Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
122 UC Irvine 40.9%   15   10 - 9 4 - 1 18 - 12 12 - 4 +2.9      +0.6 163 +2.2 106 68.5 207 +0.4 162 +1.6 2
181 Hawaii 19.4%   12 - 6 4 - 1 19 - 10 11 - 5 -0.8      -0.5 193 -0.3 171 71.9 104 +2.7 129 +4.9 1
184 UC Santa Barbara 16.5%   11 - 7 2 - 3 17 - 12 8 - 8 -1.0      +2.1 116 -3.1 260 61.3 338 -1.4 191 -9.0 8
235 UC Riverside 6.6%   10 - 9 3 - 3 15 - 14 8 - 8 -4.3      -3.4 272 -0.9 192 61.1 339 -2.4 207 -4.2 4
243 UC Davis 5.6%   6 - 13 2 - 3 11 - 19 7 - 9 -4.8      -1.6 219 -3.2 266 66.6 254 -6.6 271 -6.6 7
260 Cal St. Northridge 4.2%   6 - 14 3 - 3 10 - 20 7 - 9 -5.5      +0.9 157 -6.4 332 74.8 55 -5.8 263 -4.6 5
263 Cal St. Fullerton 4.4%   6 - 13 3 - 3 11 - 18 8 - 8 -5.5      -5.5 315 0.0 161 70.6 139 -6.2 267 -3.3 3
296 Long Beach St. 2.0%   5 - 14 2 - 3 9 - 21 6 - 10 -7.6      -5.1 308 -2.5 242 77.7 24 -4.9 243 -5.8 6
327 Cal Poly 0.4%   2 - 15 1 - 4 5 - 23 4 - 12 -10.4      -6.4 328 -4.0 289 68.1 216 -12.0 329 -9.6 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
UC Irvine 1.4 70.0 21.3 5.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 2.0 37.0 40.4 12.1 5.5 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 4.0 6.4 15.2 25.8 18.2 13.6 9.9 6.3 3.7 0.9
UC Riverside 4.5 3.1 10.7 19.7 19.5 16.4 12.7 10.1 6.4 1.5
UC Davis 5.3 1.6 6.2 13.9 15.8 16.8 15.4 14.9 11.0 4.5
Cal St. Northridge 5.1 2.0 6.4 13.7 17.1 17.2 16.3 15.7 9.1 2.5
Cal St. Fullerton 4.9 1.6 7.2 17.4 19.1 17.3 15.8 11.8 7.4 2.3
Long Beach St. 6.5 0.4 2.5 5.9 9.2 11.5 14.4 18.8 23.8 13.4
Cal Poly 8.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.0 6.7 10.8 19.6 55.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UC Irvine 12 - 4 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.2 10.3 17.6 23.9 22.4 14.9 4.8
Hawaii 11 - 5 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.7 11.8 17.8 21.6 20.4 13.3 5.4 1.1
UC Santa Barbara 8 - 8 0.3 0.9 3.6 8.4 15.3 21.0 21.1 16.4 8.6 3.6 0.7
UC Riverside 8 - 8 0.3 1.9 5.7 13.1 19.5 22.4 18.9 11.5 5.3 1.5 0.2
UC Davis 7 - 9 0.1 1.2 4.5 10.9 17.9 21.5 20.6 13.5 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 7 - 9 0.6 3.2 9.3 18.1 23.3 21.6 14.0 6.9 2.5 0.4 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 8 - 8 0.2 2.1 7.2 15.4 23.0 22.8 17.2 8.4 2.9 0.6 0.1
Long Beach St. 6 - 10 1.0 5.3 12.3 19.7 21.7 19.1 11.8 5.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 4 - 12 3.3 11.9 19.8 22.3 20.1 12.3 6.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 70.0% 53.6 14.0 2.1 0.3 0.0
Hawaii 37.0% 22.6 12.4 1.8 0.3 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 6.4% 2.3 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
UC Riverside 3.1% 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 1.6% 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 2.0% 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 40.9% 40.9% 0.0% 15   0.1 1.3 6.8 15.3 14.3 3.0 59.1 0.0%
Hawaii 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.5 8.4 2.4 80.6 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.8 6.9 83.5 0.0%
UC Riverside 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 5.6 93.4 0.0%
UC Davis 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 5.4 94.4 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1 4.1 95.8 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.2 95.6 0.0%
Long Beach St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 2.0 98.0 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
UC Irvine 40.9% 0.6% 40.7% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 19.4% 0.3% 19.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 16.5% 2.6% 15.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 6.6% 3.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 5.6% 5.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.2% 3.8% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 4.4% 3.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 90.9% 0.9 9.1 90.9
2nd Round 6.4% 0.1 93.6 6.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0