Preseason Rankings
Southland
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Stephen F. Austin 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 7 15 - 3 +4.1      +0.5 149 +3.6 67 75.2 48 0.0 1 0.0 1
227 Lamar 22.2%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 7 -3.9      -2.5 246 -1.4 221 68.4 196 0.0 1 0.0 1
230 Abilene Christian 20.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 8 -4.0      -2.7 253 -1.3 215 69.7 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
236 SE Louisiana 18.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -4.3      -2.5 243 -1.8 242 64.6 289 0.0 1 0.0 1
258 Sam Houston St. 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -5.5      -3.8 279 -1.7 235 66.1 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
263 Nicholls St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 8 -5.8      -4.3 289 -1.5 229 80.7 12 0.0 1 0.0 1
292 New Orleans 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 9 - 9 -7.2      -4.7 297 -2.5 263 65.3 276 0.0 1 0.0 1
303 Central Arkansas 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 8 - 10 -7.9      -3.7 275 -4.2 307 79.5 15 0.0 1 0.0 1
304 McNeese St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -8.1      -4.1 285 -4.0 301 73.1 78 0.0 1 0.0 1
309 TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -8.6      -7.0 333 -1.6 231 68.8 185 0.0 1 0.0 1
312 Houston Baptist 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 8 - 10 -8.8      -2.8 256 -6.0 334 79.8 14 0.0 1 0.0 1
328 Northwestern St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -11.1      -7.2 335 -3.9 293 69.4 168 0.0 1 0.0 1
330 Incarnate Word 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 20 6 - 12 -11.5      -5.5 315 -6.0 333 71.4 110 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Stephen F. Austin 1.9 61.6 17.3 8.3 5.0 3.2 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lamar 5.1 10.6 14.5 13.4 12.0 10.0 9.2 8.1 6.2 4.9 4.2 3.4 2.1 1.3
Abilene Christian 5.3 9.2 13.4 13.4 11.0 10.7 9.6 8.2 6.7 5.8 4.3 3.6 2.6 1.4
SE Louisiana 5.2 10.2 15.3 12.5 11.6 10.1 8.3 7.8 6.7 5.4 4.5 3.7 2.5 1.6
Sam Houston St. 6.3 6.2 8.7 9.8 10.7 10.5 9.2 8.8 8.7 7.4 6.7 5.9 4.6 2.9
Nicholls St. 5.9 6.9 11.2 11.0 11.4 10.2 9.3 8.6 7.2 6.8 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.0
New Orleans 6.7 4.6 8.3 9.0 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.2
Central Arkansas 7.8 2.6 4.9 5.9 6.9 7.9 8.1 8.8 9.2 10.6 9.4 9.4 9.2 7.1
McNeese St. 7.4 2.7 6.3 7.7 7.5 8.1 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.7 8.9 8.5 7.6 6.6
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.7 2.4 5.5 6.4 7.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 9.2 9.2 9.7 9.7 8.5 7.2
Houston Baptist 7.8 2.1 5.3 6.0 7.0 7.8 7.8 9.0 9.1 9.8 9.7 9.0 9.4 7.8
Northwestern St. 9.4 0.8 1.8 2.6 3.8 4.4 5.9 6.8 8.2 9.6 10.9 13.2 15.5 16.6
Incarnate Word 9.6 0.6 1.6 2.3 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.8 7.8 9.3 10.5 13.1 16.1 18.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 5.0 6.8 10.0 13.0 16.5 17.0 15.6 9.4
Lamar 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.9 10.6 11.8 11.7 11.3 10.0 7.6 6.0 3.2 1.3 0.3
Abilene Christian 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.5 4.8 7.3 9.1 10.9 11.7 11.5 11.5 10.0 7.2 4.6 2.7 0.9 0.4
SE Louisiana 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.0 7.1 8.4 10.4 11.0 11.9 11.0 9.9 7.8 5.5 3.0 1.4 0.3
Sam Houston St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.7 6.0 7.5 9.4 11.1 10.8 11.5 10.6 8.8 6.8 4.8 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2
Nicholls St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.6 8.3 9.8 11.1 11.5 11.1 9.7 7.7 5.9 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.3
New Orleans 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.7 4.3 6.9 8.3 10.3 10.9 11.6 10.9 9.1 7.9 6.2 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
Central Arkansas 8 - 10 0.4 1.1 3.0 5.5 7.1 8.7 11.7 11.2 11.3 10.5 8.8 7.3 5.4 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
McNeese St. 8 - 10 0.4 0.9 2.7 4.1 6.5 8.2 10.3 11.2 11.1 10.7 9.6 7.5 7.0 4.4 3.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8 - 10 0.4 1.1 2.8 4.7 7.4 9.5 10.4 11.4 11.2 10.5 9.1 7.2 5.7 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Houston Baptist 8 - 10 0.3 1.4 2.9 5.2 7.8 8.9 10.7 11.5 11.6 10.2 8.5 7.7 4.9 4.2 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1
Northwestern St. 6 - 12 1.1 3.4 6.7 10.4 11.3 12.8 12.6 10.9 9.4 7.3 5.5 3.7 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 6 - 12 1.5 4.1 7.8 10.4 12.1 12.7 12.3 10.3 9.0 7.4 5.1 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Stephen F. Austin 61.6% 49.6 10.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
Lamar 10.6% 6.4 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Abilene Christian 9.2% 5.5 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 10.2% 5.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 6.2% 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 6.9% 3.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 4.6% 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 2.6% 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
McNeese St. 2.7% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.4% 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Houston Baptist 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.8% 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Stephen F. Austin 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 98.1 1.9%
Lamar 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.3 13.3 77.8 0.0%
Abilene Christian 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.3 11.8 79.3 0.0%
SE Louisiana 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.0 12.2 81.5 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 8.6 85.7 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
New Orleans 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 6.0 91.6 0.0%
Central Arkansas 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 4.7 93.8 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.6 95.0 0.0%
Houston Baptist 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.7 95.5 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Stephen F. Austin 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 22.2% 9.2% 17.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 20.7% 8.0% 16.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 18.5% 8.4% 14.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 14.3% 5.7% 11.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 8.4% 4.5% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 6.2% 3.7% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.0% 2.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 4.5% 2.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.0 2.0
1st Round 77.4% 0.8 22.6 76.3 1.1 0.0
2nd Round 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0