 72.7 83 -14.7 337 -16.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Nevada 1.0 100.0
Utah St. 1.0 100.0
Fresno St. 3.0 100.0
San Diego St. 4.0 100.0
Boise St. 7.0 100.0
UNLV 4.0 100.0
Colorado St. 7.0 100.0
New Mexico 7.0 100.0
Air Force 6.0 100.0
Wyoming 10.0 100.0
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Nevada 15 - 3 100.0
Utah St. 15 - 3 100.0
Fresno St. 13 - 5 100.0
San Diego St. 11 - 7 100.0
Boise St. 7 - 11 100.0
UNLV 11 - 7 100.0
Colorado St. 7 - 11 100.0
New Mexico 7 - 11 100.0
Air Force 8 - 10 100.0
Wyoming 4 - 14 100.0
San Jose St. 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nevada 100.0% 100.0
Utah St. 100.0% 100.0
Fresno St.
San Diego St.
Boise St.
UNLV
Colorado St.
New Mexico
Air Force
Wyoming
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nevada 97.1% 0.0% 97.1% 7   0.1 0.9 3.1 36.7 32.8 17.4 5.5 0.7 0.0 2.9 97.1%
Utah St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 9   0.0 0.2 9.9 29.5 31.5 21.4 7.2 0.4
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.3 0.0 99.7 0.3%
San Diego St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Boise St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nevada 97.1% 0.2% 97.1% 59.0% 14.2% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
Utah St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 47.9% 8.2% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 2.9 96.8 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 2.9 97.0 0.1
2nd Round 80.3% 1.1 19.7 53.6 26.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 21.2% 0.2 78.8 20.0 1.2
Elite Eight 8.6% 0.1 91.4 8.4 0.2
Final Four 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Final Game 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1