Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   26 - 0 15 - 0 26 - 0 15 - 0 +27.0      +17.2 1 +9.8 4 82.3 4 +30.3 1 +24.7 1
24 BYU 100.0%   4   19 - 6 10 - 3 19 - 6 10 - 3 +14.3      +8.0 22 +6.3 29 69.3 174 +15.7 13 +15.6 2
79 St. Mary's 9.8%   14 - 9 4 - 6 14 - 9 4 - 6 +7.6      -1.7 223 +9.3 8 60.6 336 +8.9 65 +6.0 4
104 San Francisco 0.0%   11 - 14 4 - 9 11 - 14 4 - 9 +4.9      +2.4 112 +2.4 102 69.5 167 +1.4 147 -2.4 8
107 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   13 - 9 7 - 5 13 - 9 7 - 5 +4.6      +3.2 100 +1.4 130 65.1 274 +6.2 92 +6.0 5
108 Pepperdine 0.0%   10 - 12 7 - 6 10 - 12 7 - 6 +4.5      +3.7 87 +0.8 152 74.9 60 +3.5 121 +7.4 3
123 Pacific 0.0%   8 - 9 6 - 7 8 - 9 6 - 7 +3.0      +1.1 140 +1.9 115 65.7 260 +3.3 122 +4.6 6
168 Santa Clara 0.0%   11 - 8 4 - 5 11 - 8 4 - 5 -0.1      -0.9 198 +0.8 150 74.8 62 +4.2 113 +3.3 7
211 San Diego 0.0%   3 - 11 2 - 7 3 - 11 2 - 7 -3.4      -4.3 272 +0.9 149 73.1 87 -5.0 229 -4.7 9
322 Portland 0.0%   3 - 15 0 - 11 3 - 15 0 - 11 -11.9      -4.0 269 -7.9 339 75.2 55 -8.1 285 -13.4 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
BYU 2.0 100.0
St. Mary's 6.0 100.0
San Francisco 6.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 3.0 100.0
Pepperdine 3.0 100.0
Pacific 5.0 100.0
Santa Clara 6.0 100.0
San Diego 9.0 100.0
Portland 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 15 - 1 100.0
BYU 10 - 6 100.0
St. Mary's 4 - 12 100.0
San Francisco 4 - 12 100.0
Loyola Marymount 7 - 9 100.0
Pepperdine 7 - 9 100.0
Pacific 6 - 10 100.0
Santa Clara 4 - 12 100.0
San Diego 2 - 14 100.0
Portland 0 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
BYU
St. Mary's
San Francisco
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
Pacific
Santa Clara
San Diego
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   90.8 9.2 0.0
BYU 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.2 7.3 23.4 37.2 23.8 7.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
St. Mary's 9.8% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0 0.8 7.9 1.2 0.0 90.2 9.8%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 91.3% 82.3% 70.6% 58.1% 46.7%
BYU 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 77.8% 42.4% 15.0% 5.7% 1.9% 0.5%
St. Mary's 9.8% 9.8% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 0.0 90.1 9.8
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.0 95.9 4.1
2nd Round 99.9% 1.8 0.1 22.0 77.1 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 95.0% 1.3 5.0 56.1 38.8 0.1
Elite Eight 85.9% 1.0 14.1 74.4 11.5 0.0
Final Four 72.7% 0.8 27.3 69.2 3.6
Final Game 59.2% 0.6 40.8 58.4 0.8
Champion 47.2% 0.5 52.8 47.2