Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Memphis 78.3%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +15.2      +5.7 38 +9.4 2 76.3 44 0.0 1 0.0 1
13 Houston 75.7%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +15.1      +6.4 26 +8.6 4 61.9 333 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 Wichita St. 38.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +9.3      +3.6 71 +5.7 43 66.9 240 0.0 1 0.0 1
62 SMU 31.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +8.7      +5.5 41 +3.2 88 71.6 112 0.0 1 0.0 1
68 Central Florida 29.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +8.2      +3.4 78 +4.8 57 66.8 244 0.0 1 0.0 1
90 Cincinnati 18.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +6.0      +1.9 122 +4.2 66 74.8 64 0.0 1 0.0 1
108 Tulsa 12.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +4.5      +0.7 153 +3.7 72 64.7 293 0.0 1 0.0 1
120 Temple 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 +3.3      +0.2 168 +3.1 92 68.9 189 0.0 1 0.0 1
136 Tulane 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 +2.2      -0.4 186 +2.5 103 67.7 221 0.0 1 0.0 1
177 South Florida 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 12 -0.4      -2.1 247 +1.7 124 66.9 239 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 East Carolina 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 5 - 13 -0.8      -1.3 221 +0.5 164 68.8 196 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Memphis 2.5 39.8 22.9 13.9 8.8 5.6 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2
Houston 2.6 38.0 23.2 14.4 9.2 6.0 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
Wichita St. 4.7 11.1 13.4 14.3 13.7 12.0 10.3 8.7 6.9 4.9 3.2 1.4
SMU 4.8 9.8 13.1 14.2 13.8 12.2 10.8 8.9 6.8 5.2 3.5 1.7
Central Florida 4.9 8.9 12.4 14.0 13.8 12.5 11.2 9.0 7.1 5.3 3.7 2.0
Cincinnati 5.9 4.5 7.5 10.1 11.2 12.3 12.4 11.9 10.6 8.7 6.7 4.1
Tulsa 6.4 3.1 6.0 8.1 9.6 11.0 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.1 9.2 6.4
Temple 6.8 2.3 4.6 6.9 8.9 10.4 11.5 12.2 12.4 11.8 10.7 8.3
Tulane 7.5 1.3 2.9 4.4 6.2 8.0 10.1 12.1 13.5 14.7 14.5 12.4
South Florida 8.3 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.2 5.7 7.7 9.9 12.4 15.2 18.6 21.4
East Carolina 8.5 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.2 6.9 9.9 12.1 15.1 19.1 23.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.7 7.7 10.1 11.8 13.3 14.2 12.9 9.6 4.5
Houston 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.2 6.0 8.0 10.4 12.1 13.5 14.0 12.3 8.9 4.2
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.7 5.4 7.4 8.7 9.9 10.9 11.3 10.6 9.3 7.4 5.4 3.3 1.6 0.5
SMU 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.0 5.7 7.3 9.0 10.2 11.2 11.1 10.5 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.4 0.4
Central Florida 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.8 7.7 9.2 10.5 11.3 11.1 10.4 8.9 6.7 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.3
Cincinnati 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.2 6.8 8.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 10.5 9.2 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1
Tulsa 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.8 6.9 8.7 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.4 9.3 7.6 6.1 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Temple 8 - 10 0.5 1.9 3.5 5.8 7.9 9.5 10.7 11.0 10.9 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tulane 7 - 11 1.1 3.1 5.6 8.0 10.4 11.6 11.6 11.5 9.9 8.2 6.6 4.8 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Florida 6 - 12 2.4 6.1 9.0 11.2 12.6 12.2 11.4 9.5 7.9 6.1 4.4 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 2.8 6.4 10.0 11.8 12.7 12.4 11.3 9.4 7.4 5.7 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 39.8% 29.7 8.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Houston 38.0% 28.1 8.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 11.1% 7.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
SMU 9.8% 5.9 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 8.9% 5.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 4.5% 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 3.1% 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 2.3% 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tulane 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Florida 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 78.3% 30.9% 47.4% 4   10.0 9.9 8.1 8.0 6.8 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.5 4.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.7 68.6%
Houston 75.7% 30.5% 45.2% 5   8.7 8.7 7.6 7.8 6.3 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3 65.1%
Wichita St. 38.1% 9.8% 28.3% 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.6 4.3 4.8 5.2 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 61.9 31.4%
SMU 31.1% 8.5% 22.6% 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.8 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 68.9 24.7%
Central Florida 29.2% 7.7% 21.5% 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.3 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 70.8 23.3%
Cincinnati 18.0% 4.5% 13.5% 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.4 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.0 14.1%
Tulsa 12.5% 3.1% 9.4% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 87.5 9.7%
Temple 7.9% 2.2% 5.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.1 5.7%
Tulane 5.2% 1.6% 3.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.8 3.7%
South Florida 1.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2 1.1%
East Carolina 1.6% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4 1.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 78.3% 3.4% 76.7% 56.0% 32.2% 17.8% 9.4% 4.9% 2.6%
Houston 75.7% 3.9% 73.9% 53.4% 30.6% 16.7% 8.9% 4.7% 2.3%
Wichita St. 38.1% 4.7% 35.7% 20.3% 8.7% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
SMU 31.1% 4.4% 29.0% 16.0% 6.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Central Florida 29.2% 4.0% 27.2% 15.1% 6.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Cincinnati 18.0% 3.3% 16.2% 8.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Tulsa 12.5% 2.3% 11.3% 5.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Temple 7.9% 1.5% 7.1% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Tulane 5.2% 1.2% 4.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.0 5.4 27.0 38.3 22.2 6.2 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.8 7.2 30.8 37.9 19.1 4.5 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 93.1% 1.8 6.9 31.8 39.4 18.0 3.5 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 67.3% 0.9 32.7 46.4 18.3 2.5 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 40.4% 0.5 59.6 34.8 5.3 0.2 0.0
Final Four 21.8% 0.2 78.2 20.6 1.2 0.0
Final Game 11.3% 0.1 88.7 11.1 0.2
Champion 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7