Preseason Rankings
UAB
Conference USA
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#131
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#302
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 8.3% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 1.3% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 13.3
.500 or above 77.1% 78.4% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.9% 68.7% 49.3%
Conference Champion 9.4% 9.6% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.4% 8.3%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round7.8% 8.0% 4.6%
Second Round1.9% 2.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 95.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 46 - 9
Quad 411 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 334   Alcorn St. W 80-62 96%    
  Nov 28, 2020 319   SE Louisiana W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 02, 2020 342   Kennesaw St. W 77-56 98%    
  Dec 06, 2020 281   Troy W 76-64 85%    
  Dec 12, 2020 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-67 42%    
  Dec 16, 2020 262   Southern W 73-62 83%    
  Dec 19, 2020 158   Chattanooga W 73-68 66%    
  Dec 23, 2020 63   Georgia Tech L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 01, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 02, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 08, 2021 229   Southern Miss W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 09, 2021 229   Southern Miss W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 15, 2021 164   @ Charlotte L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 16, 2021 164   @ Charlotte L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 22, 2021 265   Rice W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 23, 2021 265   Rice W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 28, 2021 193   @ Middle Tennessee W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 30, 2021 193   Middle Tennessee W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 05, 2021 161   UTEP W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 06, 2021 161   UTEP W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 12, 2021 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 13, 2021 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 19, 2021 118   Old Dominion W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 20, 2021 118   Old Dominion W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 25, 2021 153   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-78 45%    
  Feb 27, 2021 153   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-78 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.2 9.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.8 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.1 3.1 0.7 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.4 3.7 0.6 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.6 3.3 4.5 1.0 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.1 0.2 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.9 6.0 7.9 9.9 11.0 12.7 11.9 9.9 8.7 6.1 4.3 2.1 1.0 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-1 95.7% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 86.8% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 69.1% 2.9    1.8 1.0 0.2
14-4 36.4% 2.2    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 11.7% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 95.7% 53.9% 41.7% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.6%
17-1 1.0% 73.3% 39.5% 33.9% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 56.0%
16-2 2.1% 47.4% 31.6% 15.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 23.2%
15-3 4.3% 30.1% 23.4% 6.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 3.0 8.7%
14-4 6.1% 22.2% 20.1% 2.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.8 2.6%
13-5 8.7% 13.4% 13.1% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.5 0.3%
12-6 9.9% 10.1% 10.1% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.9
11-7 11.9% 5.9% 5.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 11.2
10-8 12.7% 3.1% 3.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.3
9-9 11.0% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8
8-10 9.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8
7-11 7.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
6-12 6.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-14 2.3% 2.3
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.2% 7.0% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 91.8 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 2.1 4.2 37.5 18.8 18.8 18.8