IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Idaho
Big Sky
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.8	#262
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.4	#298
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.8	#281

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.9	#243

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.0%	4.8%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	14.7	15.3

.500 or above	32.2%	60.6%	29.4%
.500 or above in Conference	37.3%	55.8%	35.6%
Conference Champion	1.8%	4.0%	1.6%
Last Place in Conference	12.2%	5.2%	12.9%

First Four	0.8%	0.5%	0.8%
First Round	1.7%	4.6%	1.5%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Away) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.2	0.0 - 0.2
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.6	0.0 - 0.9
Quad 2	0.2 - 2.1	0.2 - 2.9
Quad 3	1.9 - 6.5	2.2 - 9.4
Quad 4	9.3 - 7.2	11.5 - 16.5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	90	@ UC Irvine	L	61-72	9%
Nov 13, 2018	263	Nicholls St.	W	73-72	61%
Nov 24, 2018	177	UC Santa Barbara	L	65-70	33%
Dec 01, 2018	271	@ North Dakota	W	72-71	40%
Dec 05, 2018	191	@ Washington St.	L	69-73	26%
Dec 08, 2018	204	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	62-65	49%
Dec 15, 2018	253	Nebraska Omaha	L	72-73	57%
Dec 21, 2018	217	@ Santa Clara	L	63-66	32%
Dec 29, 2018	247	Idaho St.	L	69-70	57%
Dec 31, 2018	147	Weber St.	L	65-72	37%
Jan 03, 2019	174	Eastern Washington	L	65-70	43%
Jan 05, 2019	172	@ Northern Colorado	L	68-73	24%
Jan 10, 2019	251	Montana St.	L	71-72	58%
Jan 19, 2019	73	Montana	L	62-75	21%
Jan 24, 2019	257	@ Sacramento St.	L	66-67	39%
Jan 26, 2019	246	@ Portland St.	L	75-76	38%
Feb 02, 2019	326	Northern Arizona	W	69-64	74%
Feb 04, 2019	295	Southern Utah	W	73-71	65%
Feb 07, 2019	73	@ Montana	L	62-75	9%
Feb 09, 2019	251	@ Montana St.	L	71-72	38%
Feb 14, 2019	172	Northern Colorado	L	68-73	41%
Feb 18, 2019	174	@ Eastern Washington	L	65-70	26%
Feb 21, 2019	326	@ Northern Arizona	W	69-64	55%
Feb 23, 2019	295	@ Southern Utah	W	73-71	45%
Feb 28, 2019	246	Portland St.	L	75-76	56%
Mar 02, 2019	257	Sacramento St.	L	66-67	59%
Mar 07, 2019	147	@ Weber St.	L	65-72	21%
Mar 09, 2019	247	@ Idaho St.	L	69-70	38%
Projected Record						11.5 - 16.5	8.4 - 11.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.8	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.5	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.0				4.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.6	2.1	2.8	1.4	0.5	0.1						7.6	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	2.8	3.1	1.4	0.2	0.0							8.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.5	3.6	3.4	1.3	0.2	0.0								10.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.3	3.9	1.1	0.1										11.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.4	4.4	3.8	1.1	0.1											12.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.7	5.2	3.5	0.8	0.1												12.8	8th
9th				0.1	0.7	3.3	4.5	2.7	0.9	0.0													12.2	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.4	3.6	3.5	1.9	0.4	0.0														11.2	10th
11th	0.2	0.9	1.7	2.4	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0															7.8	11th

Total	0.2	0.9	2.0	3.8	6.1	7.9	9.7	11.0	10.7	10.5	9.8	8.0	6.8	5.3	3.3	2.3	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	98.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	68.0%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.0
16-4	53.3%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	17.1%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1
14-6	5.3%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0				0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.8%	1.8		0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		52.7%	52.7%		11.9								0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.1%		29.6%	28.8%	0.8%	12.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		1.1%
18-2	0.1%		35.6%	35.2%	0.4%	12.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		0.6%
17-3	0.6%		34.0%	34.0%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
16-4	1.2%		16.8%	16.8%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.0
15-5	2.3%		12.9%	12.9%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.0
14-6	3.3%		6.8%	6.8%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.0
13-7	5.3%		5.8%	5.8%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	5.0
12-8	6.8%		2.6%	2.6%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	6.7
11-9	8.0%		3.0%	3.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	7.7
10-10	9.8%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.1	9.7
9-11	10.5%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	10.3
8-12	10.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
7-13	11.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
6-14	9.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.6
5-15	7.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
4-16	6.1%																							6.1
3-17	3.8%																							3.8
2-18	2.0%																							2.0
1-19	0.9%																							0.9
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	15.2								0.0				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	98.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%