Delaware
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#226
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#277
Pace66.8#251
Improvement+2.4#57

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#248
First Shot-1.9#222
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#234
Layup/Dunks-0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#228
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#260
Freethrows+1.9#61
Improvement+0.7#117

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#206
First Shot-2.1#237
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#116
Layups/Dunks+1.4#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#109
Freethrows-1.0#236
Improvement+1.7#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 8.1% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 18.3% 31.2% 10.8%
.500 or above in Conference 25.4% 41.6% 15.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.1% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 3.3% 12.6%
First Four4.3% 4.6% 4.1%
First Round4.4% 6.2% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 73 - 9
Quad 46 - 59 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 08, 2020 172   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 61-76 31%     0 - 1 -14.1 -5.7 -9.1
  Dec 11, 2020 205   George Washington W 68-65 53%     1 - 1 -2.0 -6.5 +4.6
  Dec 19, 2020 183   @ La Salle L 61-71 35%     1 - 2 -10.1 -11.2 +1.3
  Dec 21, 2020 260   Morgan St. L 59-65 64%     1 - 3 -13.8 -16.5 +2.5
  Jan 02, 2021 201   College of Charleston W 70-67 53%     2 - 3 1 - 0 -1.9 -2.0 +0.4
  Jan 03, 2021 201   College of Charleston L 59-66 53%     2 - 4 1 - 1 -11.9 -10.5 -2.2
  Jan 09, 2021 263   @ William & Mary L 62-67 50%     2 - 5 1 - 2 -9.2 -11.0 +1.6
  Jan 15, 2021 175   Hofstra W 74-56 45%     3 - 5 2 - 2 +15.2 +0.5 +15.1
  Jan 17, 2021 175   Hofstra L 67-68 45%     3 - 6 2 - 3 -3.8 -3.5 -0.3
  Jan 23, 2021 200   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-71 37%    
  Jan 24, 2021 200   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-71 35%    
  Jan 30, 2021 247   Elon W 68-65 65%    
  Jan 31, 2021 247   Elon W 68-65 64%    
  Feb 06, 2021 142   @ Northeastern L 62-69 22%    
  Feb 07, 2021 142   @ Northeastern L 62-69 22%    
  Feb 11, 2021 173   @ Drexel L 64-69 30%    
  Feb 13, 2021 173   Drexel L 66-67 50%    
  Feb 20, 2021 206   James Madison W 75-74 58%    
  Feb 21, 2021 206   James Madison W 75-74 58%    
  Feb 27, 2021 214   @ Towson L 67-69 38%    
  Feb 28, 2021 214   @ Towson L 67-69 37%    
Projected Record 8 - 13 7 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.6 1st
2nd 0.4 2.7 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.9 5.7 7.0 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 18.4 3rd
4th 0.2 5.8 7.3 1.9 0.2 15.4 4th
5th 2.2 7.4 2.7 12.3 5th
6th 0.7 7.0 4.2 0.2 12.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.9 6.4 1.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.8 1.9 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.0 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 3.8 10th
Total 0.5 2.8 6.2 11.7 17.7 19.4 16.4 11.6 7.8 3.8 1.7 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 80.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 35.2% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 14.1% 0.5    0.0 0.3 0.2
10-8 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 8.5% 8.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.7% 16.6% 16.6% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4
11-7 3.8% 18.7% 18.7% 15.5 0.4 0.4 3.1
10-8 7.8% 15.6% 15.6% 15.8 0.2 1.0 6.6
9-9 11.6% 12.8% 12.8% 15.9 0.2 1.3 10.1
8-10 16.4% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 1.3 15.0
7-11 19.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.9 18.5
6-12 17.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 17.5
5-13 11.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.7
4-14 6.2% 6.2
3-15 2.8% 2.8
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.9 5.2 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%