Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
99 Belmont 38.5%   15   13 - 7 5 - 3 21 - 9 13 - 5 +5.0      +3.4 78 +1.6 128 75.9 39 +1.4 146 -2.8 4
120 Murray St. 31.8%   13 - 5 8 - 0 20 - 8 15 - 3 +3.0      +2.9 91 0.0 159 70.9 131 +1.5 143 +10.5 1
149 Austin Peay 22.2%   12 - 7 8 - 0 19 - 10 15 - 3 +1.1      +5.0 49 -4.0 288 68.8 198 +2.8 125 +10.5 1
228 Eastern Illinois 2.4%   9 - 9 4 - 4 14 - 14 9 - 9 -3.8      -2.1 239 -1.7 221 70.8 134 -5.7 261 -7.2 7
230 Jacksonville St. 2.9%   7 - 12 4 - 4 13 - 16 10 - 8 -4.0      -3.9 288 0.0 161 68.7 203 -8.3 296 -5.8 5
266 Tennessee St. 1.2%   10 - 9 4 - 4 14 - 15 8 - 10 -5.6      -1.3 215 -4.3 297 72.6 89 -2.8 211 -6.6 6
301 Eastern Kentucky 0.6%   7 - 12 6 - 2 11 - 18 10 - 8 -8.3      -3.6 279 -4.7 309 82.7 10 -6.4 270 +1.4 3
304 Tennessee Martin 0.2%   4 - 13 2 - 6 9 - 18 7 - 11 -8.4      +3.1 85 -11.6 350 70.0 150 -6.9 277 -7.8 8
314 Morehead St. 0.2%   7 - 12 3 - 5 11 - 18 7 - 11 -9.1      -4.8 304 -4.2 296 68.2 214 -8.6 301 -10.0 9
332 Southeast Missouri St. 0.0%   2 - 17 0 - 8 6 - 23 4 - 14 -10.8      -4.6 301 -6.2 331 67.7 233 -14.7 340 -18.4 12
338 SIU Edwardsville 0.0%   3 - 16 2 - 6 6 - 23 5 - 13 -11.7      -5.2 309 -6.6 334 71.0 127 -16.7 344 -14.4 11
339 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   3 - 16 2 - 6 6 - 23 5 - 13 -12.5      -8.1 343 -4.4 299 67.3 238 -12.5 335 -12.3 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Belmont 2.5 11.4 34.5 45.5 6.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 1.4 66.9 24.7 7.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 1.7 45.0 37.9 15.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 5.4 0.2 1.0 5.0 25.8 24.8 22.5 11.7 5.8 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 5.0 0.1 1.4 8.5 32.4 25.4 16.0 9.5 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 6.4 0.0 0.3 2.3 12.5 15.5 19.2 24.2 15.3 7.5 2.5 0.6 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 4.9 0.3 1.9 8.5 35.1 24.1 16.5 8.6 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 7.7 0.0 0.2 5.1 8.0 12.0 18.1 23.2 17.1 9.2 4.6 2.4
Morehead St. 8.1 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.1 9.5 16.6 22.8 25.8 11.7 4.8 1.1
Southeast Missouri St. 10.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 6.4 12.3 21.1 22.4 33.7
SIU Edwardsville 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 7.1 14.6 26.0 29.9 18.1
Tennessee Tech 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.0 8.0 15.5 27.1 25.5 17.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 6.8 16.4 27.7 29.9 16.4
Murray St. 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.7 17.3 26.7 25.6 15.6 4.0
Austin Peay 15 - 3 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.8 14.1 23.7 26.6 18.5 7.8 1.4
Eastern Illinois 9 - 9 0.0 0.5 2.8 7.9 15.7 23.7 23.8 16.3 7.2 2.0 0.2
Jacksonville St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.4 5.1 12.4 20.5 25.3 20.2 11.2 3.3 0.4
Tennessee St. 8 - 10 0.5 2.9 9.5 17.8 23.5 21.6 14.6 6.8 2.3 0.4 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 10 - 8 0.7 4.0 12.0 21.3 24.4 20.6 11.8 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 7 - 11 0.2 1.5 5.0 11.2 18.5 22.1 19.8 13.3 6.2 1.9 0.3
Morehead St. 7 - 11 1.0 5.8 14.8 23.4 24.0 17.9 9.1 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 4 - 14 0.7 4.5 12.1 19.5 23.1 19.4 12.3 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 5 - 13 6.0 18.7 26.5 24.2 15.1 6.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 5 - 13 5.2 16.4 26.2 24.1 16.6 7.9 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 11.4% 2.6 5.9 2.9 0.1 0.0
Murray St. 66.9% 48.7 15.2 2.9 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 45.0% 28.0 14.1 2.9 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin
Morehead St.
Southeast Missouri St.
SIU Edwardsville
Tennessee Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 38.5% 38.5% 0.0% 15   0.1 2.9 11.3 16.2 7.4 0.7 61.5 0.0%
Murray St. 31.8% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 5.8 13.3 10.2 1.4 68.2 0.0%
Austin Peay 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.8 9.8 7.3 0.9 77.8 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.9 97.6 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.7 97.1 0.0%
Tennessee St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.7 98.8 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.9 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Belmont 38.5% 0.0% 38.5% 6.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 31.8% 0.2% 31.7% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 22.2% 0.1% 22.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.4% 1.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.9% 1.9% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.1% 1.0 1.9 98.1
2nd Round 11.9% 0.1 88.1 11.9
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0