Arkansas
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#42
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#52
Pace79.8#17
Improvement-3.4#328

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#48
First Shot+2.5#112
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#24
Layup/Dunks+2.5#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#129
Freethrows+1.5#88
Improvement-1.1#249

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#43
First Shot+3.3#71
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#49
Layups/Dunks+2.2#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#150
Freethrows+1.0#126
Improvement-2.4#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.4% 5.5% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 15.1% 17.9% 7.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.4% 72.6% 53.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.7% 71.0% 52.1%
Average Seed 8.3 8.1 9.1
.500 or above 98.0% 99.1% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 65.1% 73.4% 43.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four6.1% 5.7% 7.3%
First Round64.3% 69.8% 50.1%
Second Round33.9% 37.7% 23.8%
Sweet Sixteen10.7% 12.3% 6.5%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.6% 2.9%
Final Four1.3% 1.4% 0.9%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Auburn (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 7
Quad 24 - 27 - 10
Quad 36 - 113 - 10
Quad 46 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 348   Mississippi Valley W 142-62 99.8%    1 - 0 +50.2 +26.3 +8.4
  Nov 28, 2020 93   North Texas W 69-54 76%     2 - 0 +19.0 -1.1 +20.0
  Dec 02, 2020 189   Texas Arlington W 72-60 92%     3 - 0 +8.0 +1.9 +6.9
  Dec 05, 2020 206   Lipscomb W 86-50 93%     4 - 0 +31.1 +5.1 +24.9
  Dec 09, 2020 253   Southern W 79-44 95%     5 - 0 +27.4 +0.5 +25.3
  Dec 12, 2020 284   Central Arkansas W 100-75 96%     6 - 0 +15.8 +8.5 +4.3
  Dec 20, 2020 159   Oral Roberts W 87-76 88%     7 - 0 +9.5 -3.4 +11.4
  Dec 22, 2020 120   Abilene Christian W 85-72 81%     8 - 0 +15.0 +15.2 -0.6
  Dec 30, 2020 67   @ Auburn W 97-85 55%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +22.1 +22.2 -1.0
  Jan 02, 2021 36   Missouri L 68-81 56%     9 - 1 1 - 1 -3.1 -7.0 +5.5
  Jan 06, 2021 5   @ Tennessee L 74-79 22%     9 - 2 1 - 2 +14.4 +9.9 +4.7
  Jan 09, 2021 96   Georgia W 99-69 77%     10 - 2 2 - 2 +33.6 +13.1 +16.2
  Jan 13, 2021 22   @ LSU L 76-92 33%     10 - 3 2 - 3 -0.3 -4.9 +7.0
  Jan 16, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 59-90 27%     10 - 4 2 - 4 -13.4 -11.9 +1.8
  Jan 20, 2021 67   Auburn W 81-76 72%    
  Jan 23, 2021 134   @ Vanderbilt W 83-75 73%    
  Jan 27, 2021 70   Mississippi W 77-72 73%    
  Jan 30, 2021 31   @ Oklahoma St. L 76-79 35%    
  Feb 02, 2021 68   Mississippi St. W 77-72 72%    
  Feb 06, 2021 118   Texas A&M W 73-64 84%    
  Feb 09, 2021 57   @ Kentucky L 72-73 44%    
  Feb 13, 2021 36   @ Missouri L 74-76 37%    
  Feb 16, 2021 33   Florida W 78-77 59%    
  Feb 20, 2021 118   @ Texas A&M W 72-66 67%    
  Feb 24, 2021 13   Alabama L 82-85 45%    
  Feb 27, 2021 22   LSU L 82-83 51%    
  Mar 02, 2021 62   @ South Carolina W 81-80 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 1st
2nd 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.3 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.6 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.1 7.3 1.7 0.0 17.0 4th
5th 0.3 5.2 7.5 2.2 0.1 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 8.0 3.0 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.7 6.2 4.3 0.4 11.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 5.7 0.9 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.7 4.7 1.9 7.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 2.6 0.3 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.4 3.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.2 0.5 1.9 5.0 10.9 16.4 19.3 19.0 14.7 8.2 3.3 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 41.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.6% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.3% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.2% 99.3% 10.9% 88.3% 5.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-7 14.7% 96.4% 8.2% 88.2% 7.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.6 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.5 96.1%
10-8 19.0% 92.6% 6.6% 86.0% 8.6 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.9 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 1.4 92.1%
9-9 19.3% 74.9% 3.6% 71.3% 9.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.1 3.1 3.6 2.9 1.4 0.1 4.8 74.0%
8-10 16.4% 44.1% 2.4% 41.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 1.9 0.5 9.2 42.7%
7-11 10.9% 17.8% 0.9% 16.9% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 9.0 17.0%
6-12 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.8%
5-13 1.9% 1.9
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 67.4% 5.1% 62.3% 8.3 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.8 4.5 6.2 8.8 10.7 10.8 9.0 7.1 4.8 1.0 0.1 32.6 65.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 74.7 25.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.4 22.3 22.3 44.1 11.2