Preseason Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#281
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.6#127
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#263
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#282
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 11.9% 22.4% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 18.5% 26.6% 14.9%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 30.4% 21.0% 34.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Neutral) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 83 - 13
Quad 45 - 58 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 182   Western Carolina L 77-83 31%    
  Nov 28, 2020 253   UNC Wilmington L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 02, 2020 103   @ Wake Forest L 70-84 10%    
  Dec 06, 2020 131   @ UAB L 64-76 15%    
  Dec 10, 2020 277   @ North Alabama L 73-76 38%    
  Dec 16, 2020 301   Samford W 83-79 65%    
  Dec 19, 2020 60   @ Auburn L 66-85 5%    
  Jan 01, 2021 194   @ Appalachian St. L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 02, 2021 194   @ Appalachian St. L 68-76 26%    
  Jan 08, 2021 106   Georgia St. L 75-83 24%    
  Jan 09, 2021 106   Georgia St. L 75-83 25%    
  Jan 15, 2021 203   @ Georgia Southern L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 16, 2021 203   @ Georgia Southern L 73-80 28%    
  Jan 22, 2021 175   @ Coastal Carolina L 75-84 23%    
  Jan 23, 2021 175   @ Coastal Carolina L 75-84 23%    
  Jan 29, 2021 194   Appalachian St. L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 30, 2021 194   Appalachian St. L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 05, 2021 203   Georgia Southern L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 06, 2021 203   Georgia Southern L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 11, 2021 187   @ South Alabama L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 13, 2021 187   South Alabama L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 19, 2021 106   @ Georgia St. L 72-86 12%    
  Feb 20, 2021 106   @ Georgia St. L 72-86 13%    
  Feb 26, 2021 175   Coastal Carolina L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 27, 2021 175   Coastal Carolina L 78-81 41%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 14.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.3 5.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 18.6 11th
12th 2.3 4.7 6.5 4.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 20.8 12th
Total 2.4 5.5 9.4 11.1 12.0 11.9 11.3 10.0 8.0 6.6 4.5 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 84.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 71.6% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 78.9% 76.3% 2.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1%
16-2 0.1% 68.9% 68.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 52.2% 52.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
14-4 0.7% 25.6% 25.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.0
11-7 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 3.1
10-8 4.5% 4.5
9-9 6.6% 6.6
8-10 8.0% 8.0
7-11 10.0% 10.0
6-12 11.3% 11.3
5-13 11.9% 11.9
4-14 12.0% 12.0
3-15 11.1% 11.1
2-16 9.4% 9.4
1-17 5.5% 5.5
0-18 2.4% 2.4
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%