IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Nevada
Mountain West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.5	#104
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.5	#50
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.8	#78

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.7	#151

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	1.2%	1.5%	0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.0%	17.0%	6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	6.9%	8.7%	2.5%
Average Seed	10.7	10.5	11.5

.500 or above	70.2%	78.4%	49.8%
.500 or above in Conference	46.2%	51.3%	33.4%
Conference Champion	1.0%	1.2%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	4.5%	3.4%	7.3%

First Four	2.5%	3.1%	1.1%
First Round	12.6%	15.3%	6.0%
Second Round	4.5%	5.6%	1.9%
Sweet Sixteen	1.4%	1.7%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 2	2 - 3	2 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 3	7 - 9
Quad 4	5 - 1	13 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 30, 2020	138	Pacific	W	75-69	71%
Dec 02, 2020	91	San Francisco	W	78-76	55%
Dec 06, 2020	91	@ San Francisco	L	75-79	35%
Dec 11, 2020	177	Grand Canyon	W	81-73	78%
Dec 17, 2020	225	Air Force	W	85-73	85%
Dec 19, 2020	225	Air Force	W	85-73	84%
Jan 07, 2021	36	@ San Diego St.	L	67-77	20%
Jan 09, 2021	36	@ San Diego St.	L	67-77	20%
Jan 14, 2021	150	Fresno St.	W	76-69	72%
Jan 16, 2021	150	Fresno St.	W	76-69	72%
Jan 22, 2021	169	@ Wyoming	W	74-72	57%
Jan 24, 2021	169	@ Wyoming	W	74-72	58%
Feb 05, 2021	86	Boise St.	W	79-78	55%
Feb 07, 2021	86	Boise St.	W	79-78	54%
Feb 13, 2021	282	@ San Jose St.	W	88-80	75%
Feb 15, 2021	282	@ San Jose St.	W	88-80	75%
Feb 18, 2021	112	Colorado St.	W	82-79	62%
Feb 20, 2021	112	Colorado St.	W	82-79	61%
Feb 25, 2021	75	@ Utah St.	L	72-78	30%
Feb 27, 2021	75	@ Utah St.	L	72-78	31%
Projected Record						12 - 8	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3						1.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	0.7	0.1						3.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	1.9	2.9	1.4	0.2							6.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.9	3.2	4.4	1.9	0.3								10.6	4th
5th									0.2	1.3	4.7	5.9	2.6	0.2	0.0								14.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.0	5.2	5.9	2.4	0.3	0.0									16.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.6	5.8	5.5	1.9	0.3	0.0										16.6	7th
8th					0.1	0.7	2.7	5.0	3.8	1.2	0.1												13.6	8th
9th				0.1	0.6	2.0	3.3	2.2	0.6	0.0													8.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0														5.5	10th
11th	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.1																2.4	11th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.6	2.8	4.7	7.6	10.3	12.5	13.3	13.6	12.4	9.3	6.0	3.5	1.2	0.3							Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	79.7%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	31.1%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
14-6	8.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.0%	1.0		0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	0.3%		93.3%	51.1%	42.2%	4.5		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0						0.0		86.4%
15-5	1.2%		89.9%	38.7%	51.2%	6.7			0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		83.5%
14-6	3.5%		77.4%	32.1%	45.3%	9.3				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.0				0.8		66.8%
13-7	6.0%		52.7%	22.4%	30.4%	10.7						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.9	0.2	0.0			2.8		39.1%
12-8	9.3%		30.3%	14.9%	15.4%	11.4							0.0		0.1	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0		6.5		18.1%
11-9	12.4%		15.8%	11.0%	4.8%	12.0										0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0		10.4		5.4%
10-10	13.6%		7.5%	6.4%	1.0%	12.5											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0		12.6		1.1%
9-11	13.3%		3.9%	3.7%	0.2%	13.1													0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	12.8		0.2%
8-12	12.5%		1.9%	1.9%	0.0%	13.6													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	12.2		0.0%
7-13	10.3%		1.8%	1.8%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.1
6-14	7.6%		0.9%	0.9%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	7.5
5-15	4.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
4-16	2.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
3-17	1.6%																							1.6
2-18	0.8%																							0.8
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		14.0%	7.7%	6.3%	10.7		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.5	1.1	1.7	2.7	3.9	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.1	86.0		6.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.5	20.7	43.1	5.2	29.3	1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	3.2	3.0	48.5	24.2			24.2