Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
251 Grambling St. 29.8%   16   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 13 - 5 -4.7      -2.5 254 -2.2 236 73.0 98 +5.6 104 0.0 1
279 Texas Southern 21.7%   0 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 16 12 - 6 -6.2      -1.9 234 -4.3 297 83.6 10 -5.5 253 0.0 1
283 Prairie View 20.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 12 - 6 -6.5      -4.0 292 -2.5 245 75.6 63 -6.3 259 0.0 1
316 Jackson St. 8.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 10 - 8 -10.2      -5.3 314 -4.9 308 67.7 239 -12.8 317 0.0 1
320 Alabama St. 7.8%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 10 - 8 -10.5      -6.1 323 -4.4 299 67.5 245 -2.9 222 0.0 1
339 Alcorn St. 5.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 16 9 - 9 -12.1      -7.2 333 -4.9 307 65.5 291 -10.9 304 0.0 1
344 Southern 3.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 20 8 - 10 -13.7      -8.8 343 -5.0 311 65.9 282 -5.8 255 0.0 1
346 Arkansas Pine Bluff 2.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 22 7 - 11 -14.2      -9.4 346 -4.8 306 67.3 253 -4.7 245 0.0 1
351 Alabama A&M 0.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 5 - 24 5 - 13 -19.1      -12.2 351 -6.9 338 76.6 50 -11.3 306 0.0 1
352 Mississippi Valley 0.2%   0 - 4 0 - 0 4 - 26 4 - 14 -20.2      -9.1 345 -11.1 352 101.1 1 -9.3 287 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Grambling St. 2.5 40.6 21.7 14.2 9.6 6.1 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Texas Southern 2.9 28.1 23.0 17.4 12.2 8.5 5.3 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2
Prairie View 3.1 25.5 22.2 17.8 12.9 9.2 6.0 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.2
Jackson St. 4.5 8.9 12.5 14.7 15.5 14.7 13.0 9.7 6.6 3.5 1.1
Alabama St. 4.6 8.5 11.8 14.3 15.5 15.2 13.1 10.2 6.7 3.5 1.3
Alcorn St. 5.4 5.1 7.9 10.7 12.7 14.3 15.0 13.7 10.9 6.7 3.0
Southern 6.1 2.7 4.9 7.3 10.2 12.8 15.0 16.2 15.2 10.3 5.4
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6.3 2.1 4.2 6.5 9.2 12.0 14.6 16.5 16.6 11.8 6.5
Alabama A&M 8.3 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.0 6.8 11.5 17.7 27.4 28.7
Mississippi Valley 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.9 5.2 9.4 16.4 27.6 36.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Grambling St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.6 6.8 9.5 11.6 13.4 14.4 13.4 10.7 6.8 2.5
Texas Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.5 9.3 11.5 13.5 14.3 13.2 10.9 7.0 3.6 1.0
Prairie View 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.9 7.2 9.7 12.2 13.8 13.8 12.6 9.8 6.3 3.1 0.8
Jackson St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.8 8.3 10.7 12.0 13.0 12.2 10.9 8.6 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
Alabama St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.4 10.8 12.6 13.1 12.3 10.6 8.3 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.4 6.5 9.0 11.1 12.3 12.2 11.6 10.0 7.7 5.3 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
Southern 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.7 9.3 11.4 12.8 12.7 11.6 9.5 7.5 5.1 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.0 7.6 10.5 12.1 12.9 12.6 10.9 9.0 6.4 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 5 - 13 2.5 7.0 11.9 15.0 15.8 14.1 11.5 8.6 5.8 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 4 - 14 3.5 9.2 14.4 16.7 16.1 13.7 10.3 7.0 4.5 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grambling St. 40.6% 30.1 8.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas Southern 28.1% 19.1 7.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 25.5% 17.0 6.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 8.9% 5.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 8.5% 4.8 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 5.1% 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern 2.7% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grambling St. 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.9 23.0 70.2 0.0%
Texas Southern 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 19.4 78.3 0.0%
Prairie View 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 19.1 79.7 0.0%
Jackson St. 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 8.4 91.6 0.0%
Alabama St. 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.6 92.2 0.0%
Alcorn St. 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 5.4 94.5 0.0%
Southern 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.1 96.8 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 2.6 97.3 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Grambling St. 29.8% 17.7% 21.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 21.7% 16.6% 14.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 20.3% 17.2% 12.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 8.4% 8.1% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 7.8% 7.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 5.5% 5.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 3.2% 3.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 2.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 62.7% 0.6 37.3 62.7
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0