Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
28 St. Bonaventure 60.6%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +12.4      +5.8 36 +6.6 26 62.1 332 0.0 1 0.0 1
57 Richmond 39.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 6 +9.2      +5.1 49 +4.1 67 69.9 155 0.0 1 0.0 1
77 Virginia Commonwealth 27.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +7.1      +1.6 127 +5.5 46 72.6 96 0.0 1 0.0 1
79 Saint Louis 25.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +6.9      +3.2 84 +3.7 74 68.8 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
87 Dayton 18.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +6.2      +2.6 104 +3.6 78 63.7 310 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Davidson 16.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +5.4      +3.6 69 +1.8 122 59.4 351 0.0 1 0.0 1
101 Rhode Island 16.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +5.3      +2.2 113 +3.2 90 71.5 115 0.0 1 0.0 1
119 Massachusetts 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 8 +3.4      +2.3 108 +1.1 137 76.3 43 0.0 1 0.0 1
162 Duquesne 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 +0.3      -1.2 219 +1.6 128 70.2 143 0.0 1 0.0 1
169 George Mason 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 11 +0.1      -0.6 194 +0.7 154 68.2 206 0.0 1 0.0 1
193 Saint Joseph's 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 12 -1.6      +0.1 172 -1.7 232 78.0 24 0.0 1 0.0 1
210 La Salle 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 12 -2.2      -1.3 222 -0.9 201 70.2 147 0.0 1 0.0 1
238 George Washington 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 5 - 13 -4.3      -2.0 242 -2.3 248 70.3 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 Fordham 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 5 - 13 -6.1      -7.9 348 +1.8 121 60.0 349 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
St. Bonaventure 2.9 39.8 19.2 12.1 8.6 6.2 4.5 3.3 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
Richmond 4.2 21.0 16.4 13.2 11.3 9.5 7.7 6.1 4.6 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3
Virginia Commonwealth 5.4 11.5 11.8 11.3 11.0 10.3 9.4 8.5 7.3 6.0 4.8 3.5 2.4 1.5 0.6
Saint Louis 5.5 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.3 9.4 8.6 7.4 6.3 5.0 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.6
Dayton 5.5 11.1 12.2 11.5 10.8 9.9 8.8 8.1 7.1 6.4 4.8 4.0 2.8 1.7 0.8
Davidson 5.5 9.5 11.5 11.8 10.9 10.5 9.5 8.5 7.2 6.3 5.1 3.9 2.7 1.6 0.9
Rhode Island 5.7 9.3 11.4 11.2 10.7 10.1 9.3 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.3 4.1 3.1 2.0 1.0
Massachusetts 6.5 5.3 7.8 9.0 9.6 10.1 10.0 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.0 5.6 4.5 2.9 1.5
Duquesne 8.5 1.9 3.2 4.2 5.4 6.6 7.8 8.7 9.5 10.3 10.4 10.1 9.1 7.6 5.2
George Mason 8.7 1.9 3.2 4.2 5.1 6.2 7.2 8.3 8.7 9.7 10.1 10.2 9.8 8.9 6.4
Saint Joseph's 9.6 0.8 1.7 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.6 7.1 8.3 9.7 11.2 12.0 12.7 12.0 8.8
La Salle 9.8 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.2 4.3 5.2 6.7 7.7 9.0 10.8 11.9 12.7 12.7 11.3
George Washington 10.6 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.8 6.4 8.1 9.8 11.9 14.3 16.4 17.2
Fordham 11.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.8 6.7 8.5 11.0 14.3 18.7 24.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
St. Bonaventure 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.3 7.3 9.5 11.7 13.6 14.3 13.5 10.3 5.3
Richmond 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.2 7.0 9.0 10.7 11.7 12.2 11.6 10.1 7.5 4.5 1.6
Virginia Commonwealth 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.1 8.3 10.0 11.0 11.4 11.1 10.2 8.6 5.9 3.8 2.0 0.6
Saint Louis 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.4 8.4 10.0 11.0 11.3 11.3 9.9 8.3 5.9 3.8 1.8 0.5
Dayton 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.1 9.5 10.5 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.4 6.4 4.1 2.1 0.7
Davidson 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.9 6.7 8.3 9.9 11.1 11.5 11.1 10.2 8.1 5.9 3.6 1.7 0.4
Rhode Island 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.4 5.1 6.9 8.4 10.0 11.0 11.1 10.8 9.7 7.9 5.6 3.5 1.7 0.5
Massachusetts 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.8 10.1 11.4 11.6 10.6 9.5 7.9 5.5 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.4 1.4 3.3 5.5 7.5 9.6 11.0 11.6 11.3 10.3 8.6 7.1 4.9 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
George Mason 7 - 11 0.6 2.0 4.1 6.3 8.2 9.9 11.0 11.0 10.5 9.5 8.2 6.5 4.9 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Saint Joseph's 6 - 12 0.9 3.1 5.5 8.6 11.0 12.0 12.2 11.5 10.0 8.1 6.2 4.5 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
La Salle 6 - 12 1.3 3.9 6.6 9.2 11.0 11.9 11.8 11.1 9.2 7.6 5.9 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Washington 5 - 13 2.4 5.9 9.6 11.9 12.8 12.7 11.4 9.7 7.7 5.7 3.9 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 4.3 8.8 12.2 13.8 13.5 12.2 10.4 7.9 5.9 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Bonaventure 39.8% 28.9 8.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Richmond 21.0% 13.6 5.7 1.4 0.3 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 11.5% 6.9 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 11.3% 6.6 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dayton 11.1% 6.5 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Davidson 9.5% 5.4 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 9.3% 5.3 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 5.3% 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Mason 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Bonaventure 60.6% 30.4% 30.1% 11   3.8 4.3 4.2 5.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.4 5.4 6.4 7.2 5.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 39.4 43.3%
Richmond 39.5% 16.2% 23.2% 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.1 4.3 5.1 6.1 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 60.5 27.8%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.1% 10.1% 17.0% 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.1 3.9 5.1 4.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.9 18.9%
Saint Louis 25.0% 9.8% 15.2% 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.6 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 75.0 16.8%
Dayton 18.5% 8.7% 9.7% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.3 3.5 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 81.5 10.7%
Davidson 16.9% 7.4% 9.5% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.3 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 83.1 10.3%
Rhode Island 16.4% 7.3% 9.1% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.5 2.0 3.2 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 83.6 9.8%
Massachusetts 10.0% 4.3% 5.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 90.0 5.9%
Duquesne 4.0% 1.8% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.0 2.2%
George Mason 3.5% 1.6% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.5 1.9%
Saint Joseph's 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.4 0.7%
La Salle 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7 0.5%
George Washington 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.1%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Bonaventure 60.6% 5.1% 58.1% 36.7% 18.2% 8.9% 4.2% 1.9% 0.9%
Richmond 39.5% 4.7% 37.1% 20.1% 8.5% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.1% 4.4% 24.9% 12.2% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Saint Louis 25.0% 4.0% 22.9% 11.0% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Dayton 18.5% 2.9% 17.0% 7.8% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Davidson 16.9% 3.2% 15.3% 6.7% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Rhode Island 16.4% 3.1% 14.8% 6.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Massachusetts 10.0% 2.1% 9.0% 3.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 4.0% 0.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 3.5% 0.8% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 1.6% 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.3 22.5 41.3 26.6 8.1 1.4 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.1 0.0 27.9 42.9 22.6 5.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 74.0% 1.1 26.0 46.1 22.7 4.7 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 39.4% 0.5 60.6 33.8 5.2 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 18.6% 0.2 81.4 17.6 0.9 0.0
Final Four 8.2% 0.1 91.8 8.0 0.2
Final Game 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
Champion 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5