Preseason Rankings
Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#170
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.3#133
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#162
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#197
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 27.2% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 79.0% 85.9% 66.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 89.0% 80.7%
Conference Champion 31.7% 36.0% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.6% 4.2% 5.5%
First Round21.7% 25.2% 15.1%
Second Round1.7% 2.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Neutral) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 413 - 416 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 236   Lamar W 75-71 65%    
  Nov 29, 2020 210   @ Tulane L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 02, 2020 55   @ Cincinnati L 66-79 11%    
  Dec 05, 2020 46   @ Arkansas L 70-84 11%    
  Dec 07, 2020 325   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 78-70 76%    
  Dec 09, 2020 325   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-67 89%    
  Dec 12, 2020 114   Belmont L 76-78 44%    
  Dec 31, 2020 147   Liberty W 64-63 55%    
  Jan 02, 2021 147   Liberty W 64-63 55%    
  Jan 07, 2021 292   @ Bellarmine W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 09, 2021 292   @ Bellarmine W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 21, 2021 241   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 23, 2021 241   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 29, 2021 250   @ Stetson W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 30, 2021 250   @ Stetson W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 04, 2021 342   Kennesaw St. W 81-62 94%    
  Feb 06, 2021 342   Kennesaw St. W 81-62 94%    
  Feb 11, 2021 297   @ Jacksonville W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 13, 2021 297   @ Jacksonville W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 18, 2021 218   North Florida W 82-76 69%    
  Feb 20, 2021 218   North Florida W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 26, 2021 277   @ North Alabama W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 27, 2021 277   @ North Alabama W 76-73 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 5.1 9.0 8.4 5.2 2.2 31.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.8 6.9 7.2 3.5 0.5 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.2 6.4 4.5 1.0 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.2 2.7 0.4 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.7 1.7 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.8 6.0 7.7 10.5 12.3 13.4 13.4 12.4 9.0 5.2 2.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
15-1 100.0% 5.2    5.0 0.1
14-2 94.0% 8.4    7.1 1.4 0.0
13-3 72.0% 9.0    5.7 3.0 0.3
12-4 38.6% 5.1    1.9 2.4 0.8 0.0
11-5 12.2% 1.6    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 31.7% 31.7 22.2 7.7 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.2% 59.4% 56.7% 2.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 6.3%
15-1 5.2% 50.6% 50.2% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 0.7%
14-2 9.0% 41.2% 41.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.1 5.3 0.2%
13-3 12.4% 35.4% 35.4% 14.5 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.7 0.6 8.0
12-4 13.4% 29.5% 29.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.4 9.4
11-5 13.4% 24.7% 24.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 10.1
10-6 12.3% 17.1% 17.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 10.2
9-7 10.5% 11.0% 11.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 9.4
8-8 7.7% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 6.9
7-9 6.0% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.3 5.7
6-10 3.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 3.7
5-11 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-12 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.8% 23.8% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.0 4.9 6.7 7.9 76.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.2 1.0 20.4 9.2 25.5 1.0 9.2 8.2 8.2 9.2 8.2