Elon
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#246
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#245
Pace65.2#281
Improvement-1.1#243

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#237
First Shot-6.1#309
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#22
Layup/Dunks-7.5#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
Freethrows+2.8#31
Improvement-2.0#297

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#255
First Shot-6.6#330
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#5
Layups/Dunks-5.6#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
Freethrows-4.4#339
Improvement+0.9#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.7% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 31.4% 52.6% 20.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 4.4% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.4% 29.4% 60.1%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
First Round3.3% 5.3% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 34.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 46 - 47 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 305   High Point W 76-75 71%     1 - 0 -10.0 -3.1 -6.9
  Dec 16, 2020 274   Campbell W 66-56 63%     2 - 0 +1.2 -5.0 +7.3
  Dec 19, 2020 118   UNC Greensboro L 64-71 25%     2 - 1 -5.1 -2.3 -3.2
  Jan 02, 2021 146   @ Northeastern L 52-75 21%     2 - 2 0 - 1 -19.8 -15.4 -5.3
  Jan 03, 2021 146   @ Northeastern L 58-66 21%     2 - 3 0 - 2 -4.8 -10.9 +6.0
  Jan 30, 2021 226   @ Delaware L 65-68 35%    
  Jan 31, 2021 226   @ Delaware L 65-68 36%    
  Feb 06, 2021 205   UNC Wilmington L 69-70 53%    
  Feb 07, 2021 205   UNC Wilmington L 69-70 52%    
  Feb 13, 2021 204   @ College of Charleston L 64-68 31%    
  Feb 14, 2021 204   @ College of Charleston L 64-68 31%    
  Feb 18, 2021 258   William & Mary W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 20, 2021 258   @ William & Mary L 67-68 42%    
  Feb 27, 2021 174   Hofstra L 68-71 45%    
  Feb 28, 2021 174   Hofstra L 68-71 45%    
Projected Record 6 - 9 4 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 1.9 0.2 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 3.9 0.4 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.2 1.6 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 5.0 4.4 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.1 7.4 1.1 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.8 8.9 3.6 0.1 18.5 9th
10th 1.8 5.7 10.5 11.3 4.9 0.4 34.6 10th
Total 1.8 5.8 11.6 16.5 18.4 17.7 13.2 8.8 4.3 1.6 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 8.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.2% 29.2% 29.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
9-9 1.6% 22.9% 22.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
8-10 4.3% 15.1% 15.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.7
7-11 8.8% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 7.8
6-12 13.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 12.5
5-13 17.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.5 17.2
4-14 18.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 18.2
3-15 16.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.4
2-16 11.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.5
1-17 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.8
0-18 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.9 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.1 1.6 84.4 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 1.3%