Belmont
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#88
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#135
Pace75.9#42
Improvement-0.1#182

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#64
First Shot+5.8#31
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#306
Layup/Dunks+4.3#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#18
Freethrows-3.8#350
Improvement-1.8#272

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#104
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#216
Layups/Dunks-0.7#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#67
Freethrows+2.9#32
Improvement+1.8#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.4% 50.9% 42.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 53.0% 54.5% 30.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round50.4% 50.9% 42.6%
Second Round10.0% 10.2% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.1% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 93.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 34 - 36 - 6
Quad 418 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 206   @ Illinois St. L 72-79 72%     0 - 1 -6.9 +0.7 -7.7
  Nov 11, 2019 264   Samford W 95-63 91%     1 - 1 +23.2 +6.6 +13.4
  Nov 16, 2019 155   @ Boston College W 100-85 58%     2 - 1 +18.8 +26.1 -8.2
  Nov 18, 2019 342   High Point W 90-51 97%     3 - 1 +23.0 +2.2 +17.8
  Nov 20, 2019 265   @ Lipscomb W 73-67 80%     4 - 1 +3.0 -4.5 +7.4
  Nov 23, 2019 91   @ Saint Louis L 55-60 40%     4 - 2 +3.5 -10.5 +13.9
  Nov 26, 2019 188   @ Eastern Washington L 82-87 67%     4 - 3 -3.4 -2.7 -0.1
  Nov 30, 2019 284   @ Middle Tennessee W 71-59 83%     5 - 3 +8.0 -2.3 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2019 265   Lipscomb W 80-75 91%     6 - 3 -3.8 -6.6 +2.3
  Dec 18, 2019 346   Kennesaw St. W 83-44 98%     7 - 3 +21.2 +0.4 +19.3
  Dec 21, 2019 40   Alabama L 72-92 31%     7 - 4 -8.8 -3.6 -3.0
  Dec 28, 2019 111   @ Western Kentucky W 79-62 47%     8 - 4 +23.9 +6.1 +17.5
  Jan 02, 2020 336   SIU Edwardsville L 69-79 96%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -25.2 -18.4 -6.0
  Jan 04, 2020 226   Eastern Illinois W 87-55 88%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +25.3 +7.2 +16.9
  Jan 09, 2020 331   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 89-64 90%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +17.2 +15.2 +3.0
  Jan 11, 2020 297   @ Tennessee Martin W 85-78 85%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +2.0 -4.1 +5.5
  Jan 16, 2020 323   Eastern Kentucky W 87-56 95%     12 - 5 4 - 1 +18.0 +5.5 +11.3
  Jan 18, 2020 290   Morehead St. W 82-66 94%    
  Jan 23, 2020 124   @ Murray St. W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 25, 2020 172   @ Austin Peay W 78-75 63%    
  Jan 30, 2020 339   @ Tennessee Tech W 78-62 93%    
  Feb 01, 2020 235   @ Jacksonville St. W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 06, 2020 124   Murray St. W 78-72 73%    
  Feb 08, 2020 172   Austin Peay W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 13, 2020 232   Tennessee St. W 83-70 89%    
  Feb 15, 2020 235   Jacksonville St. W 78-65 89%    
  Feb 20, 2020 290   @ Morehead St. W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 22, 2020 323   @ Eastern Kentucky W 86-73 89%    
  Feb 27, 2020 339   Tennessee Tech W 81-59 98%    
  Feb 29, 2020 232   @ Tennessee St. W 80-73 74%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.8 18.1 19.2 8.1 53.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.3 13.2 7.8 0.9 30.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 4.0 5.2 1.8 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.7 13.5 21.8 25.9 20.1 8.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 8.1    8.1
16-2 95.5% 19.2    16.0 3.2
15-3 69.7% 18.1    10.2 7.2 0.6
14-4 31.3% 6.8    2.1 3.6 1.2 0.0
13-5 5.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 53.0% 53.0 36.4 14.3 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 8.1% 66.7% 66.7% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.5 3.1 1.6 0.1 2.7 0.1%
16-2 20.1% 60.9% 60.9% 13.0 0.0 2.4 6.9 2.8 0.1 7.9
15-3 25.9% 54.7% 54.7% 13.6 0.7 5.9 6.5 1.0 0.0 11.7
14-4 21.8% 47.6% 47.6% 13.9 0.2 2.6 5.4 2.2 0.1 11.4
13-5 13.5% 38.9% 38.9% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.0 0.1 8.3
12-6 6.7% 31.4% 31.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 4.6
11-7 2.6% 22.3% 22.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.0
10-8 0.9% 18.8% 18.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
9-9 0.2% 14.0% 14.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 50.4% 50.4% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.6 6.4 17.6 18.3 6.9 0.6 49.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.4% 100.0% 12.2 0.2 9.8 57.8 29.7 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7% 0.2% 11.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%