Belmont
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#55
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#84
Pace76.0#49
Improvement+2.1#16

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#6
First Shot+11.9#1
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#308
Layup/Dunks+2.5#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.3#4
Freethrows+0.1#167
Improvement+1.6#24

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#152
First Shot-0.8#189
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#113
Layups/Dunks-1.6#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#320
Freethrows+4.2#15
Improvement+0.5#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 2.1% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.5% 5.4% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.9% 65.0% 53.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.1% 7.4% 1.5%
Average Seed 11.5 11.3 12.3
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
Conference Champion 75.2% 77.1% 66.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.9% 0.5%
First Round62.2% 64.2% 53.4%
Second Round21.9% 23.6% 14.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 8.2% 4.7%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.5% 0.8%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 2
Quad 37 - 310 - 5
Quad 416 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 166   @ Illinois St. L 72-79 73%     0 - 1 -4.2 +2.3 -6.6
  Nov 11, 2019 189   Samford W 95-63 90%     1 - 1 +27.4 +9.5 +14.7
  Nov 16, 2019 97   @ Boston College W 100-85 55%     2 - 1 +23.0 +25.6 -3.5
  Nov 18, 2019 330   High Point W 90-51 98%     3 - 1 +24.6 +6.6 +14.9
  Nov 20, 2019 218   @ Lipscomb W 87-78 81%    
  Nov 23, 2019 115   @ Saint Louis W 78-74 63%    
  Nov 26, 2019 201   @ Eastern Washington W 88-79 79%    
  Nov 30, 2019 197   @ Middle Tennessee W 84-76 78%    
  Dec 03, 2019 218   Lipscomb W 90-75 92%    
  Dec 18, 2019 329   Kennesaw St. W 90-66 98%    
  Dec 21, 2019 65   Alabama W 89-88 53%    
  Dec 28, 2019 77   @ Western Kentucky L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 02, 2020 328   SIU Edwardsville W 91-68 98%    
  Jan 04, 2020 190   Eastern Illinois W 86-72 90%    
  Jan 09, 2020 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-72 92%    
  Jan 11, 2020 289   @ Tennessee Martin W 92-79 88%    
  Jan 16, 2020 264   Eastern Kentucky W 98-80 94%    
  Jan 18, 2020 210   Morehead St. W 87-72 90%    
  Jan 23, 2020 113   @ Murray St. W 82-79 61%    
  Jan 25, 2020 225   @ Austin Peay W 88-78 81%    
  Jan 30, 2020 322   @ Tennessee Tech W 80-63 93%    
  Feb 01, 2020 226   @ Jacksonville St. W 84-74 80%    
  Feb 06, 2020 113   Murray St. W 85-76 79%    
  Feb 08, 2020 225   Austin Peay W 91-75 91%    
  Feb 13, 2020 237   Tennessee St. W 89-72 92%    
  Feb 15, 2020 226   Jacksonville St. W 87-71 91%    
  Feb 20, 2020 210   @ Morehead St. W 84-75 77%    
  Feb 22, 2020 264   @ Eastern Kentucky W 95-83 85%    
  Feb 27, 2020 322   Tennessee Tech W 83-60 98%    
  Feb 29, 2020 237   @ Tennessee St. W 86-75 82%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 16 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.6 11.9 20.9 22.2 14.6 75.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.5 5.1 1.6 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.1 10.9 17.2 22.5 22.2 14.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 14.6    14.6
17-1 99.9% 22.2    21.5 0.7
16-2 92.8% 20.9    17.5 3.4 0.0
15-3 69.5% 11.9    7.8 3.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.0% 4.6    2.1 1.8 0.6 0.1
13-5 14.5% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 75.2% 75.2 63.5 10.2 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 14.6% 85.7% 77.8% 7.9% 8.6 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 2.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 2.1 35.6%
17-1 22.2% 74.9% 71.0% 3.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 4.7 6.9 1.9 0.3 5.6 13.4%
16-2 22.5% 65.7% 64.3% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 7.7 3.9%
15-3 17.2% 57.6% 57.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.4 4.6 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.3 0.7%
14-4 10.9% 47.3% 47.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 1.3 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.7 0.1%
13-5 6.1% 40.0% 40.0% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.7
12-6 3.4% 25.1% 25.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6
11-7 1.8% 26.5% 26.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3
10-8 0.8% 15.1% 15.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
9-9 0.3% 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 62.9% 60.5% 2.4% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.3 9.6 23.5 13.3 5.0 1.0 0.1 37.1 6.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 4.4 2.4 4.6 18.1 29.3 28.6 11.9 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 66.5% 7.5 0.4 0.4 13.6 8.6 12.5 13.2 4.7 1.2 11.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 68.9% 9.2 0.8 0.8 5.9 3.4 5.0 15.1 22.7 14.3 0.8