IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Winthrop
Big South
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.4	#124
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.7	#34
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.8	#98

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.4	#179

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	45.4%	56.9%	42.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.4%	1.3%	0.2%
Average Seed	13.8	12.9	14.1

.500 or above	93.5%	98.8%	92.0%
.500 or above in Conference	97.9%	99.4%	97.5%
Conference Champion	67.2%	77.7%	64.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	3.0%	1.5%	3.5%
First Round	44.0%	56.1%	40.6%
Second Round	5.6%	9.7%	4.4%
Sweet Sixteen	1.4%	2.8%	1.0%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Neutral) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 3	4 - 5
Quad 4	17 - 3	21 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	44	Seton Hall	L	76-84	22%
Nov 27, 2020	84	UNC Greensboro	L	74-78	35%
Nov 29, 2020	168	Southern Illinois	W	72-69	61%
Dec 02, 2020	127	Arkansas Little Rock	W	81-80	50%
Dec 04, 2020	90	Duquesne	L	76-80	38%
Dec 12, 2020	307	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	84-76	76%
Dec 13, 2020	307	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	84-76	76%
Dec 19, 2020	83	Furman	L	77-78	45%
Dec 30, 2020	258	Campbell	W	80-69	84%
Dec 31, 2020	258	Campbell	W	80-69	84%
Jan 09, 2021	314	@ High Point	W	80-71	78%
Jan 10, 2021	314	@ High Point	W	80-71	78%
Jan 14, 2021	320	Longwood	W	83-67	91%
Jan 15, 2021	320	Longwood	W	83-67	91%
Jan 19, 2021	341	@ Presbyterian	W	84-69	90%
Jan 20, 2021	341	@ Presbyterian	W	84-69	90%
Jan 24, 2021	321	Hampton	W	92-76	91%
Jan 25, 2021	321	Hampton	W	92-76	91%
Jan 29, 2021	280	@ Charleston Southern	W	79-73	69%
Jan 30, 2021	280	@ Charleston Southern	W	79-73	69%
Feb 04, 2021	247	Gardner-Webb	W	81-70	81%
Feb 05, 2021	247	Gardner-Webb	W	81-70	82%
Feb 11, 2021	270	@ Radford	W	76-70	68%
Feb 12, 2021	270	@ Radford	W	76-70	68%
Feb 18, 2021	226	UNC Asheville	W	88-78	79%
Feb 19, 2021	226	UNC Asheville	W	88-78	79%
Projected Record						19 - 7	16 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big South Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	2.0	5.0	10.5	14.0	15.1	13.1	7.3		67.2	1st
2nd												0.1	0.5	2.2	4.0	5.0	3.2	1.6	0.3				16.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	1.8	2.5	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.0					7.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.1	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.0							3.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0								2.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0										1.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1												0.7	7th
8th							0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0													0.4	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.2	9th
10th					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.0	10th
11th					0.0	0.0																	0.0	11th

Total					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.7	2.7	4.0	5.7	8.0	10.6	13.9	15.6	15.4	13.1	7.3			Total

Big South Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	7.3		7.3
19-1	100.0%	13.1		12.9	0.1
18-2	98.2%	15.1		14.1	1.0
17-3	89.6%	14.0		11.9	2.1	0.1
16-4	75.5%	10.5		7.7	2.6	0.2	0.0
15-5	47.0%	5.0		2.6	2.0	0.3	0.0
14-6	24.6%	2.0		0.7	0.8	0.4	0.1
13-7	5.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	67.2%	67.2		57.2	8.7	1.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	7.3%		78.1%	76.5%	1.6%	11.2			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	1.3	1.5	0.6	0.1		1.6		6.8%
19-1	13.1%		66.7%	66.0%	0.6%	13.0									0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	1.8	3.6	2.2	0.5	0.0	4.4		1.8%
18-2	15.4%		58.7%	58.7%	0.0%	13.7											0.0	0.0	0.9	3.0	3.4	1.5	0.2	6.3		0.0%
17-3	15.6%		48.7%	48.7%		14.2													0.2	1.5	3.1	2.3	0.4	8.0
16-4	13.9%		42.9%	42.9%		14.7													0.0	0.6	1.7	2.7	1.0	7.9
15-5	10.6%		35.1%	35.1%		15.1														0.2	0.6	1.7	1.2	6.9
14-6	8.0%		27.3%	27.3%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	5.8
13-7	5.7%		23.5%	23.5%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	4.4
12-8	4.0%		16.5%	16.5%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	3.4
11-9	2.7%		12.6%	12.6%		16.0																0.0	0.3	2.4
10-10	1.7%		7.8%	7.8%		16.0																	0.1	1.5
9-11	1.0%		3.7%	3.7%		16.0																	0.0	1.0
8-12	0.6%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
7-13	0.3%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
6-14	0.1%																							0.1
5-15	0.1%																							0.1
4-16	0.0%																							0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		45.4%	45.2%	0.2%	13.8			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2	4.2	10.3	11.9	9.8	6.2	54.6		0.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	5.6		1.4	5.8	27.1	19.6	26.8	5.2	4.1	0.7	8.6	0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	20.0%	9.5								5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0