Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
72 Belmont 49.6%   13   1 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 15 - 3 +7.0      +6.4 29 +0.6 145 76.0 55 -0.9 195 0.0 1
114 Murray St. 22.1%   1 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 8 13 - 5 +2.7      +2.2 106 +0.5 146 71.1 141 -0.7 188 0.0 1
189 Eastern Illinois 7.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.7      -0.6 194 -1.1 195 69.3 188 -5.6 254 0.0 1
211 Jacksonville St. 5.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.9      -2.3 251 -0.6 177 68.7 208 -4.9 248 0.0 1
221 Morehead St. 4.5%   2 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -3.2      -0.7 198 -2.5 248 68.2 221 +7.0 85 0.0 1
232 Austin Peay 4.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.7      +1.9 112 -5.6 323 71.1 144 -3.1 223 0.0 1
245 Tennessee St. 2.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -4.3      -1.8 230 -2.5 246 72.6 106 -2.6 217 0.0 1
263 Tennessee Martin 2.4%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 10 -5.3      +3.0 90 -8.3 348 70.9 151 -1.1 202 0.0 1
264 Eastern Kentucky 2.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -5.4      -2.9 270 -2.4 244 91.4 3 -1.1 200 0.0 1
300 Southeast Missouri St. 0.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -7.9      -1.9 237 -6.0 329 69.4 186 -1.5 205 0.0 1
304 Tennessee Tech 0.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -8.8      -6.5 330 -2.3 240 70.5 161 -7.9 272 0.0 1
333 SIU Edwardsville 0.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -11.3      -3.9 288 -7.4 342 72.3 117 -13.7 326 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Belmont 1.8 62.3 19.5 8.7 4.3 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 3.0 26.6 27.1 16.6 10.5 6.9 4.6 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2
Eastern Illinois 4.7 7.9 15.5 16.0 14.2 12.3 9.8 7.8 6.2 4.4 3.2 1.9 0.9
Jacksonville St. 5.5 6.1 10.8 13.0 12.5 11.6 10.4 9.2 7.9 6.7 5.5 4.1 2.3
Morehead St. 5.7 4.4 9.5 12.2 12.8 12.3 11.4 10.0 8.8 7.3 5.5 3.8 2.0
Austin Peay 6.1 4.2 7.9 10.1 11.0 11.7 11.0 10.4 9.4 8.3 7.2 5.4 3.3
Tennessee St. 6.7 2.5 5.6 8.4 9.6 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.0 10.2 8.9 6.7 3.7
Tennessee Martin 6.7 2.4 6.0 8.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 11.1 10.6 10.0 8.9 7.0 4.9
Eastern Kentucky 6.9 1.8 4.7 7.8 9.3 10.7 11.4 11.3 11.2 10.7 9.4 7.1 4.6
Southeast Missouri St. 8.2 0.8 2.5 3.9 5.4 6.9 8.4 9.8 11.1 12.4 13.5 13.3 12.0
Tennessee Tech 8.8 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.9 5.3 7.1 8.8 10.2 12.5 14.8 17.2 16.0
SIU Edwardsville 9.8 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.2 5.7 7.8 10.6 14.8 20.6 29.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 4.4 7.0 10.6 14.0 17.2 18.6 15.4 7.9
Murray St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.2 7.8 10.5 12.7 14.4 14.3 12.5 8.9 4.8 1.5
Eastern Illinois 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.3 9.1 11.3 12.8 13.2 12.2 10.1 7.8 4.8 2.3 0.8 0.2
Jacksonville St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.8 6.7 8.6 10.7 11.7 11.8 11.2 10.0 7.7 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
Morehead St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.0 7.3 9.6 11.4 12.7 12.6 11.5 9.4 7.2 4.7 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
Austin Peay 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.1 6.2 8.6 10.2 11.8 12.1 11.7 10.1 8.1 5.8 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
Tennessee St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.2 7.7 10.4 12.2 12.6 12.5 10.8 8.9 6.6 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.6 7.8 10.2 11.9 12.3 12.1 10.5 8.7 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.6 8.5 10.7 12.6 12.8 12.6 10.7 8.5 6.1 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.5 7.4 10.2 12.1 13.0 12.5 11.1 9.2 6.7 4.6 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 6 - 12 0.9 3.2 6.3 9.7 12.2 13.5 13.5 12.0 10.0 7.2 5.0 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 5 - 13 2.5 6.8 11.2 14.3 14.8 14.1 11.6 8.9 6.4 4.3 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 62.3% 49.8 10.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 26.6% 17.7 7.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
Eastern Illinois 7.9% 4.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 6.1% 3.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 4.4% 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 4.2% 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 2.5% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 0.8% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 49.6% 48.6% 1.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 4.6 14.3 14.0 8.3 3.4 0.6 50.4 1.9%
Murray St. 22.1% 21.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.7 6.5 6.1 3.5 1.0 77.9 0.3%
Eastern Illinois 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.5 1.4 92.9 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.1 94.6 0.0%
Morehead St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.7 95.5 0.0%
Austin Peay 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.7 95.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.6 97.3 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 97.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 98.0 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Belmont 49.6% 0.8% 49.3% 13.2% 4.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Murray St. 22.1% 0.4% 21.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 7.1% 0.5% 6.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.4% 0.4% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 4.5% 0.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.7% 0.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 2.4% 0.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.0% 0.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.8 1.2
1st Round 98.8% 1.0 1.2 97.9 0.8
2nd Round 18.4% 0.2 81.6 18.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0