IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.8	#297
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.9	#255
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.9	#305

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#256

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.2%	10.5%	4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.2	15.6

.500 or above	27.9%	60.6%	25.7%
.500 or above in Conference	41.8%	63.9%	40.3%
Conference Champion	5.4%	11.5%	5.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.0%	0.6%

First Four	2.5%	2.7%	2.5%
First Round	4.0%	8.9%	3.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 6.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 4	8 - 7	9 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 04, 2020	94	@ Georgia	L	64-80	6%
Dec 08, 2020	258	Campbell	W	67-66	54%
Dec 10, 2020	312	New Orleans	W	75-71	66%
Dec 19, 2020	43	@ Miami (FL)	L	60-81	3%
Dec 21, 2020	89	@ Kansas St.	L	57-74	7%
Jan 01, 2021	342	@ Kennesaw St.	W	70-64	70%
Jan 02, 2021	342	@ Kennesaw St.	W	70-64	70%
Jan 14, 2021	218	North Florida	L	74-75	47%
Jan 16, 2021	218	North Florida	L	74-75	48%
Jan 22, 2021	277	@ North Alabama	L	69-73	36%
Jan 23, 2021	277	@ North Alabama	L	69-73	37%
Jan 28, 2021	147	Liberty	L	57-63	32%
Jan 30, 2021	147	Liberty	L	57-63	32%
Feb 04, 2021	292	@ Bellarmine	L	59-62	39%
Feb 06, 2021	292	@ Bellarmine	L	59-62	40%
Feb 11, 2021	170	Lipscomb	L	69-73	37%
Feb 13, 2021	170	Lipscomb	L	69-73	36%
Feb 18, 2021	241	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	63-69	32%
Feb 20, 2021	241	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	63-69	32%
Feb 25, 2021	250	Stetson	W	65-64	53%
Feb 27, 2021	250	Stetson	W	65-64	53%
Projected Record						8 - 13	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	0.6	1.6	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.1		5.4	1st
2nd										0.2	1.8	2.8	2.1	0.6	0.0				7.6	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.6	2.7	4.1	1.8	0.3	0.0					9.5	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	3.6	4.7	1.7	0.2							10.9	4th
5th						0.1	1.1	4.7	5.4	1.7	0.1								13.1	5th
6th					0.1	1.7	5.2	5.8	1.6	0.1									14.5	6th
7th			0.0	0.6	2.6	6.0	5.1	1.2	0.1										15.5	7th
8th		0.1	1.4	4.2	5.4	3.4	0.8	0.0											15.3	8th
9th	0.6	2.0	2.6	2.1	0.7	0.2													8.2	9th
10th																				10th

Total	0.6	2.2	4.1	6.8	8.8	11.2	12.2	12.3	11.3	9.5	7.8	5.4	4.0	2.2	1.0	0.5	0.1			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
14-2	95.4%	0.9		0.8	0.1	0.0
13-3	72.6%	1.6		0.9	0.6	0.1
12-4	39.7%	1.6		0.6	0.8	0.2	0.0
11-5	10.4%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
10-6	1.1%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	5.4%	5.4		3.1	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		33.3%	33.3%		13.2														0.0	0.0			0.1
15-1	0.5%		39.5%	39.5%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
14-2	1.0%		27.2%	27.2%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.7
13-3	2.2%		27.5%	27.5%		15.0														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.6
12-4	4.0%		21.7%	21.7%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	3.1
11-5	5.4%		14.7%	14.7%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	4.6
10-6	7.8%		9.5%	9.5%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	7.1
9-7	9.5%		5.1%	5.1%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.5	9.0
8-8	11.3%		4.2%	4.2%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.5	10.8
7-9	12.3%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																	0.4	12.0
6-10	12.2%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.2	12.0
5-11	11.2%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	11.1
4-12	8.8%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.8
3-13	6.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
2-14	4.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.1
1-15	2.2%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
0-16	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		5.2%	5.2%	0.0%	15.5												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	3.6	94.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%