IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Oakland
Horizon
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.0	#243
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.8	#281
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.6	#246

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#244

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.7%	13.9%	5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.3	15.2

.500 or above	18.7%	46.9%	17.2%
.500 or above in Conference	35.3%	57.2%	34.1%
Conference Champion	5.3%	14.1%	4.8%
Last Place in Conference	13.8%	3.4%	14.4%

First Four	2.0%	1.7%	2.1%
First Round	4.8%	13.3%	4.3%
Second Round	0.3%	0.8%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 13
Quad 4	7 - 5	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	58	@ Xavier	L	61-78	5%
Nov 26, 2020	137	Toledo	L	68-75	27%
Nov 27, 2020	117	Bradley	L	65-73	23%
Nov 29, 2020	19	@ Michigan	L	60-82	2%
Dec 01, 2020	28	@ Purdue	L	55-75	4%
Dec 05, 2020	42	@ Oklahoma St.	L	60-79	5%
Dec 13, 2020	10	@ Michigan St.	L	60-84	2%
Dec 19, 2020	216	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	67-71	35%
Dec 20, 2020	216	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	67-71	36%
Dec 26, 2020	167	Northern Kentucky	L	66-68	45%
Dec 27, 2020	167	Northern Kentucky	L	66-68	44%
Jan 01, 2021	121	Wright St.	L	71-76	33%
Jan 02, 2021	121	Wright St.	L	71-76	34%
Jan 08, 2021	240	@ Green Bay	L	77-80	39%
Jan 09, 2021	240	@ Green Bay	L	77-80	39%
Jan 15, 2021	199	Youngstown St.	W	71-70	51%
Jan 16, 2021	199	Youngstown St.	W	71-70	51%
Jan 22, 2021	245	Detroit Mercy	W	75-72	60%
Jan 23, 2021	245	Detroit Mercy	W	75-72	60%
Jan 29, 2021	227	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	67-71	37%
Jan 30, 2021	227	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	67-71	37%
Feb 05, 2021	242	Cleveland St.	W	70-67	59%
Feb 06, 2021	242	Cleveland St.	W	70-67	60%
Feb 12, 2021	212	@ Robert Morris	L	64-69	35%
Feb 13, 2021	212	@ Robert Morris	L	64-69	35%
Feb 19, 2021	272	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	69-71	44%
Feb 20, 2021	272	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	69-71	44%
Projected Record						9 - 18	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	1.6	1.1	0.6	0.1				5.3	1st
2nd										0.2	1.3	3.1	2.6	1.1	0.4	0.1					8.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.3	2.2	4.0	2.7	0.7	0.1							10.1	3rd
4th								0.2	2.6	4.9	2.8	0.4	0.0								10.9	4th
5th						0.0	0.2	2.5	5.2	2.6	0.4	0.0									10.8	5th
6th					0.0	0.2	2.1	5.5	3.1	0.4	0.0										11.3	6th
7th				0.0	0.3	2.2	5.4	3.4	0.5	0.0											11.8	7th
8th			0.0	0.4	2.3	5.0	3.7	0.4	0.0												11.8	8th
9th	0.0	0.1	0.9	2.6	4.0	2.6	0.6	0.0													10.8	9th
10th	0.4	1.4	2.4	2.5	1.4	0.3	0.0														8.4	10th

Total	0.4	1.5	3.3	5.4	7.9	10.3	12.0	12.0	11.8	10.3	8.6	6.7	4.7	2.7	1.5	0.6	0.1					Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	91.5%	0.6		0.5	0.0
14-4	73.7%	1.1		0.9	0.2	0.0
13-5	57.2%	1.6		0.9	0.5	0.1
12-6	28.2%	1.3		0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0
11-7	7.3%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1
10-8	1.2%	0.1		0.0		0.1	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.1%	0.0						0.0

Total	5.3%	5.3		3.0	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.1%		40.6%	40.6%		12.8											0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
15-3	0.6%		38.7%	37.4%	1.3%	13.5									0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.4		2.1%
14-4	1.5%		32.2%	31.1%	1.0%	13.7											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.0		1.5%
13-5	2.7%		20.8%	20.8%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	2.2
12-6	4.7%		16.1%	16.1%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.2	3.9
11-7	6.7%		15.3%	15.3%		15.2														0.1	0.1	0.4	0.5	5.6
10-8	8.6%		9.3%	9.3%		15.6															0.1	0.2	0.6	7.8
9-9	10.3%		6.5%	6.5%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	9.6
8-10	11.8%		4.4%	4.4%		15.9																0.1	0.4	11.2
7-11	12.0%		2.5%	2.5%		16.0																	0.3	11.7
6-12	12.0%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.2	11.9
5-13	10.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	10.3
4-14	7.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
3-15	5.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
2-16	3.3%																							3.3
1-17	1.5%																							1.5
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		5.7%	5.6%	0.0%	15.1									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.4	2.8	94.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%