Navy
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#178
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#78
Pace63.8#313
Improvement+1.1#108

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#158
First Shot-0.4#184
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks-3.5#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#210
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement-1.0#239

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#215
First Shot-2.6#254
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#111
Layups/Dunks+2.0#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
Freethrows-1.4#269
Improvement+2.1#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 12.5% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 98.5%
Conference Champion 44.2% 51.2% 19.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.5% 12.4% 8.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 38 - 6
Quad 47 - 016 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 201   George Washington W 78-71 63%     1 - 0 +2.4 +2.1 +0.4
  Nov 27, 2020 43   @ Maryland L 52-82 10%     1 - 1 -17.2 -10.5 -9.5
  Nov 28, 2020 230   Mount St. Mary's W 73-67 63%     2 - 1 +1.4 +7.4 -5.4
  Dec 01, 2020 108   @ Georgetown W 78-71 24%     3 - 1 +13.1 +9.7 +3.5
  Jan 02, 2021 264   Bucknell W 78-69 75%     4 - 1 1 - 0 +0.9 -0.5 +1.0
  Jan 03, 2021 264   @ Bucknell W 63-60 64%     5 - 1 2 - 0 -1.8 -10.1 +8.3
  Jan 09, 2021 304   @ Lehigh W 69-61 73%     6 - 1 3 - 0 +0.5 +0.5 +1.1
  Jan 10, 2021 304   Lehigh W 73-58 82%     7 - 1 4 - 0 +4.2 +2.5 +3.5
  Jan 16, 2021 232   American W 87-86 OT 69%     8 - 1 5 - 0 -5.5 +5.2 -10.7
  Jan 17, 2021 232   American W 71-59 69%     9 - 1 6 - 0 +5.5 -3.2 +8.9
  Jan 23, 2021 183   Army W 69-62 58%     10 - 1 7 - 0 +3.8 -0.3 +4.5
  Jan 24, 2021 183   Army L 78-87 OT 58%     10 - 2 7 - 1 -12.2 -4.2 -6.9
  Jan 30, 2021 259   Loyola Maryland W 73-66 77%    
  Jan 31, 2021 259   @ Loyola Maryland W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 06, 2021 232   @ American W 69-67 52%    
  Feb 07, 2021 232   American W 70-65 73%    
  Feb 13, 2021 211   Lafayette W 73-69 69%    
  Feb 14, 2021 211   @ Lafayette W 71-70 47%    
  Feb 20, 2021 183   @ Army L 68-69 40%    
  Feb 21, 2021 183   @ Army L 68-69 40%    
Projected Record 15 - 5 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 2.8 12.7 17.8 8.6 2.2 44.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 5.4 16.2 10.8 32.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 7.5 3.5 0.2 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.2 2.2 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 2.2 7.4 15.2 22.6 23.7 17.8 8.6 2.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2
14-2 100.0% 8.6    8.6
13-3 100.0% 17.8    9.6 8.1 0.0
12-4 53.6% 12.7    3.4 7.9 1.4 0.0
11-5 12.2% 2.8    0.2 1.2 1.1 0.2
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 44.2% 44.2 24.0 17.4 2.6 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 2.2% 23.8% 23.2% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.8%
14-2 8.6% 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.8 0.0%
13-3 17.8% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 14.9 0.0%
12-4 23.7% 12.6% 12.6% 13.6 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 20.7
11-5 22.6% 9.3% 9.3% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 20.5
10-6 15.2% 6.2% 6.2% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 14.2
9-7 7.4% 4.3% 4.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.1
8-8 2.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-9 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 4.3 1.5 0.1 88.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.0 1.6 3.7 18.6 51.6 21.0 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 1.1% 12.8 0.3 0.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 0.9% 12.0 0.9
Lose Out 0.2%