Preseason Rankings
Central Florida
American Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#68
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#244
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#78
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.5% 4.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 8.6% 9.0% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.2% 30.3% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.3% 24.3% 5.0%
Average Seed 8.2 8.2 9.9
.500 or above 74.5% 76.5% 35.0%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 69.3% 36.8%
Conference Champion 8.9% 9.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.2% 11.0%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 1.4%
First Round27.2% 28.3% 5.7%
Second Round15.1% 15.7% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen6.1% 6.4% 0.6%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.7% 0.0%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 7
Quad 23 - 35 - 10
Quad 36 - 211 - 12
Quad 48 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 282   Robert Morris W 80-62 95%    
  Nov 13, 2021 85   @ Miami (FL) L 70-71 45%    
  Nov 16, 2021 302   Jacksonville W 79-60 95%    
  Nov 20, 2021 198   @ Evansville W 68-61 72%    
  Nov 27, 2021 40   Oklahoma W 69-68 50%    
  Dec 01, 2021 26   @ Auburn L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 05, 2021 350   Bethune-Cookman W 83-55 99%    
  Dec 11, 2021 286   N.C. A&T W 81-63 93%    
  Dec 15, 2021 120   @ Temple W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 18, 2021 18   Florida St. L 68-74 33%    
  Dec 22, 2021 318   North Alabama W 82-62 95%    
  Dec 30, 2021 2   Michigan L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 02, 2022 62   @ SMU L 70-74 39%    
  Jan 05, 2022 120   Temple W 72-64 73%    
  Jan 08, 2022 108   Tulsa W 70-63 70%    
  Jan 12, 2022 11   Memphis L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 15, 2022 177   @ South Florida W 70-64 67%    
  Jan 18, 2022 183   @ East Carolina W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 136   Tulane W 72-63 76%    
  Jan 26, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 13   Houston L 63-67 38%    
  Feb 03, 2022 177   South Florida W 73-61 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 11   @ Memphis L 67-77 22%    
  Feb 08, 2022 54   Wichita St. W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 17, 2022 13   @ Houston L 60-70 22%    
  Feb 20, 2022 183   East Carolina W 75-63 83%    
  Feb 23, 2022 90   Cincinnati W 74-69 66%    
  Mar 03, 2022 136   @ Tulane W 69-66 59%    
  Mar 06, 2022 108   @ Tulsa W 67-66 52%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.3 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.0 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.2 1.5 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.8 7.7 9.2 10.5 11.3 11.1 10.4 8.9 6.7 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.2% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 85.3% 2.3    1.7 0.6 0.0
15-3 57.4% 2.7    1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 25.8% 1.7    0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 5.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 99.8% 42.4% 57.4% 3.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-2 2.7% 98.0% 33.3% 64.7% 4.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.0%
15-3 4.8% 94.6% 27.5% 67.1% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 92.5%
14-4 6.7% 81.7% 18.8% 62.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 77.4%
13-5 8.9% 64.3% 13.8% 50.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 3.2 58.6%
12-6 10.4% 43.0% 8.6% 34.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.9 37.6%
11-7 11.1% 24.5% 5.6% 19.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.4 20.1%
10-8 11.3% 12.3% 3.8% 8.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 8.8%
9-9 10.5% 5.1% 1.9% 3.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9 3.2%
8-10 9.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.6%
7-11 7.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.1%
6-12 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
5-13 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 29.2% 7.7% 21.5% 8.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.3 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 70.8 23.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 77.3 21.9 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 56.6 43.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 33.3 66.7