Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2019-20



View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan St. Auto 98.3% 40.3% 58.0% 97.1%
1  Kansas Auto 95.2% 34.9% 60.4% 92.7%
1  Kentucky Auto 96.1% 33.7% 62.5% 94.2%
1  Duke Auto 95.7% 25.0% 70.7% 94.2%
2  North Carolina At-Large 93.5% 20.8% 72.7% 91.8%
2  Louisville At-Large 94.0% 21.2% 72.8% 92.4%
2  Florida At-Large 90.5% 21.3% 69.2% 87.9%
2  Maryland At-Large 86.9% 14.1% 72.8% 84.7%
3  Villanova Auto 85.7% 26.4% 59.2% 80.5%
3  Purdue At-Large 84.3% 12.2% 72.1% 82.1%
3  Virginia At-Large 86.9% 13.8% 73.1% 84.8%
3  Texas Tech At-Large 82.0% 16.8% 65.2% 78.4%
4  Ohio St. At-Large 77.9% 9.5% 68.4% 75.6%
4  Gonzaga Auto 88.1% 52.1% 36.0% 75.2%
4  Baylor At-Large 76.4% 13.6% 62.9% 72.7%
4  Seton Hall At-Large 71.4% 16.2% 55.2% 65.9%
5  Michigan At-Large 61.1% 5.3% 55.8% 58.9%
5  Florida St. At-Large 68.5% 5.4% 63.1% 66.7%
5  Texas At-Large 62.9% 8.6% 54.3% 59.4%
5  LSU At-Large 71.5% 7.7% 63.8% 69.1%
6  Wisconsin At-Large 56.1% 4.0% 52.2% 54.3%
6  Auburn At-Large 68.5% 7.5% 61.1% 66.0%
6  Tennessee At-Large 63.4% 6.8% 56.6% 60.7%
6  Xavier At-Large 66.8% 13.1% 53.7% 61.8%
7  Oklahoma At-Large 52.1% 5.5% 46.6% 49.3%
7  Iowa St. At-Large 51.2% 5.9% 45.3% 48.1%
7  North Carolina St. At-Large 65.0% 5.0% 59.9% 63.1%
7  Oregon Auto 76.5% 25.3% 51.2% 68.5%
8  Iowa At-Large 49.8% 3.3% 46.5% 48.1%
8  Marquette At-Large 61.9% 11.8% 50.2% 56.8%
8  Illinois At-Large 48.5% 3.1% 45.4% 46.8%
8  Creighton At-Large 54.2% 8.8% 45.4% 49.8%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Alabama At-Large 50.7% 4.2% 46.5% 48.5%
9  Providence At-Large 55.9% 9.5% 46.4% 51.3%
9  Arizona At-Large 65.0% 17.9% 47.1% 57.4%
9  Memphis Auto 67.4% 21.4% 46.0% 58.5%
10  Cincinnati At-Large 66.0% 20.7% 45.3% 57.1%
10  Houston At-Large 63.8% 20.1% 43.8% 54.8%
10  St. Mary's At-Large 67.9% 28.2% 39.7% 55.3%
10  Colorado At-Large 54.7% 14.3% 40.3% 47.1%
11  Indiana At-Large 45.2% 2.4% 42.8% 43.8%
11  Notre Dame At-Large 48.3% 2.8% 45.5% 46.8%
11  Penn St. At-Large 46.3% 2.9% 43.4% 44.7%
11  Mississippi St. At-Large 48.0% 3.7% 44.3% 46.0%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 66.1% 33.1% 33.1% 49.4%
11  Utah St. Auto 58.2% 39.0% 19.3% 31.6%
12  Western Kentucky Auto 32.9% 27.6% 5.3% 7.3%
12  East Tennessee St. Auto 35.8% 32.0% 3.8% 5.6%
12  Harvard Auto 45.6% 41.2% 4.4% 7.5%
12  New Mexico St. Auto 61.0% 58.1% 2.8% 6.8%
13  Buffalo Auto 17.5% 14.6% 2.9% 3.4%
13  Belmont Auto 48.3% 46.5% 1.8% 3.4%
13  Loyola Chicago Auto 20.8% 19.2% 1.6% 2.0%
13  Georgia Southern Auto 21.3% 20.5% 0.8% 1.0%
14  Vermont Auto 56.2% 55.5% 0.7% 1.5%
14  Liberty Auto 48.7% 48.1% 0.6% 1.2%
14  Wright St. Auto 28.7% 27.9% 0.8% 1.1%
14  College of Charleston Auto 27.5% 26.9% 0.6% 0.8%
15  UC Irvine Auto 39.1% 38.5% 0.6% 1.0%
15  Colgate Auto 29.4% 29.1% 0.4% 0.5%
15  Radford Auto 31.4% 31.2% 0.2% 0.3%
15  North Dakota St. Auto 25.1% 25.1% 0.1% 0.1%
16  Iona Auto 27.2% 27.1% 0.1% 0.1%
16  Eastern Washington Auto 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Sam Houston St. Auto 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 0.0%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Texas Southern Auto 23.8% 23.8%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 13.8% 13.8%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Virginia 86.9% 13.8% 73.1% 84.8%
Maryland 86.9% 14.1% 72.8% 84.7%
Purdue 84.3% 12.2% 72.1% 82.1%
Texas Tech 82.0% 16.8% 65.2% 78.4%
Ohio St. 77.9% 9.5% 68.4% 75.6%
Baylor 76.4% 13.6% 62.9% 72.7%
LSU 71.5% 7.7% 63.8% 69.1%
Florida St. 68.5% 5.4% 63.1% 66.7%
Auburn 68.5% 7.5% 61.1% 66.0%
Seton Hall 71.4% 16.2% 55.2% 65.9%
North Carolina St. 65.0% 5.0% 59.9% 63.1%
Xavier 66.8% 13.1% 53.7% 61.8%
Tennessee 63.4% 6.8% 56.6% 60.7%
Texas 62.9% 8.6% 54.3% 59.4%
Michigan 61.1% 5.3% 55.8% 58.9%
Arizona 65.0% 17.9% 47.1% 57.4%
Cincinnati 66.0% 20.7% 45.3% 57.1%
Marquette 61.9% 11.8% 50.2% 56.8%
St. Mary's 67.9% 28.2% 39.7% 55.3%
Houston 63.8% 20.1% 43.8% 54.8%
Wisconsin 56.1% 4.0% 52.2% 54.3%
Providence 55.9% 9.5% 46.4% 51.3%
Creighton 54.2% 8.8% 45.4% 49.8%
Oklahoma 52.1% 5.5% 46.6% 49.3%
Alabama 50.7% 4.2% 46.5% 48.5%
Iowa St. 51.2% 5.9% 45.3% 48.1%
Iowa 49.8% 3.3% 46.5% 48.1%
Colorado 54.7% 14.3% 40.3% 47.1%
Illinois 48.5% 3.1% 45.4% 46.8%
Notre Dame 48.3% 2.8% 45.5% 46.8%
Mississippi St. 48.0% 3.7% 44.3% 46.0%
Penn St. 46.3% 2.9% 43.4% 44.7%
Indiana 45.2% 2.4% 42.8% 43.8%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Washington 49.9% 12.9% 37.0% 42.5%
West Virginia 44.8% 4.4% 40.4% 42.3%
Georgetown 44.9% 6.3% 38.6% 41.2%
Mississippi 42.8% 3.1% 39.8% 41.0%
Missouri 42.8% 3.1% 39.7% 41.0%
Oklahoma St. 43.0% 4.2% 38.7% 40.4%
Arkansas 40.8% 2.7% 38.1% 39.1%
Kansas St. 40.9% 4.1% 36.8% 38.3%
Wichita St. 43.2% 10.3% 32.9% 36.7%
Butler 40.1% 5.6% 34.5% 36.5%
Texas A&M 37.2% 2.4% 34.8% 35.7%
Syracuse 36.3% 1.5% 34.8% 35.4%
Georgia 35.3% 2.3% 33.0% 33.8%
Arizona St. 36.1% 7.4% 28.7% 31.0%
Miami (FL) 30.3% 1.4% 28.9% 29.3%
USC 34.1% 7.9% 26.2% 28.5%
Davidson 41.9% 20.1% 21.8% 27.3%
Rutgers 28.0% 1.2% 26.7% 27.1%
TCU 28.4% 2.0% 26.4% 27.0%
BYU 32.1% 9.4% 22.7% 25.0%
Dayton 37.7% 17.1% 20.6% 24.8%
Minnesota 23.1% 1.0% 22.0% 22.3%
Pittsburgh 21.8% 0.7% 21.1% 21.3%
Connecticut 26.1% 6.6% 19.5% 20.9%
Georgia Tech 21.3% 0.6% 20.7% 20.9%
South Carolina 21.1% 1.3% 19.7% 20.0%
South Florida 24.5% 5.8% 18.7% 19.9%
Temple 22.8% 5.1% 17.7% 18.6%
Oregon St. 22.5% 5.4% 17.1% 18.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Clemson 18.3% 0.6% 17.7% 17.8%
UCLA 21.1% 4.3% 16.8% 17.5%
Nebraska 15.2% 0.5% 14.6% 14.7%
Virginia Tech 14.5% 0.6% 13.9% 13.9%
Rhode Island 20.5% 8.8% 11.7% 12.8%
Wake Forest 12.8% 0.3% 12.4% 12.5%
San Diego St. 24.4% 15.3% 9.2% 10.8%
St. John's 11.9% 1.3% 10.6% 10.7%
SMU 14.0% 3.8% 10.1% 10.5%
Boston College 10.1% 0.2% 9.9% 9.9%
DePaul 10.2% 1.0% 9.3% 9.3%
Central Florida 11.9% 3.0% 9.0% 9.2%
Northwestern 9.2% 0.2% 8.9% 9.0%
Utah 9.7% 2.0% 7.7% 7.9%
Tulsa 9.9% 3.0% 6.9% 7.1%
Vanderbilt 7.0% 0.2% 6.8% 6.8%
Stanford 7.8% 1.7% 6.1% 6.2%
Boise St. 16.6% 11.3% 5.4% 6.0%
San Francisco 8.8% 3.1% 5.7% 5.9%
New Mexico 15.7% 10.5% 5.2% 5.8%
Richmond 10.5% 5.1% 5.4% 5.7%
Nevada 14.0% 9.5% 4.5% 5.0%
Pepperdine 6.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.6%
St. Bonaventure 8.5% 5.3% 3.2% 3.4%
Duquesne 6.6% 3.7% 2.9% 3.0%
UNC Greensboro 20.5% 18.3% 2.2% 2.6%
Furman 19.0% 16.8% 2.2% 2.6%
Bowling Green 16.7% 14.6% 2.2% 2.5%
Toledo 16.3% 14.2% 2.1% 2.5%
Penn 22.5% 20.6% 1.9% 2.4%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Ball St. 14.6% 12.5% 2.1% 2.4%
Northern Iowa 19.6% 17.7% 1.9% 2.3%
Fresno St. 8.8% 6.7% 2.1% 2.2%
California 2.4% 0.4% 2.0% 2.0%
Wofford 17.5% 15.9% 1.6% 1.9%
Saint Louis 3.7% 2.3% 1.4% 1.5%
Texas San Antonio 13.7% 12.5% 1.3% 1.4%
Loyola Marymount 2.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4%
Louisiana Tech 14.8% 13.6% 1.2% 1.4%
Kent St. 10.6% 9.4% 1.2% 1.3%
George Mason 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3%
Washington St. 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 1.3%
Missouri St. 16.6% 15.6% 1.0% 1.2%
Santa Clara 3.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2%
UNLV 4.8% 3.7% 1.1% 1.1%
San Diego 2.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1%
Bradley 12.8% 12.0% 0.8% 1.0%
Princeton 9.9% 9.1% 0.8% 0.9%
Samford 9.0% 8.2% 0.7% 0.8%
Yale 11.1% 10.4% 0.7% 0.8%
Miami (OH) 7.8% 7.1% 0.7% 0.7%
Northern Illinois 7.8% 7.1% 0.6% 0.7%
Texas Arlington 16.2% 15.6% 0.6% 0.7%
Akron 9.2% 8.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Central Michigan 6.9% 6.2% 0.6% 0.7%
Old Dominion 8.3% 7.7% 0.6% 0.6%
Murray St. 26.3% 25.9% 0.4% 0.6%
Drake 10.8% 10.2% 0.5% 0.6%
Illinois-Chicago 18.4% 18.0% 0.5% 0.6%
Northern Kentucky 18.0% 17.6% 0.4% 0.5%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Indiana St. 8.5% 8.0% 0.4% 0.5%
North Texas 7.3% 6.9% 0.4% 0.5%
Northeastern 21.9% 21.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Grand Canyon 14.3% 13.9% 0.4% 0.4%
UAB 7.7% 7.3% 0.4% 0.4%
UTEP 5.1% 4.7% 0.4% 0.4%
Middle Tennessee 4.7% 4.3% 0.4% 0.4%
Green Bay 11.9% 11.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Brown 7.2% 6.9% 0.3% 0.3%
Air Force 2.6% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3%
South Alabama 14.7% 14.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Colorado St. 1.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3%
Texas St. 11.5% 11.2% 0.3% 0.3%
George Washington 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3%
La Salle 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Hofstra 18.3% 18.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Florida Atlantic 5.9% 5.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Bucknell 18.1% 17.9% 0.2% 0.3%
Georgia St. 10.0% 9.8% 0.2% 0.2%
East Carolina 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Columbia 6.8% 6.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Saint Joseph's 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Illinois St. 5.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.2%
Seattle 8.8% 8.6% 0.2% 0.2%
North Florida 17.2% 17.1% 0.1% 0.2%
UC Santa Barbara 19.0% 18.8% 0.1% 0.2%
Evansville 5.2% 5.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Dartmouth 4.7% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Marshall 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Coastal Carolina 9.5% 9.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
South Dakota 20.7% 20.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Eastern Michigan 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Massachusetts 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Tulane 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Cal St. Bakersfield 5.4% 5.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida International 3.3% 3.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Fordham 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Mercer 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Towson 10.5% 10.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Albany 13.9% 13.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Southern Illinois 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Valparaiso 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Gardner-Webb 18.1% 18.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Lipscomb 12.4% 12.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Louisiana 5.2% 5.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Hawaii 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.1%
NJIT 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Detroit Mercy 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 6.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 9.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 13.3% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Rice 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0%
American 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland Baltimore Co. 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 7.3% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 9.8% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 4.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 6.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 9.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Morehead St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 13.2% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Umass Lowell 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%