Preseason Rankings
Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#85
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#210
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.3% 3.6% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.8% 7.4% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 24.1% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.0% 22.5% 3.8%
Average Seed 7.9 7.9 8.9
.500 or above 50.1% 52.9% 15.5%
.500 or above in Conference 33.9% 35.8% 11.5%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 11.4% 29.1%
First Four2.9% 3.1% 0.7%
First Round21.1% 22.5% 3.7%
Second Round11.2% 12.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 8
Quad 24 - 46 - 13
Quad 34 - 210 - 15
Quad 45 - 015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 265   Canisius W 82-67 92%    
  Nov 13, 2021 68   Central Florida W 71-70 55%    
  Nov 16, 2021 159   @ Florida Atlantic W 73-70 61%    
  Nov 21, 2021 304   Florida A&M W 79-61 94%    
  Nov 25, 2021 87   Dayton W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 01, 2021 53   @ Penn St. L 70-76 32%    
  Dec 04, 2021 55   Clemson W 67-66 51%    
  Dec 08, 2021 226   Lipscomb W 77-64 86%    
  Dec 12, 2021 275   Fordham W 69-56 85%    
  Dec 20, 2021 251   Stetson W 80-65 88%    
  Dec 29, 2021 59   North Carolina St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 01, 2022 103   Wake Forest W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 05, 2022 44   Syracuse L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 08, 2022 10   @ Duke L 67-79 16%    
  Jan 11, 2022 18   @ Florida St. L 68-78 21%    
  Jan 18, 2022 22   North Carolina L 75-79 38%    
  Jan 22, 2022 18   Florida St. L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 26, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 29, 2022 60   @ Georgia Tech L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 02, 2022 45   Notre Dame L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 05, 2022 29   @ Virginia L 56-65 24%    
  Feb 09, 2022 60   Georgia Tech W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 103   @ Wake Forest L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 16, 2022 27   @ Louisville L 65-74 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 29   Virginia L 59-62 41%    
  Feb 22, 2022 117   @ Pittsburgh L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 34   Virginia Tech L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 02, 2022 144   @ Boston College W 77-75 55%    
  Mar 05, 2022 44   @ Syracuse L 71-78 29%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.5 1.2 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.9 13th
14th 0.2 1.2 2.9 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.9 14th
15th 0.6 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.9 15th
Total 0.6 2.1 3.6 5.6 7.3 8.7 9.3 9.7 10.0 9.2 8.5 7.1 5.7 4.3 3.4 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 95.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-2 83.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0 0.0
17-3 71.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 36.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 14.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 3.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.4% 99.9% 17.3% 82.5% 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 2.1% 98.7% 14.8% 84.0% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
14-6 3.4% 96.0% 9.6% 86.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.5%
13-7 4.3% 87.1% 4.8% 82.3% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 86.5%
12-8 5.7% 72.1% 3.3% 68.8% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 71.2%
11-9 7.1% 48.1% 1.8% 46.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 47.1%
10-10 8.5% 26.3% 0.9% 25.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.3 25.6%
9-11 9.2% 8.0% 0.7% 7.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.4 7.4%
8-12 10.0% 1.6% 0.3% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 1.3%
7-13 9.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.1%
6-14 9.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0%
5-15 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
4-16 7.3% 7.3
3-17 5.6% 5.6
2-18 3.6% 3.6
1-19 2.1% 2.1
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 22.6% 1.9% 20.6% 7.9 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.4 21.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0