Pre-tourney Rankings
Jacksonville St.
Atlantic Sun
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#153
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#158
Pace64.6#273
Improvement-0.3#190

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#147
First Shot+0.8#152
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#152
Layup/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#32
Freethrows-0.7#239
Improvement+0.2#179

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#180
First Shot+0.4#163
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#234
Layups/Dunks+2.2#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#287
Freethrows+1.7#63
Improvement-0.5#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 15.3 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.1% n/a n/a
First Round97.7% n/a n/a
Second Round4.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.1% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 24 - 5
Quad 415 - 519 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 92   @ Wichita St. L 57-60 24%     0 - 1 +5.2 -3.0 +7.8
  Nov 13, 2021 332   Alabama A&M W 70-47 90%     1 - 1 +9.9 +1.3 +10.1
  Nov 16, 2021 193   @ Troy L 65-69 3OT 50%     1 - 2 -3.2 -19.6 +17.3
  Nov 22, 2021 185   Valparaiso L 70-78 57%     1 - 3 -9.0 -4.1 -4.9
  Nov 24, 2021 162   Drexel W 72-64 52%     2 - 3 +8.2 +3.5 +5.3
  Nov 27, 2021 246   @ Elon W 93-81 63%     3 - 3 +9.5 +18.2 -8.8
  Dec 04, 2021 152   South Alabama L 64-74 58%     3 - 4 -11.3 -7.9 -3.6
  Dec 08, 2021 66   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 52-66 18%     3 - 5 -3.3 -7.7 +3.8
  Dec 15, 2021 264   Florida International W 66-59 80%     4 - 5 -1.1 -3.2 +2.9
  Dec 18, 2021 23   @ Alabama L 59-65 11%     4 - 6 +8.5 -4.0 +11.9
  Dec 21, 2021 317   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 87-67 79%     5 - 6 +12.2 +16.8 -2.8
  Jan 08, 2022 320   @ North Alabama W 65-55 79%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +2.1 -11.2 +12.9
  Jan 11, 2022 268   Lipscomb W 88-83 80%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -3.3 +6.6 -10.0
  Jan 15, 2022 262   @ Eastern Kentucky W 76-65 67%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +7.4 +1.4 +6.2
  Jan 18, 2022 316   @ Central Arkansas W 86-81 79%     9 - 6 4 - 0 -2.7 +3.7 -6.6
  Jan 22, 2022 205   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-71 69%     10 - 6 5 - 0 +3.6 +3.0 +0.7
  Jan 24, 2022 198   Bellarmine W 65-60 68%     11 - 6 6 - 0 +1.0 -6.3 +8.0
  Jan 27, 2022 230   @ Kennesaw St. W 70-64 58%     12 - 6 7 - 0 +4.7 +8.1 -2.2
  Jan 29, 2022 136   @ Liberty W 77-67 37%     13 - 6 8 - 0 +14.3 +8.6 +5.9
  Feb 03, 2022 266   North Florida L 76-88 80%     13 - 7 8 - 1 -20.2 +1.4 -21.8
  Feb 05, 2022 184   Jacksonville W 64-58 65%     14 - 7 9 - 1 +2.8 +4.9 -0.8
  Feb 09, 2022 294   @ Stetson L 57-63 73%     14 - 8 9 - 2 -11.7 -14.7 +2.5
  Feb 12, 2022 316   Central Arkansas L 62-72 88%     14 - 9 9 - 3 -22.1 -22.7 +1.1
  Feb 16, 2022 268   @ Lipscomb W 78-67 67%     15 - 9 10 - 3 +7.1 +2.9 +4.5
  Feb 20, 2022 198   @ Bellarmine W 82-67 51%     16 - 9 11 - 3 +15.4 +26.2 -6.9
  Feb 23, 2022 262   Eastern Kentucky W 81-68 80%     17 - 9 12 - 3 +5.0 +8.5 -2.6
  Feb 26, 2022 320   North Alabama W 69-52 89%     18 - 9 13 - 3 +4.7 +1.5 +5.2
  Mar 03, 2022 230   Kennesaw St. W 78-67 73%     19 - 9 +5.3 +3.3 +2.5
  Mar 05, 2022 184   Jacksonville L 51-54 65%     19 - 10 -6.2 -14.6 +8.0
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15.3 0.1 5.7 58.4 35.8
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 5.7 58.4 35.8