Preseason Rankings
Horizon
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
121 Wright St. 35.1%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 7 13 - 5 +3.1      +1.9 128 +1.3 130 76.8 31 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 Northern Kentucky 17.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 10 - 6 -0.5      -1.2 204 +0.7 149 64.3 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
199 Youngstown St. 11.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 11 9 - 7 -2.3      +0.8 142 -3.2 266 65.5 262 0.0 1 0.0 1
216 Illinois-Chicago 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 12 8 - 8 -3.9      -4.0 285 +0.1 164 71.3 107 0.0 1 0.0 1
240 Green Bay 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 8 - 10 -4.7      +1.1 139 -5.8 322 81.3 8 0.0 1 0.0 1
242 Cleveland St. 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 12 8 - 8 -5.0      -3.2 267 -1.8 224 67.3 227 0.0 1 0.0 1
243 Oakland 5.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 9 -5.0      -2.6 246 -2.4 244 64.8 281 0.0 1 0.0 1
245 Detroit Mercy 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 9 -5.1      +0.4 158 -5.5 318 71.0 115 0.0 1 0.0 1
272 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 7 - 9 -6.4      -3.9 283 -2.5 246 71.2 108 0.0 1 0.0 1
295 IUPUI 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 14 6 - 10 -7.7      -0.8 194 -6.9 330 73.9 59 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wright St. 2.0 60.4 16.6 8.5 5.2 3.5 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3
Northern Kentucky 3.8 16.6 21.6 16.2 12.4 9.2 8.1 5.9 4.9 3.2 1.9
Youngstown St. 4.7 8.6 14.3 14.3 13.6 12.6 10.3 9.4 7.4 5.7 3.7
Illinois-Chicago 5.4 6.4 10.6 11.4 12.3 12.2 11.2 10.8 9.7 8.6 6.6
Green Bay 5.1 8.1 13.0 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.5 10.0 9.1 7.5 6.5
Cleveland St. 5.5 5.5 10.3 11.7 11.9 12.6 11.0 10.5 9.9 9.1 7.6
Oakland 5.8 5.3 8.7 10.1 10.9 10.8 11.3 11.8 11.8 10.8 8.4
Detroit Mercy 6.0 3.7 7.8 9.2 10.6 11.3 11.3 11.9 12.0 11.3 11.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.3 2.7 6.4 8.3 9.6 10.6 11.6 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.2
IUPUI 7.1 1.5 3.4 5.2 7.0 8.5 10.2 12.7 14.1 17.1 20.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wright St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.5 9.2 11.0 12.9 13.7 13.0 10.7 7.0 3.1
Northern Kentucky 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.5 4.5 5.7 8.0 9.7 11.7 12.7 12.5 11.1 9.3 6.1 3.2 1.2
Youngstown St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.2 6.4 8.8 11.5 13.0 13.0 11.8 10.3 7.5 5.0 2.8 1.0 0.3
Illinois-Chicago 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.6 8.7 11.0 11.7 12.8 11.8 9.5 7.7 5.7 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.2
Green Bay 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.1 8.4 9.5 11.3 11.6 11.4 10.2 8.1 6.6 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.7 4.4 6.7 9.0 10.9 12.0 12.5 11.5 9.9 7.8 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1
Oakland 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.3 5.4 7.9 10.3 12.0 12.0 11.8 10.3 8.6 6.7 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.1
Detroit Mercy 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 3.6 6.4 8.7 11.1 12.1 12.0 11.7 10.1 7.7 6.1 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 7 - 11 0.7 2.3 4.7 7.1 10.3 11.2 12.8 12.2 11.3 9.3 7.5 4.8 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
IUPUI 6 - 12 1.4 4.3 7.2 11.0 12.6 13.4 12.8 11.5 8.9 7.0 4.2 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 60.4% 50.0 8.6 1.5 0.2 0.0
Northern Kentucky 16.6% 10.4 4.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
Youngstown St. 8.6% 4.9 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 6.4% 3.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Green Bay 8.1% 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 5.5% 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oakland 5.3% 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 3.7% 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.7% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
IUPUI 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 35.1% 34.5% 0.6% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 4.6 8.9 8.4 5.9 3.6 64.9 1.0%
Northern Kentucky 17.1% 17.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 3.0 4.2 4.2 3.8 82.9 0.2%
Youngstown St. 11.2% 11.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.4 88.8 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.8 92.3 0.0%
Green Bay 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 3.0 93.7 0.0%
Cleveland St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.5 94.2 0.0%
Oakland 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.8 94.3 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.7 94.1 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 96.3 0.0%
IUPUI 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 97.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 35.1% 2.0% 34.3% 5.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 17.1% 2.1% 16.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 11.2% 2.0% 10.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.7% 1.7% 7.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 6.3% 2.0% 5.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 5.8% 1.5% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 5.7% 2.0% 4.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 5.9% 1.8% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.7% 1.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 2.3% 1.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.0 1.0
1st Round 92.5% 0.9 7.5 91.9 0.6
2nd Round 9.9% 0.1 90.1 9.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0