Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Duke 80.9%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +15.8      +8.8 8 +7.0 20 69.5 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
18 Florida St. 69.9%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +13.8      +6.7 22 +7.1 18 72.1 103 0.0 1 0.0 1
22 North Carolina 68.9%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +13.5      +7.7 18 +5.8 41 76.7 34 0.0 1 0.0 1
27 Louisville 62.1%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 8 +12.5      +6.0 31 +6.5 30 64.9 289 0.0 1 0.0 1
29 Virginia 58.0%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +12.4      +2.8 98 +9.6 1 54.2 358 0.0 1 0.0 1
34 Virginia Tech 56.9%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 9 +11.9      +5.7 37 +6.1 35 65.1 281 0.0 1 0.0 1
44 Syracuse 48.1%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 9 +10.5      +6.9 21 +3.7 75 70.1 150 0.0 1 0.0 1
45 Notre Dame 44.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 9 +10.4      +7.8 17 +2.7 100 66.9 242 0.0 1 0.0 1
55 Clemson 39.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 10 +9.3      +2.7 102 +6.6 28 61.7 336 0.0 1 0.0 1
59 North Carolina St. 38.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +9.1      +4.3 59 +4.7 59 68.3 204 0.0 1 0.0 1
60 Georgia Tech 36.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +8.9      +3.4 77 +5.5 45 67.8 217 0.0 1 0.0 1
85 Miami (FL) 22.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 12 +6.6      +4.0 64 +2.6 102 68.1 210 0.0 1 0.0 1
103 Wake Forest 12.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 13 +4.8      +2.7 99 +2.1 114 66.5 252 0.0 1 0.0 1
117 Pittsburgh 10.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 14 +3.7      +1.3 137 +2.5 105 70.0 154 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Boston College 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 5 - 15 +1.8      +0.9 151 +0.9 142 76.6 36 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 4.2 25.1 16.0 12.2 9.6 8.0 6.7 5.5 4.5 3.7 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.3
Florida St. 5.1 17.1 13.2 11.3 10.1 8.8 7.7 6.6 5.7 5.1 4.3 3.5 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.7
North Carolina 5.4 15.2 12.3 11.2 9.9 8.7 7.8 7.1 6.3 5.2 4.7 3.8 3.0 2.3 1.5 0.8
Louisville 5.8 12.4 11.3 10.6 9.6 9.0 8.3 7.3 6.8 6.1 5.1 4.4 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.0
Virginia 6.0 11.4 10.3 9.8 9.4 8.9 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.6 5.6 4.9 3.8 3.1 2.0 1.1
Virginia Tech 6.2 10.7 10.1 9.7 9.3 8.9 8.2 7.9 7.1 6.5 5.8 5.0 4.0 3.4 2.3 1.1
Syracuse 6.8 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.6 8.9 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.2 6.6 5.8 5.0 4.1 3.0 1.9
Notre Dame 6.8 8.3 8.5 8.2 8.5 8.4 8.1 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.0 5.3 4.3 3.3 2.2
Clemson 8.0 4.6 5.3 6.1 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.4 6.6 5.2 3.5
North Carolina St. 8.2 4.3 5.1 5.7 6.1 6.7 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.1 8.4 7.7 6.8 5.9 3.9
Georgia Tech 7.9 4.7 5.6 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.0 8.1 7.7 7.3 6.2 4.9 3.5
Miami (FL) 9.6 2.0 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.6 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.2 9.6 9.9 9.9 7.9
Wake Forest 10.7 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.9 5.9 6.9 8.1 9.6 11.4 12.7 14.2 12.1
Pittsburgh 11.1 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.6 4.3 5.3 6.4 7.8 9.2 11.3 13.4 14.7 15.5
Boston College 12.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.9 6.2 8.1 10.2 13.4 18.2 24.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.5 8.8 10.2 10.8 11.1 10.6 8.8 6.8 4.4 1.6
Florida St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.8 5.0 6.2 7.5 8.6 10.0 10.1 10.3 9.4 8.5 6.7 4.6 2.5 0.9
North Carolina 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.0 3.9 5.4 6.7 8.0 9.0 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.2 7.7 5.9 4.1 2.2 0.7
Louisville 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.8 6.0 7.6 8.5 9.4 10.1 10.0 9.7 8.5 6.7 5.1 3.1 1.7 0.5
Virginia 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.1 6.8 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.0 9.7 9.0 7.8 6.3 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.4
Virginia Tech 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.3 6.9 8.0 8.8 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.0 7.6 6.0 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.4
Syracuse 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.6 4.9 6.6 7.6 8.7 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.1 7.9 6.5 4.9 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.1
Notre Dame 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.6 5.2 6.6 7.7 8.6 9.2 9.5 9.2 8.8 7.8 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.3
Clemson 10 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.3 5.7 7.4 8.5 9.3 9.7 10.0 9.2 8.1 6.9 5.6 4.4 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
North Carolina St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.1 4.7 6.2 7.5 8.5 9.3 10.0 9.5 8.9 7.9 6.5 5.4 3.8 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
Georgia Tech 10 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.8 7.0 8.2 9.2 9.8 9.7 9.1 8.4 7.2 5.9 4.3 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
Miami (FL) 8 - 12 0.6 2.1 3.6 5.6 7.3 8.7 9.3 9.7 10.0 9.2 8.5 7.1 5.7 4.3 3.4 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 7 - 13 1.1 3.3 5.9 8.3 9.9 10.8 11.1 10.4 9.4 7.9 6.5 5.1 3.7 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 6 - 14 1.5 4.1 6.9 9.1 10.6 11.4 11.2 10.0 8.8 7.3 5.8 4.5 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 5 - 15 3.5 7.3 10.3 11.7 12.2 11.7 10.1 8.8 6.9 5.6 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 25.1% 17.4 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 17.1% 11.2 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 15.2% 9.9 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisville 12.4% 7.7 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia 11.4% 7.2 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 10.7% 6.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 7.9% 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 8.3% 5.0 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 4.6% 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 4.3% 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 4.7% 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 2.0% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 80.9% 19.8% 61.1% 3   12.9 11.5 9.6 8.5 7.4 6.5 6.2 5.4 4.4 3.6 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 19.1 76.2%
Florida St. 69.9% 12.6% 57.3% 5   7.5 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.2 5.3 4.8 3.7 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 30.1 65.5%
North Carolina 68.9% 11.8% 57.1% 5   7.2 7.4 7.6 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.5 4.8 4.0 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1 64.8%
Louisville 62.1% 9.9% 52.2% 7   5.0 5.6 6.3 6.0 6.2 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.1 3.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.9 57.9%
Virginia 58.0% 9.4% 48.6% 8   3.8 4.9 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 42.0 53.6%
Virginia Tech 56.9% 8.6% 48.3% 8   3.8 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.0 4.2 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 43.1 52.9%
Syracuse 48.1% 6.1% 42.0% 10   2.1 3.2 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.2 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 51.9 44.7%
Notre Dame 44.4% 5.8% 38.6% 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 55.6 41.0%
Clemson 39.3% 4.2% 35.1% 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 60.7 36.6%
North Carolina St. 38.9% 4.0% 35.0% 1.4 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.8 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 61.1 36.4%
Georgia Tech 36.0% 3.9% 32.0% 1.0 1.6 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.0 33.3%
Miami (FL) 22.6% 1.9% 20.6% 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.4 21.0%
Wake Forest 12.0% 1.0% 11.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 88.0 11.1%
Pittsburgh 10.5% 0.7% 9.8% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 89.5 9.8%
Boston College 5.3% 0.4% 4.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7 4.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 80.9% 2.5% 79.8% 61.0% 36.9% 20.6% 11.3% 6.1% 3.2%
Florida St. 69.9% 3.5% 68.1% 48.6% 26.7% 13.8% 6.8% 3.4% 1.6%
North Carolina 68.9% 3.4% 67.3% 47.3% 25.7% 13.1% 6.4% 3.0% 1.4%
Louisville 62.1% 3.6% 60.3% 40.5% 20.9% 10.4% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0%
Virginia 58.0% 3.7% 56.1% 37.7% 19.3% 9.6% 4.5% 2.0% 1.0%
Virginia Tech 56.9% 3.6% 55.1% 36.2% 18.1% 8.6% 4.1% 1.9% 0.8%
Syracuse 48.1% 4.2% 45.9% 28.2% 13.0% 5.9% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Notre Dame 44.4% 3.6% 42.6% 26.6% 12.3% 5.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Clemson 39.3% 3.9% 37.3% 21.9% 9.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%
North Carolina St. 38.9% 3.6% 37.1% 21.5% 9.2% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Georgia Tech 36.0% 3.5% 34.1% 19.8% 8.3% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Miami (FL) 22.6% 2.9% 21.1% 11.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Wake Forest 12.0% 1.8% 11.0% 5.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 10.5% 1.6% 9.6% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Boston College 5.3% 1.1% 4.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.0 15.4 27.8 27.6 16.5 5.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.1 1.3 7.0 18.7 29.2 25.5 13.4 4.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 4.1 0.1 1.9 8.9 21.4 29.3 23.3 11.2 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 93.5% 2.1 6.5 25.5 34.3 23.1 8.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 70.0% 1.0 30.0 43.3 21.4 4.7 0.5 0.0
Final Four 42.1% 0.5 57.9 35.6 6.2 0.4 0.0
Final Game 22.4% 0.2 77.6 21.3 1.1
Champion 11.0% 0.1 89.0 11.0