Southland
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
115 Abilene Christian 40.8%   15   8 - 3 4 - 1 17 - 5 13 - 3 +3.9      -3.0 249 +6.8 26 68.8 210 +4.8 106 -0.6 4
139 Stephen F. Austin 28.9%   6 - 2 6 - 0 13 - 5 13 - 3 +1.8      +1.8 126 0.0 172 75.7 43 -1.3 180 +3.5 2
181 Sam Houston St. 14.8%   8 - 5 6 - 0 15 - 8 13 - 3 -1.3      -0.8 189 -0.4 181 75.3 48 +7.1 78 +11.5 1
185 Nicholls St. 13.7%   8 - 5 6 - 1 15 - 7 13 - 3 -1.8      -0.9 191 -0.9 195 73.4 80 -0.5 172 +0.7 3
293 Central Arkansas 0.4%   2 - 11 2 - 4 6 - 17 6 - 10 -8.3      -1.8 213 -6.5 327 79.7 16 -9.4 296 -8.7 8
299 New Orleans 0.5%   3 - 10 3 - 3 8 - 15 8 - 8 -8.8      -3.4 260 -5.3 308 74.6 60 -12.5 318 -8.1 6
310 Lamar 0.3%   3 - 11 2 - 4 8 - 17 7 - 10 -9.9      -7.0 323 -3.0 254 73.3 84 -10.6 307 -8.2 7
314 Northwestern St. 0.2%   2 - 14 2 - 4 7 - 19 7 - 9 -10.3      -4.9 296 -5.5 311 76.8 36 -14.6 331 -12.2 9
320 Incarnate Word 0.2%   3 - 6 3 - 2 7 - 13 7 - 9 -10.8      -4.5 285 -6.4 325 65.1 285 -9.4 294 -6.6 5
325 SE Louisiana 0.1%   4 - 11 2 - 5 7 - 18 5 - 12 -11.9      -5.6 312 -6.2 322 72.1 113 -9.4 295 -13.1 10
329 TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.1%   0 - 9 0 - 3 4 - 17 4 - 11 -12.7      -9.1 334 -3.6 272 68.5 215 -18.7 338 -22.8 13
331 Houston Baptist 0.0%   1 - 12 1 - 5 4 - 19 4 - 12 -13.1      -3.9 272 -9.2 342 78.9 26 -18.7 337 -17.8 11
338 McNeese St. 0.0%   1 - 8 1 - 6 4 - 15 4 - 13 -14.2      -3.1 256 -11.0 347 70.2 165 -19.6 340 -19.5 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Abilene Christian 2.1 41.6 25.9 19.3 11.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 2.2 42.1 20.9 18.2 16.0 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 2.5 28.3 23.5 21.6 23.7 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 2.3 26.8 31.9 24.5 14.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 11.4 16.0 18.4 16.0 13.9 10.8 7.1 3.6 1.0
New Orleans 6.1 0.1 0.6 2.2 7.8 35.3 20.9 12.9 8.3 5.5 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.2
Lamar 7.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.6 18.1 20.6 17.5 13.7 10.2 6.8 4.6 2.6 1.2
Northwestern St. 7.7 0.0 0.2 1.6 14.9 16.9 17.4 15.1 13.5 9.7 6.4 3.2 1.0
Incarnate Word 6.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.7 25.9 21.2 15.8 11.9 8.4 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.5
SE Louisiana 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.8 8.2 11.6 13.6 15.9 16.7 14.6 9.8 4.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 10.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 4.5 6.7 9.4 13.1 15.6 20.2 26.3
Houston Baptist 10.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 5.6 7.9 11.4 15.3 18.0 18.6 18.6
McNeese St. 10.5 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.5 5.5 7.7 9.9 13.4 17.0 22.5 18.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Abilene Christian 13 - 3 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 8.5 17.7 27.9 27.8 13.9
Stephen F. Austin 13 - 3 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.6 10.7 18.1 24.0 23.0 13.6 4.2
Sam Houston St. 13 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.6 14.3 22.9 25.9 18.5 7.7 1.5
Nicholls St. 13 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.3 11.3 22.6 28.8 23.1 8.2
Central Arkansas 6 - 10 0.3 2.7 8.7 17.0 23.1 22.7 14.9 7.4 2.6 0.5 0.0
New Orleans 8 - 8 0.3 1.9 5.5 11.4 18.0 21.1 19.6 13.3 6.4 2.1 0.4
Lamar 7 - 9 0.2 1.8 5.8 12.1 18.7 21.4 18.5 12.4 6.1 2.3 0.5 0.1
Northwestern St. 7 - 9 0.3 2.2 7.4 15.8 22.1 22.5 16.9 9.0 3.1 0.7 0.1
Incarnate Word 7 - 9 0.7 3.7 9.5 16.2 20.9 20.7 15.3 8.5 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 5 - 11 1.9 8.9 18.3 23.8 22.0 14.5 7.1 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4 - 12 1.4 6.4 13.8 20.0 21.6 17.7 11.1 5.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 4 - 12 2.7 9.9 19.6 23.9 21.2 13.4 6.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
McNeese St. 4 - 12 3.6 11.7 20.4 23.0 19.2 12.6 6.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Abilene Christian 41.6% 21.3 14.3 5.2 0.8 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 42.1% 24.3 12.2 4.8 0.8 0.0
Sam Houston St. 28.3% 13.8 9.9 3.9 0.8 0.0
Nicholls St. 26.8% 9.5 11.5 4.9 0.8 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lamar 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St.
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana
TX A&M Corpus Christi
Houston Baptist
McNeese St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Abilene Christian 40.8% 40.8% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 3.1 9.7 16.1 9.7 1.4 59.2 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 28.9% 28.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 7.4 10.7 7.6 71.1 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.8 5.7 1.3 85.2 0.0%
Nicholls St. 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 9.5 86.3 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
New Orleans 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Lamar 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Houston Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Abilene Christian 40.8% 0.2% 40.8% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 28.9% 2.8% 27.9% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 14.8% 0.2% 14.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 13.7% 5.9% 11.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.4% 1.0 4.6 95.4 0.0
2nd Round 8.5% 0.1 91.5 8.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0