American
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#232
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#187
Pace69.5#188
Improvement+0.1#166

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#253
First Shot-6.4#318
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#22
Layup/Dunks+0.1#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#268
Freethrows-4.2#344
Improvement-0.5#203

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#217
First Shot+2.0#111
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#343
Layups/Dunks-0.3#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#12
Freethrows-4.6#343
Improvement+0.6#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.2% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 50.8% 66.7% 30.7%
.500 or above in Conference 17.6% 27.3% 5.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 4.7% 20.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.2% 4.2% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 55.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 53 - 6
Quad 44 - 17 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 16, 2021 178   @ Navy L 86-87 OT 31%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -0.5 +6.0 -6.5
  Jan 17, 2021 178   @ Navy L 59-71 31%     0 - 2 0 - 2 -11.5 -13.6 +1.9
  Jan 23, 2021 259   Loyola Maryland W 71-70 62%     1 - 2 1 - 2 -6.9 -10.0 +3.1
  Jan 24, 2021 259   @ Loyola Maryland W 81-79 3OT 49%     2 - 2 2 - 2 -2.5 -9.1 +6.2
  Jan 30, 2021 211   Lafayette W 73-72 56%    
  Jan 31, 2021 211   @ Lafayette L 71-74 35%    
  Feb 06, 2021 178   Navy L 67-69 48%    
  Feb 07, 2021 178   @ Navy L 65-70 27%    
  Feb 13, 2021 264   @ Bucknell L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 14, 2021 264   Bucknell W 72-69 66%    
  Feb 20, 2021 259   Loyola Maryland W 72-69 65%    
  Feb 21, 2021 259   @ Loyola Maryland L 70-71 44%    
Projected Record 6 - 6 6 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 5.0 2.6 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.4 5.6 12.1 5.8 0.4 24.3 5th
6th 3.8 10.6 4.2 0.2 18.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 10.4 5.4 0.4 18.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 7.7 5.0 0.4 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.3 3.3 3.7 0.3 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 1.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 1.7 6.7 13.8 19.8 22.0 18.3 11.6 4.8 1.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 1.1% 19.1% 19.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
9-7 4.8% 10.4% 10.4% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.3
8-8 11.6% 7.5% 7.5% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.8
7-9 18.3% 4.5% 4.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 17.5
6-10 22.0% 2.2% 2.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 21.6
5-11 19.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 19.6
4-12 13.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.8
3-13 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-14 1.7% 1.7
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.2 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.0 3.3 6.1 13.1 44.1 29.6 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 1.0%