Preseason Rankings
Richmond
Atlantic 10
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#57
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#155
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#67
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 7.0% 7.1% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 12.0% 12.2% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.5% 39.8% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.8% 28.0% 4.9%
Average Seed 8.2 8.2 10.6
.500 or above 86.2% 86.6% 45.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 86.3% 55.6%
Conference Champion 21.0% 21.2% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 4.1%
First Four4.7% 4.7% 2.2%
First Round37.1% 37.4% 8.6%
Second Round20.1% 20.3% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.5% 8.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight3.7% 3.7% 0.2%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 38 - 314 - 10
Quad 48 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 339   NC Central W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 72   Utah St. W 73-71 56%    
  Nov 16, 2021 121   Georgia St. W 81-72 79%    
  Nov 20, 2021 73   @ Drake L 71-72 45%    
  Nov 22, 2021 192   Hofstra W 81-67 87%    
  Nov 25, 2021 16   Maryland L 66-71 35%    
  Dec 01, 2021 139   @ Wofford W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 05, 2021 107   @ Northern Iowa W 76-74 55%    
  Dec 11, 2021 114   Toledo W 80-72 75%    
  Dec 17, 2021 59   North Carolina St. W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 19, 2021 131   Old Dominion W 76-66 78%    
  Dec 22, 2021 294   Bucknell W 86-67 94%    
  Dec 30, 2021 193   Saint Joseph's W 85-71 86%    
  Jan 02, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 05, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 81-72 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 275   @ Fordham W 69-57 84%    
  Jan 11, 2022 169   George Mason W 78-66 83%    
  Jan 14, 2022 98   Davidson W 72-65 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 210   @ La Salle W 77-69 75%    
  Jan 25, 2022 101   @ Rhode Island W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 77   Virginia Commonwealth W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 01, 2022 162   @ Duquesne W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 04, 2022 28   St. Bonaventure L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 09, 2022 169   @ George Mason W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 210   La Salle W 80-66 87%    
  Feb 18, 2022 77   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 22, 2022 238   @ George Washington W 79-69 79%    
  Feb 25, 2022 79   Saint Louis W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 01, 2022 87   Dayton W 72-66 68%    
  Mar 04, 2022 28   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-71 31%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.4 6.4 4.5 1.6 21.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.8 6.2 4.3 1.1 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.2 7.0 9.0 10.7 11.7 12.2 11.6 10.1 7.5 4.5 1.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 99.2% 4.5    4.1 0.3
16-2 84.6% 6.4    4.5 1.8 0.1
15-3 53.3% 5.4    2.7 2.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 22.3% 2.6    0.7 1.2 0.6 0.2
13-5 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.0% 21.0 13.6 5.7 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 99.7% 63.3% 36.4% 2.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
17-1 4.5% 98.1% 47.6% 50.5% 4.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.3%
16-2 7.5% 92.6% 39.3% 53.3% 6.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 87.9%
15-3 10.1% 81.9% 30.3% 51.6% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 74.0%
14-4 11.6% 64.6% 21.8% 42.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.1 54.7%
13-5 12.2% 44.5% 16.3% 28.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.8 33.6%
12-6 11.7% 25.8% 10.3% 15.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.7 17.3%
11-7 10.7% 13.0% 6.6% 6.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.3 6.9%
10-8 9.0% 6.4% 3.9% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 2.6%
9-9 7.0% 3.2% 2.6% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.6%
8-10 5.2% 1.4% 1.2% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.2%
7-11 3.6% 0.4% 0.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 39.5% 16.2% 23.2% 8.2 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.1 4.3 5.1 6.1 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 60.5 27.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 57.1 33.1 6.6 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 50.0 19.9 18.2 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 46.7 43.3 10.0