Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
96 UC Irvine 47.8%   13   2 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 3 +5.1      +1.8 119 +3.3 79 67.1 258 +8.6 71 0.0 1
157 UC Santa Barbara 18.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 6 +0.1      +1.9 113 -1.8 215 63.0 330 -1.8 212 0.0 1
203 Hawaii 10.2%   3 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 7 -2.4      -1.2 213 -1.2 198 70.0 173 -1.8 213 0.0 1
212 Cal St. Fullerton 9.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 7 -3.0      -4.4 299 +1.4 127 74.4 78 +0.3 175 0.0 1
254 Long Beach St. 5.0%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 8 -4.9      -2.5 258 -2.4 243 77.7 38 +0.1 179 0.0 1
274 UC Riverside 4.3%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 9 -5.6      -5.1 312 -0.6 176 60.8 343 +1.7 154 0.0 1
281 Cal St. Northridge 3.1%   0 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 9 -6.4      +0.7 151 -7.1 340 76.1 53 -7.4 269 0.0 1
306 UC Davis 1.3%   1 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 11 -8.9      -6.3 325 -2.6 253 66.5 272 -8.0 276 0.0 1
311 Cal Poly 1.4%   0 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 20 5 - 11 -9.5      -3.3 281 -6.2 333 65.5 290 -9.0 282 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
UC Irvine 1.6 64.8 19.7 8.0 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.0 22.5 26.9 18.1 12.3 8.3 5.5 3.6 2.0 0.9
Hawaii 4.0 10.1 18.3 19.0 15.9 12.9 10.0 7.1 4.5 2.3
Cal St. Fullerton 4.2 9.2 15.9 17.3 16.0 13.5 11.2 8.1 5.7 3.0
Long Beach St. 5.0 4.5 10.1 13.4 14.7 15.0 14.3 12.4 9.6 6.1
UC Riverside 5.3 3.4 8.3 11.7 13.7 14.6 14.7 13.8 11.6 8.1
Cal St. Northridge 5.7 2.4 6.3 9.6 12.3 14.3 15.5 15.4 13.8 10.3
UC Davis 6.7 0.8 2.8 5.1 7.7 10.5 13.3 17.1 20.6 22.0
Cal Poly 6.9 0.8 2.5 4.5 6.7 9.2 12.0 15.9 21.1 27.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UC Irvine 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.7 10.9 14.7 18.1 18.8 15.0 7.4
UC Santa Barbara 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.3 6.5 9.6 12.0 13.8 14.4 13.2 10.5 6.9 3.3 0.9
Hawaii 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.4 8.2 11.2 13.1 14.0 14.1 11.5 8.5 5.1 2.5 0.8 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 9 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.4 9.4 11.9 13.7 13.7 12.5 10.1 7.5 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.1
Long Beach St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.1 7.0 9.9 12.8 13.8 14.0 12.1 9.8 6.7 4.0 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 7 - 9 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.4 8.4 11.2 13.4 13.9 13.0 11.0 8.5 5.5 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 7 - 9 0.3 1.5 3.6 6.7 9.9 13.0 14.1 14.0 12.6 9.8 6.7 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 5 - 11 1.1 4.2 8.4 12.1 14.4 15.1 13.7 11.2 8.1 5.5 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 5 - 11 2.0 5.9 10.1 13.3 14.8 14.6 12.3 9.9 7.1 4.8 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 64.8% 52.6 10.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 22.5% 14.5 6.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 10.1% 5.7 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 9.2% 5.2 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 4.5% 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 3.4% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 47.8% 47.3% 0.5% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 2.9 11.8 14.7 10.4 4.8 1.1 52.2 1.0%
UC Santa Barbara 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.9 5.0 3.4 81.7 0.0%
Hawaii 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.5 3.0 89.8 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 3.4 91.0 0.0%
Long Beach St. 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.5 95.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 95.7 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 96.9 0.0%
UC Davis 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 98.7 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
UC Irvine 47.8% 0.7% 47.5% 9.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 18.3% 1.4% 17.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 10.2% 1.3% 9.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 9.0% 1.7% 8.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 5.0% 1.4% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.3% 1.5% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 3.1% 1.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6
1st Round 95.0% 1.0 5.0 94.7 0.3
2nd Round 12.0% 0.1 88.0 12.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0