IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.0	#90
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.9	#208
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.7	#79

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.2	#105

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.4%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.5%	2.2%	0.3%
Top 6 Seed	3.2%	4.5%	1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	21.2%	26.7%	11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	14.8%	19.3%	7.4%
Average Seed	9.5	9.3	10.3

.500 or above	66.2%	76.2%	49.2%
.500 or above in Conference	66.0%	72.3%	55.1%
Conference Champion	7.9%	9.8%	4.7%
Last Place in Conference	2.3%	1.3%	4.0%

First Four	3.7%	4.5%	2.3%
First Round	19.1%	24.2%	10.5%
Second Round	8.4%	11.0%	3.9%
Sweet Sixteen	2.8%	3.8%	1.2%
Elite Eight	0.9%	1.2%	0.4%
Final Four	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Neutral) - 63.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 2	3 - 3	3 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 3	9 - 10
Quad 4	3 - 0	13 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 30, 2020	127	Arkansas Little Rock	W	77-73	63%
Dec 02, 2020	84	UNC Greensboro	L	71-72	48%
Dec 04, 2020	124	Winthrop	W	80-76	62%
Dec 19, 2020	53	@ Richmond	L	71-78	28%
Dec 30, 2020	52	@ Saint Louis	L	67-74	28%
Jan 02, 2021	198	@ George Washington	W	73-68	68%
Jan 05, 2021	81	Davidson	W	71-69	57%
Jan 09, 2021	201	Fordham	W	70-58	84%
Jan 13, 2021	47	@ Dayton	L	69-76	27%
Jan 16, 2021	85	@ St. Bonaventure	L	69-72	39%
Jan 20, 2021	93	Rhode Island	W	76-73	61%
Jan 27, 2021	201	@ Fordham	W	67-61	68%
Jan 30, 2021	174	Saint Joseph's	W	83-73	80%
Feb 02, 2021	47	Dayton	L	72-73	46%
Feb 07, 2021	99	Virginia Commonwealth	W	73-69	62%
Feb 13, 2021	123	@ George Mason	W	71-70	51%
Feb 17, 2021	81	@ Davidson	L	68-72	37%
Feb 20, 2021	128	Massachusetts	W	77-70	71%
Feb 24, 2021	198	George Washington	W	76-65	82%
Feb 27, 2021	157	@ La Salle	W	74-71	60%
Mar 03, 2021	85	St. Bonaventure	W	72-69	58%
Projected Record						12 - 9	10 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.2	2.5	2.5	1.1	0.3			7.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	2.5	3.9	2.7	0.6	0.0				10.2	2nd
3rd											0.4	2.7	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.0					10.4	3rd
4th										0.3	2.6	5.0	2.7	0.5	0.0						11.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.9	5.1	3.3	0.4	0.0							10.9	5th
6th								0.1	1.4	4.8	3.6	0.6	0.0								10.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	3.5	4.2	0.9	0.0									9.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.3	2.6	3.9	1.2	0.1										8.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	1.6	3.3	1.4	0.1	0.0										6.5	9th
10th					0.0	0.7	2.4	1.8	0.2	0.0											5.0	10th
11th				0.0	0.5	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.0												4.2	11th
12th			0.0	0.3	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.0													2.8	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.0														2.0	13th
14th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0															1.0	14th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.6	3.9	6.2	8.7	10.6	12.4	12.8	12.1	10.4	7.8	5.8	3.2	1.2	0.3				Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3
16-2	96.0%	1.1		1.0	0.1
15-3	78.7%	2.5		1.8	0.7	0.0
14-4	43.9%	2.5		1.1	1.1	0.3	0.1
13-5	14.8%	1.2		0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.7%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.9%	7.9		4.4	2.5	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.3%		100.0%	56.4%	43.6%	3.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0												100.0%
16-2	1.2%		99.1%	33.0%	66.1%	5.0		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		98.7%
15-3	3.2%		94.7%	34.1%	60.6%	6.9		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.2		92.0%
14-4	5.8%		82.7%	23.9%	58.9%	9.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.1				1.0		77.3%
13-5	7.8%		60.0%	16.9%	43.1%	10.4					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.3	1.1	1.1	0.1	0.0			3.1		51.9%
12-6	10.4%		35.1%	12.4%	22.8%	11.0							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.1	1.1	0.2	0.0			6.7		26.0%
11-7	12.1%		17.6%	7.6%	10.0%	11.5								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.0			10.0		10.8%
10-8	12.8%		7.0%	4.2%	2.8%	11.9									0.0		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		11.9		2.9%
9-9	12.4%		2.6%	1.8%	0.8%	12.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		12.1		0.8%
8-10	10.6%		1.5%	1.4%	0.1%	13.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.4		0.1%
7-11	8.7%		0.5%	0.5%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.6
6-12	6.2%		0.3%	0.3%		15.5																0.0	0.0	6.2
5-13	3.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
4-14	2.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.6
3-15	1.3%																							1.3
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		21.2%	7.5%	13.6%	9.5		0.1	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.9	0.8	1.1	1.5	2.6	3.4	4.1	4.1	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	78.8		14.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.1	26.5	38.2	35.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	3.1	4.3	13.0	47.8	34.8