Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
235 NC Central 26.7%   16   1 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 6 8 - 3 -4.8      -2.5 238 -2.3 232 66.5 256 -2.4 190 0.0 1
257 Morgan St. 21.0%   5 - 3 2 - 2 12 - 6 9 - 5 -6.0      -1.8 215 -4.2 285 73.0 92 -1.8 185 -8.4 7
267 Norfolk St. 21.9%   7 - 5 3 - 2 14 - 9 10 - 6 -6.4      -3.6 267 -2.8 248 69.0 203 -3.8 217 -8.8 8
284 Florida A&M 11.5%   2 - 6 1 - 0 6 - 9 5 - 3 -7.7      -5.1 303 -2.5 241 69.9 173 -3.9 220 -7.5 6
315 N.C. A&T 5.1%   4 - 9 2 - 0 7 - 13 5 - 4 -10.4      -4.8 294 -5.6 313 78.2 29 -10.4 305 -1.5 5
316 Coppin St. 7.5%   5 - 9 4 - 1 10 - 15 9 - 7 -10.5      -9.3 337 -1.2 209 88.4 1 -5.7 251 -0.9 4
327 Howard 4.8%   1 - 3 0 - 0 6 - 11 5 - 8 -12.4      -2.0 223 -10.3 344 72.8 98 -10.9 311 0.0 1
328 Maryland Eastern Shore 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 -12.4      -17.4 348 +4.9 56 67.7 232 0.0 166 0.0 1
344 Delaware St. 0.3%   0 - 9 0 - 4 2 - 17 2 - 12 -18.2      -7.4 325 -10.8 345 81.8 9 -20.9 342 -23.7 9
345 South Carolina St. 0.1%   0 - 13 0 - 3 1 - 20 1 - 10 -19.7      -11.0 342 -8.7 340 75.4 45 -23.6 346 -26.9 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
NC Central 3.3 8.4 23.0 28.5 21.5 8.9 5.4 3.6 0.5 0.1
Morgan St. 2.6 24.5 29.0 22.4 17.1 4.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
Norfolk St. 1.8 56.1 23.3 11.8 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 5.6 0.0 0.4 4.3 11.2 30.0 28.1 22.0 3.3 0.6
N.C. A&T 5.5 0.0 0.8 4.9 12.1 33.0 28.9 18.4 1.7 0.2
Coppin St. 2.4 33.1 26.3 19.3 14.4 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
Howard 5.4 4.7 5.9 7.6 10.8 19.2 20.0 19.2 10.5 2.2
Maryland Eastern Shore 9.5 4.6 39.9 55.5
Delaware St. 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.7 7.6 18.4 54.0 16.2
South Carolina St. 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 6.3 33.2 58.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
NC Central 8 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 5.2 9.6 15.3 19.8 21.1 17.2 8.2
Morgan St. 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 5.2 10.8 17.3 21.8 21.6 14.9 5.8
Norfolk St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.7 8.8 14.9 21.0 21.7 17.2 8.8 2.2
Florida A&M 5 - 11 0.5 3.2 9.8 20.0 26.9 23.1 12.7 3.8
N.C. A&T 5 - 11 0.7 5.6 20.1 29.0 25.2 13.5 5.0 0.8
Coppin St. 9 - 7 0.2 1.6 4.8 9.7 15.4 19.2 19.3 14.9 9.1 4.3 1.3 0.2
Howard 5 - 11 1.1 4.3 8.3 12.3 14.4 15.0 14.2 11.8 8.3 5.5 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
Maryland Eastern Shore 0 - 16 100.0
Delaware St. 2 - 14 11.7 23.5 26.2 20.0 11.5 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina St. 1 - 15 36.3 34.7 18.9 7.3 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
NC Central 8.4% 2.2 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0
Morgan St. 24.5% 12.4 9.0 2.7 0.4 0.0
Norfolk St. 56.1% 39.8 12.8 3.0 0.4 0.0
Florida A&M 0.0% 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coppin St. 33.1% 20.9 9.2 2.5 0.4 0.0
Howard 4.7% 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Maryland Eastern Shore
Delaware St. 0.0% 0.0
South Carolina St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
NC Central 26.7% 26.7% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 20.3 73.3 0.0%
Morgan St. 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.9 12.8 79.0 0.0%
Norfolk St. 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.0 18.4 78.2 0.0%
Florida A&M 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 11.0 88.5 0.0%
N.C. A&T 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 5.1 94.9 0.0%
Coppin St. 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 7.5 92.5 0.0%
Howard 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.3 95.2 0.0%
Maryland Eastern Shore 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Delaware St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
South Carolina St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
NC Central 26.7% 16.0% 18.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morgan St. 21.0% 7.6% 16.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Norfolk St. 21.9% 13.6% 13.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 11.5% 10.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 5.1% 5.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coppin St. 7.5% 7.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Howard 4.8% 3.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland Eastern Shore 1.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 61.9% 0.6 38.1 61.9
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0