Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2018-19


Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Kansas Auto 96.4% 30.9% 65.5% 94.8%
1  North Carolina At-Large 93.2% 15.8% 77.5% 92.0%
1  Duke At-Large 92.9% 16.8% 76.2% 91.5%
1  Kentucky Auto 94.4% 23.9% 70.5% 92.6%
2  Virginia Auto 94.2% 17.8% 76.3% 92.9%
2  Villanova Auto 90.7% 28.0% 62.6% 87.0%
2  Gonzaga Auto 94.8% 67.1% 27.7% 84.1%
2  Tennessee At-Large 86.8% 16.3% 70.4% 84.2%
3  Michigan St. Auto 85.0% 16.9% 68.1% 82.0%
3  Auburn At-Large 81.6% 12.4% 69.2% 79.0%
3  Kansas St. At-Large 77.4% 12.5% 64.9% 74.1%
3  Nevada Auto 89.1% 56.3% 32.8% 75.1%
4  Syracuse At-Large 81.3% 9.5% 71.9% 79.4%
4  Florida At-Large 73.6% 10.6% 63.0% 70.5%
4  Michigan At-Large 74.5% 10.8% 63.6% 71.4%
4  West Virginia At-Large 78.7% 14.0% 64.6% 75.2%
5  Florida St. At-Large 76.1% 7.7% 68.4% 74.1%
5  Mississippi St. At-Large 76.2% 9.4% 66.8% 73.7%
5  Purdue At-Large 65.7% 8.8% 56.9% 62.4%
5  Wisconsin At-Large 68.7% 10.0% 58.7% 65.2%
6  Texas At-Large 63.2% 8.1% 55.1% 59.9%
6  Clemson At-Large 71.5% 6.3% 65.2% 69.6%
6  Virginia Tech At-Large 68.9% 6.6% 62.2% 66.7%
6  Texas Tech At-Large 57.5% 7.7% 49.8% 53.9%
7  Iowa St. At-Large 56.5% 7.1% 49.4% 53.2%
7  Marquette At-Large 67.5% 13.4% 54.1% 62.5%
7  Maryland At-Large 58.8% 7.4% 51.4% 55.5%
7  TCU At-Large 59.8% 7.8% 52.0% 56.3%
8  Indiana At-Large 64.5% 9.9% 54.6% 60.6%
8  Nebraska At-Large 57.6% 6.7% 50.9% 54.6%
8  LSU At-Large 52.4% 4.2% 48.2% 50.3%
8  Alabama At-Large 53.9% 5.1% 48.8% 51.4%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Creighton At-Large 50.0% 8.0% 42.0% 45.6%
9  Iowa At-Large 52.0% 6.9% 45.0% 48.4%
9  Ohio St. At-Large 49.8% 6.6% 43.2% 46.2%
9  Miami (FL) At-Large 62.3% 6.4% 55.9% 59.7%
10  Butler At-Large 54.8% 9.4% 45.4% 50.1%
10  Oregon Auto 71.5% 24.5% 47.0% 62.2%
10  St. John's At-Large 51.2% 11.0% 40.1% 45.1%
10  Cincinnati At-Large 61.2% 20.3% 40.9% 51.3%
11  Baylor At-Large 44.5% 4.7% 39.7% 41.7%
11  Washington At-Large 49.6% 13.6% 36.0% 41.7%
11  Xavier At-Large 45.3% 8.1% 37.2% 40.5%
11  Arizona St. At-Large 48.3% 13.5% 34.8% 40.2%
11  Houston Auto 57.9% 20.5% 37.4% 47.0%
11  Buffalo Auto 48.6% 35.3% 13.3% 20.5%
12  Western Kentucky Auto 47.9% 35.6% 12.3% 19.1%
12  Saint Louis Auto 31.2% 20.3% 11.0% 13.7%
12  Loyola Chicago Auto 35.7% 26.4% 9.3% 12.6%
12  Northeastern Auto 51.5% 45.1% 6.4% 11.7%
13  Georgia St. Auto 36.9% 33.5% 3.3% 5.0%
13  Harvard Auto 48.5% 45.1% 3.5% 6.3%
13  UNC Greensboro Auto 38.1% 35.3% 2.8% 4.3%
13  Montana Auto 55.5% 53.5% 2.1% 4.4%
14  UC Irvine Auto 42.4% 40.5% 1.9% 3.2%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 51.3% 49.8% 1.5% 2.9%
14  New Mexico St. Auto 43.0% 41.6% 1.4% 2.4%
14  Belmont Auto 39.2% 37.9% 1.3% 2.1%
15  Lipscomb Auto 37.4% 36.9% 0.5% 0.7%
15  Vermont Auto 50.0% 49.4% 0.6% 1.1%
15  Rider Auto 30.2% 29.5% 0.7% 1.0%
15  Northern Kentucky Auto 36.7% 36.4% 0.4% 0.6%
16  Radford Auto 35.3% 35.1% 0.2% 0.3%
16  Bucknell Auto 23.4% 23.2% 0.2% 0.3%
16  St. Francis (PA) Auto 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 0.1%
16  Lamar Auto 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Texas Southern Auto 36.6% 36.6%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 31.2% 31.2%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Tennessee 86.8% 16.3% 70.4% 84.2%
Syracuse 81.3% 9.5% 71.9% 79.4%
Auburn 81.6% 12.4% 69.2% 79.0%
West Virginia 78.7% 14.0% 64.6% 75.2%
Kansas St. 77.4% 12.5% 64.9% 74.1%
Florida St. 76.1% 7.7% 68.4% 74.1%
Mississippi St. 76.2% 9.4% 66.8% 73.7%
Michigan 74.5% 10.8% 63.6% 71.4%
Florida 73.6% 10.6% 63.0% 70.5%
Clemson 71.5% 6.3% 65.2% 69.6%
Virginia Tech 68.9% 6.6% 62.2% 66.7%
Wisconsin 68.7% 10.0% 58.7% 65.2%
Marquette 67.5% 13.4% 54.1% 62.5%
Purdue 65.7% 8.8% 56.9% 62.4%
Indiana 64.5% 9.9% 54.6% 60.6%
Texas 63.2% 8.1% 55.1% 59.9%
Miami (FL) 62.3% 6.4% 55.9% 59.7%
TCU 59.8% 7.8% 52.0% 56.3%
Maryland 58.8% 7.4% 51.4% 55.5%
Nebraska 57.6% 6.7% 50.9% 54.6%
Texas Tech 57.5% 7.7% 49.8% 53.9%
Iowa St. 56.5% 7.1% 49.4% 53.2%
Alabama 53.9% 5.1% 48.8% 51.4%
Cincinnati 61.2% 20.3% 40.9% 51.3%
LSU 52.4% 4.2% 48.2% 50.3%
Butler 54.8% 9.4% 45.4% 50.1%
Iowa 52.0% 6.9% 45.0% 48.4%
Ohio St. 49.8% 6.6% 43.2% 46.2%
Creighton 50.0% 8.0% 42.0% 45.6%
St. John's 51.2% 11.0% 40.1% 45.1%
Baylor 44.5% 4.7% 39.7% 41.7%
Washington 49.6% 13.6% 36.0% 41.7%
Xavier 45.3% 8.1% 37.2% 40.5%
Arizona St. 48.3% 13.5% 34.8% 40.2%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Missouri 42.8% 4.7% 38.2% 40.0%
North Carolina St. 42.2% 4.0% 38.2% 39.8%
Providence 43.9% 7.5% 36.4% 39.3%
Penn St. 41.4% 4.6% 36.8% 38.6%
Seton Hall 42.9% 7.0% 35.9% 38.6%
Central Florida 46.6% 13.2% 33.4% 38.5%
Louisville 38.6% 2.6% 36.0% 36.9%
Oklahoma 39.5% 4.4% 35.1% 36.7%
UCLA 43.4% 12.1% 31.3% 35.6%
Notre Dame 37.3% 3.1% 34.2% 35.3%
South Carolina 37.5% 3.9% 33.6% 35.0%
St. Mary's 42.2% 12.3% 29.9% 34.1%
Texas A&M 33.5% 3.2% 30.3% 31.3%
Northwestern 33.2% 4.1% 29.1% 30.3%
USC 36.4% 9.5% 26.8% 29.7%
SMU 38.2% 13.5% 24.7% 28.6%
Minnesota 30.7% 3.6% 27.1% 28.1%
Arizona 32.9% 7.9% 25.0% 27.1%
Georgetown 28.2% 4.8% 23.5% 24.6%
San Diego St. 37.3% 17.0% 20.3% 24.5%
BYU 31.4% 10.3% 21.2% 23.6%
Temple 29.9% 9.0% 21.0% 23.0%
Oklahoma St. 25.0% 2.7% 22.3% 22.9%
Illinois 22.0% 2.7% 19.3% 19.8%
Boston College 19.7% 1.4% 18.3% 18.6%
Wichita St. 24.0% 7.0% 17.0% 18.3%
Georgia 19.4% 2.1% 17.4% 17.7%
Vanderbilt 17.9% 1.9% 16.1% 16.4%
Arkansas 16.7% 1.4% 15.3% 15.6%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Colorado 19.4% 5.0% 14.4% 15.1%
Oregon St. 19.3% 5.0% 14.3% 15.1%
Utah 16.4% 4.6% 11.8% 12.4%
Memphis 15.4% 4.6% 10.8% 11.4%
Connecticut 15.9% 5.3% 10.6% 11.2%
DePaul 12.9% 2.7% 10.2% 10.5%
Davidson 21.8% 13.1% 8.7% 10.0%
Tulsa 14.2% 5.2% 9.0% 9.5%
Mississippi 10.3% 1.0% 9.3% 9.4%
Fresno St. 14.7% 6.7% 8.0% 8.6%
New Mexico 13.7% 6.1% 7.6% 8.1%
Illinois St. 26.7% 20.6% 6.2% 7.7%
Boise St. 12.4% 5.9% 6.5% 6.9%
Stanford 9.7% 3.2% 6.6% 6.8%
Saint Joseph's 14.7% 9.0% 5.7% 6.3%
Dayton 14.3% 8.7% 5.6% 6.1%
San Diego 9.4% 3.5% 5.9% 6.1%
Georgia Tech 6.9% 0.8% 6.0% 6.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 12.0% 6.5% 5.5% 5.9%
Rhode Island 14.6% 9.4% 5.1% 5.7%
Wake Forest 6.3% 0.7% 5.6% 5.6%
Southern Illinois 15.6% 11.7% 4.0% 4.5%
Rutgers 5.3% 1.0% 4.4% 4.4%
Wofford 31.4% 28.3% 3.1% 4.3%
St. Bonaventure 11.3% 7.5% 3.8% 4.1%
Marshall 18.9% 15.5% 3.4% 4.0%
Old Dominion 16.5% 12.9% 3.5% 4.0%
Ball St. 16.7% 13.4% 3.3% 3.9%
Northern Iowa 14.0% 10.5% 3.4% 3.8%
Toledo 14.0% 10.7% 3.3% 3.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
San Francisco 6.6% 3.0% 3.6% 3.7%
George Mason 9.6% 6.8% 2.9% 3.1%
Utah St. 5.2% 2.3% 2.9% 3.0%
College of Charleston 21.3% 19.2% 2.2% 2.7%
Eastern Michigan 11.9% 9.6% 2.3% 2.5%
Furman 22.5% 20.5% 2.0% 2.5%
UNLV 5.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4%
Ohio 9.7% 7.6% 2.1% 2.3%
Valparaiso 11.4% 9.5% 1.9% 2.1%
Louisiana 25.7% 24.1% 1.5% 2.0%
Bradley 11.6% 9.8% 1.8% 2.0%
Stephen F. Austin 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Richmond 8.8% 7.0% 1.8% 1.9%
Penn 22.0% 20.5% 1.5% 1.9%
Yale 21.7% 20.3% 1.4% 1.8%
North Texas 10.6% 9.1% 1.4% 1.6%
Louisiana Tech 8.3% 6.9% 1.4% 1.5%
Grand Canyon 30.8% 29.9% 1.0% 1.4%
Georgia Southern 12.3% 11.1% 1.2% 1.4%
Texas San Antonio 6.2% 5.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Pittsburgh 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.1%
Indiana St. 5.5% 4.4% 1.1% 1.1%
Massachusetts 4.8% 3.8% 1.0% 1.1%
Kent St. 6.1% 5.2% 0.9% 1.0%
Southern Miss 5.1% 4.2% 0.9% 1.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.9%
East Tennessee St. 12.0% 11.2% 0.8% 0.9%
Pacific 2.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9%
Iona 24.1% 23.4% 0.7% 0.9%
Miami (OH) 5.6% 4.8% 0.8% 0.9%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
La Salle 4.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.8%
Murray St. 20.5% 19.9% 0.6% 0.8%
Hofstra 9.9% 9.2% 0.7% 0.8%
Colorado St. 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8%
Princeton 14.8% 14.2% 0.7% 0.8%
Northern Illinois 4.4% 3.7% 0.7% 0.7%
UC Davis 20.1% 19.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Weber St. 14.8% 14.3% 0.6% 0.7%
Middle Tennessee 5.3% 4.7% 0.6% 0.6%
Wright St. 32.9% 32.5% 0.4% 0.6%
Cal St. Fullerton 16.1% 15.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Akron 4.4% 3.9% 0.6% 0.6%
William & Mary 8.6% 8.1% 0.5% 0.5%
California 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%
Tulane 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
South Dakota 22.6% 22.2% 0.4% 0.5%
UAB 4.0% 3.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Duquesne 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Drake 2.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.4%
Utah Valley 16.2% 15.9% 0.4% 0.4%
Washington St. 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4%
Northern Colorado 9.8% 9.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Jacksonville St. 21.6% 21.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Appalachian St. 7.5% 7.2% 0.3% 0.3%
South Alabama 11.1% 10.9% 0.3% 0.3%
Evansville 2.8% 2.5% 0.3% 0.3%
Wyoming 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Missouri St. 3.0% 2.7% 0.3% 0.3%
James Madison 6.6% 6.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Troy 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Canisius 13.0% 12.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Brown 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Austin Peay 11.5% 11.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Bowling Green 2.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Liberty 25.4% 25.3% 0.1% 0.2%
Air Force 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Louisiana Monroe 3.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.2%
George Washington 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas St. 4.2% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Santa Clara 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Central Michigan 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Monmouth 9.9% 9.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Columbia 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida International 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Long Beach St. 7.9% 7.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Eastern Washington 9.2% 9.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Lehigh 18.6% 18.6% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 9.5% 9.4% 0.1% 0.1%
UNC Wilmington 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida Gulf Coast 18.1% 18.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Purdue Fort Wayne 12.2% 12.1% 0.1% 0.1%
NJIT 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Winthrop 17.8% 17.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Western Michigan 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Hartford 17.0% 17.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Elon 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Stony Brook 10.0% 10.0% 0.1% 0.1%
South Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 15.9% 15.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Quinnipiac 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Dartmouth 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
North Dakota St. 7.4% 7.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Holy Cross 11.8% 11.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Coastal Carolina 3.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Denver 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Delaware 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Hawaii 5.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.1%
Colgate 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.1%
St. Peter's 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Pepperdine 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 8.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland Baltimore Co. 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
LIU Brooklyn 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Umass Lowell 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Connecticut St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Albany 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Binghamton 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
IUPUI 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis Brooklyn 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%