Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#170
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#160
Pace68.4#219
Improvement-2.2#290

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#150
First Shot+1.8#124
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#248
Layup/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#140
Freethrows+2.0#54
Improvement-0.5#214

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#203
First Shot-1.2#202
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#177
Layups/Dunks+0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#303
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#261
Freethrows+3.1#18
Improvement-1.6#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 18.0% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 84.4% 89.6% 69.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.1% 87.8% 65.7%
Conference Champion 7.6% 9.4% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 2.0%
First Round16.4% 17.6% 12.8%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 34 - 56 - 8
Quad 410 - 315 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 29, 2020 47   @ Rutgers L 56-70 11%     0 - 1 -1.4 -14.1 +13.7
  Nov 30, 2020 310   Fairleigh Dickinson W 73-58 85%     1 - 1 +3.1 -7.7 +10.9
  Dec 05, 2020 187   Iona L 74-82 63%     1 - 2 -11.9 -5.5 -5.9
  Dec 09, 2020 257   Stony Brook W 72-67 75%     2 - 2 -2.8 -0.6 -2.1
  Dec 15, 2020 159   @ Monmouth W 96-88 40%     3 - 2 +10.0 +12.6 -3.5
  Dec 19, 2020 58   @ St. Bonaventure L 69-77 13%     3 - 3 +3.8 +0.2 +3.9
  Dec 22, 2020 61   @ Richmond W 76-71 13%     4 - 3 +16.4 +15.1 +1.8
  Jan 02, 2021 270   William & Mary W 61-56 77%     5 - 3 1 - 0 -3.5 -13.2 +9.9
  Jan 03, 2021 270   William & Mary W 82-73 77%     6 - 3 2 - 0 +0.5 -1.5 +1.3
  Jan 07, 2021 140   Northeastern L 78-81 OT 48%     6 - 4 2 - 1 -3.2 -1.4 -1.4
  Jan 09, 2021 140   @ Northeastern L 56-67 34%     6 - 5 2 - 2 -7.5 -7.1 -1.4
  Jan 15, 2021 227   @ Delaware L 56-74 58%     6 - 6 2 - 3 -20.5 -16.3 -4.6
  Jan 17, 2021 227   @ Delaware W 68-67 58%     7 - 6 3 - 3 -1.5 -0.9 -0.6
  Jan 23, 2021 226   Towson W 71-58 71%     8 - 6 4 - 3 +6.8 +7.1 +2.2
  Jan 24, 2021 226   Towson W 73-67 74%    
  Jan 30, 2021 195   @ UNC Wilmington W 73-72 47%    
  Jan 31, 2021 195   @ UNC Wilmington W 73-72 47%    
  Feb 06, 2021 162   Drexel W 70-69 60%    
  Feb 07, 2021 162   Drexel W 70-69 60%    
  Feb 13, 2021 210   @ James Madison W 77-76 50%    
  Feb 14, 2021 210   @ James Madison W 77-76 50%    
  Feb 20, 2021 202   College of Charleston W 70-66 69%    
  Feb 21, 2021 202   College of Charleston W 70-66 69%    
  Feb 27, 2021 243   @ Elon W 70-67 54%    
  Feb 28, 2021 243   @ Elon W 70-67 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 2.5 1.6 0.5 7.6 1st
2nd 0.7 7.1 15.3 18.1 13.2 6.5 2.1 0.2 63.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.9 6.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 1.0 4.4 1.5 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 1.3 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 7th
8th 0.3 0.2 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.6 5.4 10.4 15.2 18.7 19.8 14.9 9.0 3.8 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 74.2% 0.5    0.4 0.1
14-4 43.1% 1.6    0.9 0.7
13-5 27.7% 2.5    1.3 1.2 0.0
12-6 11.3% 1.7    0.7 1.0 0.0
11-7 5.8% 1.1    0.3 0.8 0.1
10-8 1.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 7.6% 7.6 3.5 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.7% 25.0% 25.0% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-4 3.8% 30.5% 30.5% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 2.6
13-5 9.0% 27.2% 27.2% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 6.6
12-6 14.9% 22.9% 22.9% 14.5 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.2 11.5
11-7 19.8% 18.2% 18.2% 14.8 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.4 16.2
10-8 18.7% 14.2% 14.2% 15.1 0.3 1.6 0.7 16.0
9-9 15.2% 13.1% 13.1% 15.6 0.0 0.8 1.2 13.2
8-10 10.4% 9.1% 9.1% 15.8 0.2 0.7 9.4
7-11 5.4% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.4 5.0
6-12 1.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 1.4 4.5 7.1 3.7 83.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.5 48.5 51.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%