Pre-tourney Rankings
Buffalo
Mid-American
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#22
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#14
Pace82.3#10
Improvement+1.1#136

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#19
First Shot+5.5#35
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#29
Layup/Dunks+5.3#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#58
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement+0.7#146

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#31
First Shot+4.8#49
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#32
Layups/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#14
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement+0.4#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 9.1% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 64.6% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 6.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round68.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen28.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight9.7% n/a n/a
Final Four3.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.8% n/a n/a
National Champion0.2% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b2.0 - 0.02.0 - 1.0
Quad 25.0 - 1.07.0 - 2.0
Quad 316.0 - 1.023.0 - 3.0
Quad 47.0 - 0.030.0 - 3.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 259   St. Francis (PA) W 82-67 97%     1 - 0 +6.5 -5.3 +10.6
  Nov 09, 2018 82   @ West Virginia W 99-94 OT 71%     2 - 0 +13.7 +10.8 +1.9
  Nov 12, 2018 143   @ Southern Illinois W 62-53 83%     3 - 0 +13.4 -4.0 +18.0
  Nov 21, 2018 221   Dartmouth W 110-71 96%     4 - 0 +32.8 +16.6 +10.3
  Nov 24, 2018 277   Marist W 76-49 98%     5 - 0 +17.6 +4.1 +15.6
  Nov 30, 2018 296   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 96-77 97%     6 - 0 +11.0 +13.6 -3.8
  Dec 01, 2018 81   San Francisco W 85-81 79%     7 - 0 +10.0 +5.2 +4.4
  Dec 08, 2018 119   @ St. Bonaventure W 80-62 78%     8 - 0 +24.4 +12.4 +11.7
  Dec 15, 2018 143   Southern Illinois W 73-65 92%     9 - 0 +6.9 +1.5 +5.6
  Dec 18, 2018 33   @ Syracuse W 71-59 50%     10 - 0 +26.5 +7.4 +19.3
  Dec 21, 2018 27   @ Marquette L 85-103 43%     10 - 1 -1.8 +11.1 -11.2
  Dec 29, 2018 268   @ Canisius W 87-72 94%     11 - 1 +11.5 +6.3 +4.4
  Jan 04, 2019 151   @ Eastern Michigan W 74-58 84%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +19.7 +7.0 +13.4
  Jan 08, 2019 68   Toledo W 110-80 82%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +34.8 +23.8 +6.7
  Jan 12, 2019 152   Miami (OH) W 88-64 93%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +22.2 +13.9 +7.9
  Jan 15, 2019 245   @ Western Michigan W 88-79 93%     15 - 1 4 - 0 +6.7 +5.8 -0.1
  Jan 18, 2019 151   Eastern Michigan W 77-65 93%     16 - 1 5 - 0 +10.2 +4.4 +5.8
  Jan 22, 2019 135   @ Northern Illinois L 75-77 81%     16 - 2 5 - 1 +3.1 -7.3 +10.7
  Jan 25, 2019 141   @ Kent St. W 88-79 82%     17 - 2 6 - 1 +13.6 +5.4 +7.3
  Jan 29, 2019 134   Ball St. W 83-59 91%     18 - 2 7 - 1 +23.6 +3.9 +17.2
  Feb 02, 2019 112   @ Bowling Green L 88-92 76%     18 - 3 7 - 2 +2.9 +7.2 -3.8
  Feb 09, 2019 124   Central Michigan W 90-76 90%     19 - 3 8 - 2 +14.5 +2.0 +10.6
  Feb 12, 2019 118   @ Akron W 76-70 78%     20 - 3 9 - 2 +12.5 +7.1 +5.0
  Feb 15, 2019 68   @ Toledo W 88-82 66%     21 - 3 10 - 2 +16.3 +10.3 +5.3
  Feb 19, 2019 179   Ohio W 114-67 95%     22 - 3 11 - 2 +43.2 +28.2 +9.2
  Feb 22, 2019 141   Kent St. W 80-57 92%     23 - 3 12 - 2 +22.0 -0.5 +21.2
  Feb 26, 2019 118   Akron W 77-64 89%     24 - 3 13 - 2 +13.9 +10.5 +3.5
  Mar 01, 2019 152   @ Miami (OH) W 77-69 84%     25 - 3 14 - 2 +11.7 +1.7 +9.5
  Mar 05, 2019 179   @ Ohio W 82-79 88%     26 - 3 15 - 2 +4.7 +7.6 -3.1
  Mar 08, 2019 112   Bowling Green W 84-73 88%     27 - 3 16 - 2 +12.4 +5.7 +6.0
  Mar 14, 2019 118   Akron W 82-46 84%     28 - 3 +39.7 +10.7 +26.6
  Mar 15, 2019 124   Central Michigan W 85-81 85%     29 - 3 +7.3 +9.9 -2.7
  Mar 16, 2019 112   Bowling Green W 87-73 83%     30 - 3 +18.2 +10.6 +6.8
Projected Record 30.0 - 3.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.7 8.4 24.3 31.2 32.7 2.5 0.2 0.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6.0 0.0 0.7 8.4 24.3 31.2 32.7 2.5 0.2 0.0