Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#13
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#12
Pace69.5#130
Improvement-5.3#336

Offense
Total Offense+11.6#6
First Shot+8.9#9
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#24
Layup/Dunks+7.8#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
Freethrows+1.4#72
Improvement+0.5#159

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#51
First Shot+5.8#29
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#269
Layups/Dunks-3.1#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#24
Freethrows+3.8#1
Improvement-5.8#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.7% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 8.2% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 91.9% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 3.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round89.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen59.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight28.6% n/a n/a
Final Four13.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game5.9% n/a n/a
National Champion2.5% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 13 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 16 - 2
Quad 26 - 312 - 5
Quad 37 - 119 - 6
Quad 49 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 3   Kentucky W 79-71 41%     1 - 0 +26.7 +9.7 +16.8
  Nov 12, 2021 289   Army W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +16.1 -3.4 +16.9
  Nov 13, 2021 234   Campbell W 67-56 97%     3 - 0 +5.0 +3.7 +3.3
  Nov 16, 2021 195   Gardner-Webb W 92-52 96%     4 - 0 +36.2 +18.3 +16.4
  Nov 19, 2021 310   Lafayette W 88-55 99%     5 - 0 +21.2 +5.4 +14.9
  Nov 22, 2021 255   The Citadel W 107-81 98%     6 - 0 +18.6 +26.5 -8.7
  Nov 26, 2021 1   Gonzaga W 84-81 24%     7 - 0 +26.9 +12.1 +14.5
  Nov 30, 2021 27   @ Ohio St. L 66-71 59%     7 - 1 +9.2 -3.7 +12.9
  Dec 14, 2021 324   South Carolina St. W 103-62 99%     8 - 1 +28.3 +14.3 +9.2
  Dec 16, 2021 159   Appalachian St. W 92-67 95%     9 - 1 +23.1 +24.2 +0.2
  Dec 18, 2021 246   Elon W 87-56 97%     10 - 1 +24.1 +9.4 +14.3
  Dec 22, 2021 22   Virginia Tech W 76-65 73%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +21.2 +13.8 +8.4
  Jan 04, 2022 142   Georgia Tech W 69-57 93%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +11.5 +0.9 +11.1
  Jan 08, 2022 54   Miami (FL) L 74-76 81%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +5.2 +0.5 +4.7
  Jan 12, 2022 35   @ Wake Forest W 76-64 62%     13 - 2 3 - 1 +25.3 +10.6 +14.9
  Jan 15, 2022 127   North Carolina St. W 88-73 92%     14 - 2 4 - 1 +15.5 +14.2 +1.5
  Jan 18, 2022 106   @ Florida St. L 78-79 OT 82%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +6.0 +7.7 -1.7
  Jan 22, 2022 65   Syracuse W 79-59 83%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +26.3 +6.6 +20.2
  Jan 25, 2022 76   Clemson W 71-69 85%     16 - 3 6 - 2 +7.6 +2.9 +4.8
  Jan 29, 2022 119   @ Louisville W 74-65 85%     17 - 3 7 - 2 +14.4 +12.0 +3.2
  Jan 31, 2022 48   @ Notre Dame W 57-43 66%     18 - 3 8 - 2 +26.1 -7.8 +34.9
  Feb 05, 2022 28   @ North Carolina W 87-67 60%     19 - 3 9 - 2 +34.0 +21.4 +13.0
  Feb 07, 2022 77   Virginia L 68-69 85%     19 - 4 9 - 3 +4.6 +5.4 -0.9
  Feb 10, 2022 76   @ Clemson W 82-64 73%     20 - 4 10 - 3 +28.0 +16.3 +12.4
  Feb 12, 2022 120   @ Boston College W 72-61 85%     21 - 4 11 - 3 +16.4 +7.1 +10.0
  Feb 15, 2022 35   Wake Forest W 76-74 77%     22 - 4 12 - 3 +10.9 +6.1 +4.7
  Feb 19, 2022 106   Florida St. W 88-70 90%     23 - 4 13 - 3 +20.6 +21.3 +0.1
  Feb 23, 2022 77   @ Virginia W 65-61 73%     24 - 4 14 - 3 +14.0 +9.6 +5.1
  Feb 26, 2022 65   @ Syracuse W 97-72 71%     25 - 4 15 - 3 +35.7 +38.6 +0.6
  Mar 01, 2022 165   @ Pittsburgh W 86-56 90%     26 - 4 16 - 3 +32.3 +27.2 +9.0
  Mar 05, 2022 28   North Carolina L 81-94 75%     26 - 5 16 - 4 -3.4 +6.5 -9.1
  Mar 10, 2022 65   Syracuse W 88-79 78%     27 - 5 +17.5 +16.4 +1.2
  Mar 11, 2022 54   Miami (FL) W 80-76 75%     28 - 5 +13.4 +12.4 +1.2
  Mar 12, 2022 22   Virginia Tech L 67-82 65%     28 - 6 -2.6 +3.0 -6.5
Projected Record 28 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 3.5 0.7 7.5 44.1 39.6 7.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 0.7 7.5 44.1 39.6 7.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%