Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#28
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#25
Pace75.2#31
Improvement+0.0#182

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#24
First Shot+4.8#51
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#26
Layup/Dunks+1.6#104
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#98
Freethrows+1.7#55
Improvement-3.6#331

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#59
First Shot+2.0#109
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#17
Layups/Dunks+0.7#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
Freethrows+2.5#30
Improvement+3.5#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 8.7% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.9% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.9% n/a n/a
Average Seed 8.3 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% n/a n/a
First Round90.6% n/a n/a
Second Round48.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen13.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight5.3% n/a n/a
Final Four1.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.5% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 8
Quad 23 - 06 - 8
Quad 312 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 124 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 271   Loyola Maryland W 83-67 96%     1 - 0 +7.5 +2.9 +3.7
  Nov 12, 2021 215   Brown W 94-87 93%     2 - 0 +2.2 +18.6 -16.5
  Nov 16, 2021 157   @ College of Charleston W 94-83 81%     3 - 0 +13.7 +5.8 +6.0
  Nov 20, 2021 14   Purdue L 84-93 33%     3 - 1 +7.2 +7.8 +0.2
  Nov 21, 2021 7   Tennessee L 72-89 29%     3 - 2 +0.6 +7.0 -5.6
  Nov 23, 2021 235   UNC Asheville W 72-53 94%     4 - 2 +13.0 -0.3 +14.3
  Dec 01, 2021 24   Michigan W 72-51 57%     5 - 2 +30.9 +7.8 +24.9
  Dec 05, 2021 142   @ Georgia Tech W 79-62 77%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +20.9 +15.1 +6.9
  Dec 11, 2021 246   Elon W 80-63 95%     7 - 2 +10.1 -3.1 +11.7
  Dec 14, 2021 88   Furman W 74-61 77%     8 - 2 +17.1 +7.4 +11.0
  Dec 18, 2021 3   Kentucky L 69-98 25%     8 - 3 -10.3 +0.9 -10.3
  Dec 21, 2021 159   Appalachian St. W 70-50 89%     9 - 3 +18.1 -0.2 +19.0
  Jan 02, 2022 120   @ Boston College W 91-65 73%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +31.4 +18.7 +11.9
  Jan 05, 2022 48   @ Notre Dame L 73-78 49%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +7.1 +2.5 +4.8
  Jan 08, 2022 77   Virginia W 74-58 73%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +21.6 +15.0 +8.8
  Jan 15, 2022 142   Georgia Tech W 88-65 87%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +22.5 +12.6 +8.7
  Jan 18, 2022 54   @ Miami (FL) L 57-85 51%     12 - 5 4 - 2 -16.3 -13.0 -3.6
  Jan 22, 2022 35   @ Wake Forest L 76-98 44%     12 - 6 4 - 3 -8.7 +0.2 -6.2
  Jan 24, 2022 22   Virginia Tech W 78-68 56%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +20.2 +12.3 +8.3
  Jan 26, 2022 120   Boston College W 58-47 84%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +12.0 -8.3 +21.3
  Jan 29, 2022 127   North Carolina St. W 100-80 85%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +20.5 +17.5 +1.6
  Feb 01, 2022 119   @ Louisville W 90-83 OT 73%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +12.4 +10.9 +0.7
  Feb 05, 2022 13   Duke L 67-87 40%     16 - 7 8 - 4 -5.7 -0.6 -5.5
  Feb 08, 2022 76   @ Clemson W 79-77 57%     17 - 7 9 - 4 +12.0 +9.2 +2.8
  Feb 12, 2022 106   Florida St. W 94-74 81%     18 - 7 10 - 4 +22.6 +16.2 +4.9
  Feb 16, 2022 165   Pittsburgh L 67-76 90%     18 - 8 10 - 5 -11.1 -3.7 -7.6
  Feb 19, 2022 22   @ Virginia Tech W 65-57 39%     19 - 8 11 - 5 +22.6 +1.2 +21.8
  Feb 21, 2022 119   Louisville W 70-63 84%     20 - 8 12 - 5 +8.0 +2.6 +5.7
  Feb 26, 2022 127   @ North Carolina St. W 84-74 75%     21 - 8 13 - 5 +14.9 +10.0 +4.8
  Feb 28, 2022 65   Syracuse W 88-79 OT 70%     22 - 8 14 - 5 +15.3 +10.6 +4.4
  Mar 05, 2022 13   @ Duke W 94-81 25%     23 - 8 15 - 5 +31.7 +21.4 +9.5
  Mar 10, 2022 77   Virginia W 63-43 65%     24 - 8 +27.8 -0.5 +29.7
  Mar 11, 2022 22   Virginia Tech L 59-72 48%     24 - 9 -0.6 -3.9 +2.1
Projected Record 24 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 90.9% 90.9% 8.3 0.1 2.3 6.3 18.2 23.6 23.8 12.8 3.8 0.1 9.1 90.9%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.9% 0.0% 90.9% 8.3 0.1 2.3 6.3 18.2 23.6 23.8 12.8 3.8 0.1 9.1 90.9%