Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.7#343
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#253
Pace65.9#276
Improvement-0.1#179

Offense
Total Offense-8.5#341
First Shot-8.8#343
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#158
Layup/Dunks-1.3#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#336
Freethrows-1.1#238
Improvement+0.4#106

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#314
First Shot-1.1#204
After Offensive Rebounds-4.1#338
Layups/Dunks+0.0#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#32
Freethrows-7.1#348
Improvement-0.5#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 7.7% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.4% 23.0% 5.7%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 59.8% 38.2%
Conference Champion 2.8% 6.7% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 3.4% 10.5%
First Four3.4% 7.1% 3.3%
First Round1.6% 3.8% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 4.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 49 - 129 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 113   @ Murray St. L 49-69 4%     0 - 1 -13.8 -24.1 +11.0
  Nov 14, 2019 92   @ New Mexico St. L 63-79 3%     0 - 2 -7.6 -2.9 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2019 137   @ Nebraska L 57-75 4%    
  Nov 25, 2019 206   @ Nebraska Omaha L 62-76 9%    
  Nov 26, 2019 265   IUPUI L 67-72 31%    
  Dec 01, 2019 207   @ Tulane L 63-77 10%    
  Dec 08, 2019 134   @ Akron L 55-74 4%    
  Dec 12, 2019 109   @ Wright St. L 60-80 4%    
  Dec 14, 2019 37   @ Butler L 50-78 1%    
  Dec 18, 2019 221   @ California Baptist L 65-78 11%    
  Dec 20, 2019 170   @ UC Santa Barbara L 58-74 7%    
  Jan 04, 2020 279   @ Texas Southern L 69-79 18%    
  Jan 06, 2020 268   @ Prairie View L 62-73 16%    
  Jan 11, 2020 270   Grambling St. L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 13, 2020 317   Jackson St. L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 18, 2020 341   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 20, 2020 352   @ Mississippi Valley W 81-77 62%    
  Jan 25, 2020 324   Alabama St. W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 27, 2020 351   Alabama A&M W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 01, 2020 338   Alcorn St. W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 270   @ Grambling St. L 64-75 17%    
  Feb 10, 2020 317   @ Jackson St. L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 15, 2020 341   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 65-62 59%    
  Feb 17, 2020 352   Mississippi Valley W 84-74 80%    
  Feb 22, 2020 324   @ Alabama St. L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 24, 2020 351   @ Alabama A&M W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 338   @ Alcorn St. L 65-69 36%    
  Mar 05, 2020 279   Texas Southern L 72-76 35%    
  Mar 07, 2020 268   Prairie View L 65-70 33%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 3.1 0.7 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.5 6.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 5.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.9 3.1 1.2 0.1 10.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.3 7.0 9.3 12.1 12.5 12.5 11.3 9.2 7.3 5.1 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 77.2% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 51.0% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.7% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 51.7% 51.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 29.5% 29.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
15-3 0.8% 28.1% 28.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.6
14-4 1.7% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 0.3 1.4
13-5 3.2% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.4 2.8
12-6 5.1% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.6 4.6
11-7 7.3% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.5 6.9
10-8 9.2% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.5 8.7
9-9 11.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.4 10.9
8-10 12.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.2
7-11 12.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.3
6-12 12.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.0
5-13 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-15 4.3% 4.3
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.5 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%