Colgate
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#83
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#152
Pace74.1#70
Improvement-0.4#201

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#39
First Shot+5.5#46
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#112
Layup/Dunks+3.4#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#11
Freethrows-1.0#237
Improvement-0.4#201

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#166
First Shot+2.3#96
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#301
Layups/Dunks-1.6#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.7#1
Freethrows-5.0#342
Improvement+0.1#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.9% 58.7% 47.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.7% 85.3% 60.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round57.8% 58.6% 47.4%
Second Round13.3% 13.8% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 3.9% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 35 - 15 - 2
Quad 411 - 116 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 02, 2021 193   Army W 101-57 85%     1 - 0 1 - 0 +39.7 +21.1 +15.8
  Jan 03, 2021 193   Army L 73-75 85%     1 - 1 1 - 1 -6.3 -4.3 -1.9
  Jan 09, 2021 301   @ Boston University W 86-79 90%     2 - 1 2 - 1 -0.1 +5.0 -5.4
  Jan 10, 2021 301   @ Boston University W 89-45 90%     3 - 1 3 - 1 +36.9 +13.8 +24.4
  Jan 16, 2021 321   Holy Cross W 95-55 96%     4 - 1 4 - 1 +27.0 +17.4 +10.9
  Jan 17, 2021 321   Holy Cross W 96-87 96%     5 - 1 5 - 1 -4.0 +2.3 -7.5
  Jan 23, 2021 259   Bucknell W 84-69 93%    
  Jan 24, 2021 259   Bucknell W 84-69 93%    
  Jan 30, 2021 193   @ Army W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 31, 2021 193   Army W 81-70 87%    
  Feb 06, 2021 301   Boston University W 84-67 96%    
  Feb 07, 2021 301   Boston University W 84-67 95%    
  Feb 13, 2021 321   @ Holy Cross W 86-70 91%    
  Feb 14, 2021 321   @ Holy Cross W 86-70 91%    
  Feb 20, 2021 310   @ Lehigh W 85-70 89%    
  Feb 21, 2021 310   Lehigh W 86-68 96%    
Projected Record 14 - 2 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.2 11.2 30.6 39.4 83.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.3 3.8 0.6 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.3 16.7 34.4 40.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 98.4% 39.4    35.4 3.9
14-2 89.1% 30.6    22.7 7.7 0.3
13-3 67.2% 11.2    5.9 4.7 0.6 0.0
12-4 35.0% 2.2    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0
11-5 9.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 83.7% 83.7 64.7 17.4 1.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 40.0% 66.6% 66.4% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.5 5.8 11.1 5.1 0.4 13.4 0.8%
14-2 34.4% 57.7% 57.7% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.5 5.5 10.4 3.3 0.2 14.6 0.0%
13-3 16.7% 48.7% 48.7% 13.4 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.6
12-4 6.3% 39.8% 39.8% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.8
11-5 2.0% 30.8% 30.8% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.4
10-6 0.5% 27.4% 27.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
9-7 0.1% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 57.9% 57.8% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.5 6.2 17.4 20.1 8.2 1.6 0.1 42.1 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 26.6% 100.0% 11.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.7 3.8 9.3 21.6 41.7 19.2 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.9% 1.2% 12.1 0.3 0.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.2% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0