Preseason Rankings
Southland
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
186 Sam Houston St. 25.2%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 14 - 6 -1.9      -0.6 202 -1.3 204 66.5 240 0.0 1 0.0 1
243 New Orleans 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 13 - 7 -4.6      -3.6 278 -1.0 195 70.0 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Lamar 8.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 -6.9      -3.6 275 -3.3 270 69.9 147 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 Central Arkansas 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 11 - 9 -6.9      -2.0 235 -5.0 311 75.4 47 0.0 1 0.0 1
286 Abilene Christian 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 10 -7.0      -5.9 324 -1.1 198 64.7 289 0.0 1 0.0 1
290 Stephen F. Austin 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 -7.2      -5.5 318 -1.7 217 71.3 111 0.0 1 0.0 1
291 TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 10 -7.3      -6.4 331 -0.9 190 63.7 311 0.0 1 0.0 1
292 Houston Baptist 7.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 10 -7.5      +0.2 169 -7.7 347 81.7 11 0.0 1 0.0 1
299 SE Louisiana 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 10 - 10 -8.0      -5.8 321 -2.2 233 64.6 292 0.0 1 0.0 1
309 Nicholls St. 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 9 - 11 -8.7      -3.4 271 -5.3 323 71.1 114 0.0 1 0.0 1
316 McNeese St. 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 9 - 11 -9.5      -4.1 288 -5.4 325 65.8 263 0.0 1 0.0 1
344 Incarnate Word 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 14 -13.7      -5.3 315 -8.4 352 64.2 298 0.0 1 0.0 1
347 Northwestern St. 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 19 6 - 14 -14.1      -8.7 345 -5.5 327 70.6 126 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Sam Houston St. 3.5 33.1 17.7 12.1 9.1 6.8 5.6 4.3 3.7 2.7 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.3
New Orleans 4.4 20.2 16.0 12.9 10.2 8.7 7.5 6.3 5.4 4.4 3.3 2.5 1.8 0.9
Lamar 6.0 9.4 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.4 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.0 6.1 5.9 4.5 2.7
Central Arkansas 6.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.1 8.7 8.0 7.3 6.9 6.0 4.4 2.9
Abilene Christian 6.1 8.8 9.5 9.6 9.5 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.4 7.4 6.9 6.1 4.8 2.7
Stephen F. Austin 6.2 8.6 9.2 9.3 9.5 8.9 8.5 8.7 8.1 7.7 7.1 6.2 4.9 3.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.4 7.4 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.0 8.8 9.1 8.9 8.0 7.3 6.5 5.0 3.1
Houston Baptist 6.2 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.7 9.4 8.7 9.0 8.4 7.6 6.8 5.8 4.9 3.0
SE Louisiana 6.7 6.8 7.7 8.5 8.4 9.0 8.7 8.6 8.3 8.7 7.9 7.4 6.0 4.0
Nicholls St. 7.1 5.2 6.2 7.2 7.9 8.3 8.7 8.7 9.2 9.3 8.9 8.5 7.0 4.9
McNeese St. 7.4 4.6 6.0 6.9 7.4 8.3 8.0 8.1 9.0 9.2 9.3 8.5 8.2 6.4
Incarnate Word 9.9 0.8 1.5 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.4 5.5 7.0 8.6 10.6 13.3 17.3 23.0
Northwestern St. 10.1 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.2 4.2 5.4 6.4 8.3 10.2 13.7 17.8 24.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Sam Houston St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 3.2 4.2 6.0 6.9 9.0 10.0 11.5 11.7 10.6 9.6 6.7 4.4 1.5
New Orleans 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.4 5.2 6.4 7.7 9.6 10.5 10.6 10.8 9.8 8.3 6.2 4.0 1.9 0.6
Lamar 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.3 3.8 4.8 6.6 7.9 9.2 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.4 7.6 6.2 4.4 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.2
Central Arkansas 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.4 5.4 7.4 8.2 9.5 10.2 10.5 10.0 8.9 7.4 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
Abilene Christian 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.7 7.2 8.3 10.0 9.9 10.0 9.5 9.3 7.0 6.1 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.9 7.6 8.6 9.2 10.1 10.0 9.8 8.6 7.6 5.5 3.9 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.3 5.8 7.5 9.0 10.2 10.7 10.3 9.6 8.4 7.0 4.8 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Houston Baptist 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.8 3.9 5.4 7.0 8.6 9.7 10.3 10.7 9.9 8.5 7.2 5.6 3.8 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1
SE Louisiana 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.1 3.5 4.9 6.6 8.1 9.3 9.8 10.4 10.0 8.9 8.0 6.3 4.4 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Nicholls St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.1 5.6 7.6 9.2 9.8 10.7 10.4 9.1 8.5 7.1 5.0 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
McNeese St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.5 6.3 7.9 9.7 10.2 9.7 9.8 9.0 8.2 6.6 4.6 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Incarnate Word 6 - 14 1.4 4.2 6.9 9.0 11.1 11.5 11.5 10.7 9.0 7.4 6.1 4.0 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 6 - 14 1.8 4.2 7.2 9.5 11.7 12.0 11.4 10.5 9.0 6.8 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Sam Houston St. 33.1% 24.3 6.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 20.2% 13.7 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lamar 9.4% 5.9 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 9.1% 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 8.8% 5.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 8.6% 5.1 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.4% 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Houston Baptist 8.7% 5.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 6.8% 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 5.2% 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
McNeese St. 4.6% 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Sam Houston St. 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.4 7.8 10.0 74.8 0.0%
New Orleans 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.5 7.7 85.2 0.0%
Lamar 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.9 91.9 0.0%
Central Arkansas 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.9 92.4 0.0%
Abilene Christian 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 4.8 92.4 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.6 92.8 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.5 93.3 0.0%
Houston Baptist 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.7 92.9 0.0%
SE Louisiana 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.1 94.1 0.0%
Nicholls St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.2 95.4 0.0%
McNeese St. 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.0 96.2 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Sam Houston St. 25.2% 5.4% 22.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 14.8% 4.4% 12.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 8.1% 2.9% 6.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 7.6% 3.0% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 7.6% 3.1% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 7.2% 2.9% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.7% 3.0% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 7.1% 3.2% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 5.9% 2.7% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 4.6% 2.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 3.8% 2.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 82.4% 0.8 17.6 82.4 0.0
2nd Round 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0