Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
204 Prairie View 42.5%   16   8 - 10 6 - 1 17 - 12 15 - 3 -2.8      -3.6 281 +0.9 140 75.5 46 -2.4 206 +0.1 1
246 Texas Southern 27.5%   8 - 11 6 - 1 16 - 14 14 - 4 -4.9      -2.3 240 -2.6 248 80.3 16 -2.0 195 -1.0 2
311 Alcorn St. 9.0%   6 - 9 6 - 2 12 - 13 12 - 6 -8.9      -4.2 291 -4.7 311 71.2 120 -7.4 285 -4.2 3
318 Grambling St. 6.7%   5 - 11 3 - 4 11 - 16 9 - 9 -9.6      -7.5 337 -2.1 228 73.0 87 -9.2 306 -11.1 5
323 Southern 6.2%   6 - 13 5 - 3 11 - 18 10 - 8 -10.0      -5.1 307 -4.9 313 64.3 301 -9.2 308 -8.5 4
329 Jackson St. 5.1%   4 - 14 3 - 4 10 - 19 9 - 9 -10.5      -7.6 338 -2.9 257 70.1 149 -11.3 324 -11.9 6
341 Alabama St. 1.6%   3 - 17 2 - 5 8 - 23 7 - 11 -12.8      -7.4 335 -5.4 318 68.5 210 -17.0 344 -17.7 8
343 Alabama A&M 1.1%   5 - 13 2 - 5 9 - 20 6 - 12 -14.0      -9.3 346 -4.7 310 69.8 158 -11.3 323 -18.6 9
345 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.4%   2 - 16 2 - 5 6 - 23 6 - 12 -16.4      -13.0 351 -3.3 268 65.6 277 -16.1 342 -15.4 7
352 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   1 - 18 1 - 6 3 - 27 3 - 15 -20.8      -9.9 349 -11.0 349 89.5 1 -21.9 351 -21.1 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Prairie View 1.4 70.7 23.4 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 1.8 39.4 44.4 12.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Alcorn St. 3.1 8.0 21.4 39.5 18.4 8.7 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 4.8 0.6 3.8 14.4 26.2 26.3 17.8 7.2 2.7 0.9 0.1
Southern 4.1 1.6 8.1 23.8 29.4 21.1 11.8 3.2 0.8 0.2
Jackson St. 5.2 0.3 2.2 9.7 19.3 25.2 24.8 12.3 4.6 1.4 0.2
Alabama St. 7.0 0.2 1.0 4.3 9.4 17.0 30.2 22.6 13.2 2.1
Alabama A&M 7.6 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.4 12.2 23.7 28.0 23.2 4.6
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7.8 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.0 9.2 20.0 27.6 30.7 6.2
Mississippi Valley 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.6 18.7 71.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Prairie View 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 5.5 12.1 20.9 27.0 22.2 10.1
Texas Southern 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.9 12.3 20.3 25.0 20.4 11.0 2.6
Alcorn St. 12 - 6 0.1 0.5 2.5 7.0 15.2 21.1 22.6 17.4 9.6 3.6 0.5
Grambling St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 3.7 7.6 15.6 21.7 23.1 16.9 7.7 2.5 0.4
Southern 10 - 8 0.1 0.7 3.7 10.6 18.4 23.7 20.2 14.0 6.6 1.7 0.2
Jackson St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.4 13.4 20.1 22.6 19.1 11.2 4.7 1.2 0.1
Alabama St. 7 - 11 0.3 2.1 7.5 15.3 21.4 21.3 16.8 10.0 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Alabama A&M 6 - 12 1.1 5.5 13.8 19.5 21.8 18.4 11.9 5.3 2.1 0.5 0.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6 - 12 1.4 7.9 17.0 22.6 22.1 15.7 8.2 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 13.4 27.4 27.5 18.5 8.9 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Prairie View 70.7% 53.7 15.2 1.7 0.2
Texas Southern 39.4% 24.0 13.8 1.5 0.1
Alcorn St. 8.0% 3.0 3.6 1.3 0.1
Grambling St. 0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
Southern 1.6% 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1
Jackson St. 0.3% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Alabama St.
Alabama A&M
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Prairie View 42.5% 42.5% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.1 7.6 33.7 57.5 0.0%
Texas Southern 27.5% 27.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 5.0 21.7 72.5 0.0%
Alcorn St. 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.1 8.8 91.1 0.0%
Grambling St. 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 6.6 93.3 0.0%
Southern 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 6.2 93.8 0.0%
Jackson St. 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 5.1 94.9 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Alabama A&M 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Prairie View 42.5% 21.8% 32.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 27.5% 13.7% 20.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 9.0% 8.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 6.7% 6.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 6.2% 6.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 5.1% 5.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 64.5% 0.6 35.5 64.5
2nd Round 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0