Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
110 Liberty 37.4%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 7 12 - 4 +4.4      +1.6 128 +2.8 97 60.3 348 0.0 1 0.0 1
164 Jacksonville St. 17.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 6 +0.3      +0.2 167 +0.1 173 64.8 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
165 Bellarmine 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 6 +0.3      +1.4 136 -1.1 210 63.6 312 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 Eastern Kentucky 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 6 -0.5      +0.7 156 -1.2 218 84.0 2 0.0 1 0.0 1
222 Florida Gulf Coast 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 7 -3.2      -2.0 243 -1.2 220 75.9 47 0.0 1 0.0 1
226 Lipscomb 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -3.6      -0.8 201 -2.8 261 65.1 284 0.0 1 0.0 1
251 Stetson 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 8 - 8 -5.0      -1.8 238 -3.2 274 67.7 220 0.0 1 0.0 1
280 North Florida 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 9 -6.4      -0.8 202 -5.6 325 67.2 233 0.0 1 0.0 1
302 Jacksonville 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 6 - 10 -7.7      -4.3 305 -3.3 275 68.6 198 0.0 1 0.0 1
311 Kennesaw St. 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 6 - 10 -8.4      -5.7 331 -2.7 256 71.0 129 0.0 1 0.0 1
318 North Alabama 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 6 - 10 -9.0      -5.0 319 -4.0 295 73.2 87 0.0 1 0.0 1
334 Central Arkansas 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 12 -11.4      -4.2 300 -7.1 343 75.2 60 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 2.5 44.1 21.4 12.0 8.0 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1
Jacksonville St. 4.1 17.9 17.7 14.8 12.6 10.1 7.9 6.4 4.7 3.4 2.3 1.4 0.7
Bellarmine 4.1 18.9 16.8 14.5 12.2 10.0 8.2 6.2 5.0 3.5 2.5 1.4 0.8
Eastern Kentucky 4.4 15.4 15.3 13.8 12.6 10.5 9.3 7.2 5.6 4.4 3.0 1.9 0.9
Florida Gulf Coast 5.6 8.2 9.8 11.2 11.9 11.1 10.5 9.4 8.4 6.9 5.8 4.3 2.5
Lipscomb 5.8 6.7 9.2 10.5 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.2 9.1 7.6 6.3 4.4 2.9
Stetson 6.5 5.3 6.9 8.4 9.6 10.1 10.3 10.3 9.8 9.3 8.3 6.9 4.7
North Florida 7.1 2.9 4.7 6.3 8.2 9.2 10.1 10.8 11.1 11.0 10.3 9.1 6.4
Jacksonville 7.7 2.0 3.4 4.9 6.3 7.7 9.0 10.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 11.9 9.4
Kennesaw St. 8.1 1.4 2.6 4.2 5.5 6.9 8.5 10.0 11.4 12.4 13.1 13.3 10.8
North Alabama 8.4 1.2 2.3 3.3 4.7 6.1 7.5 9.4 11.3 12.8 14.2 14.1 13.1
Central Arkansas 9.4 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.5 4.9 6.6 8.5 11.1 14.4 19.2 25.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.9 5.6 8.5 10.8 13.6 15.7 16.1 13.5 7.3
Jacksonville St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.8 8.9 10.7 12.7 12.9 12.3 10.9 7.5 4.5 1.4
Bellarmine 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.0 6.9 9.0 11.0 12.0 12.7 12.0 10.2 7.9 4.7 1.7
Eastern Kentucky 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.0 5.9 8.0 9.8 11.5 12.4 12.2 11.2 9.1 6.5 3.6 1.2
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 7 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.0 6.9 8.8 10.3 11.8 11.8 11.4 9.8 8.0 5.4 3.3 1.5 0.5
Lipscomb 8 - 8 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.7 5.5 7.5 9.6 11.3 12.1 11.7 11.1 9.1 6.9 4.7 2.8 1.2 0.3
Stetson 8 - 8 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.2 7.4 9.2 10.7 11.3 11.5 10.5 9.5 7.5 5.4 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2
North Florida 7 - 9 0.7 2.2 4.3 6.9 9.2 11.0 12.1 12.0 11.3 9.8 7.8 5.5 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Jacksonville 6 - 10 1.1 3.3 6.3 8.9 11.2 12.1 12.3 11.4 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.2 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
Kennesaw St. 6 - 10 1.3 3.8 7.3 10.1 11.9 12.9 12.5 11.2 9.4 7.3 5.2 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
North Alabama 6 - 10 1.7 4.9 8.4 10.9 12.8 13.4 12.2 10.7 8.6 6.3 4.4 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 4 - 12 5.1 10.3 13.6 14.3 13.8 11.8 9.9 7.3 5.5 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 44.1% 31.9 9.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 17.9% 10.9 5.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 18.9% 11.8 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 15.4% 9.2 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 8.2% 4.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lipscomb 6.7% 3.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 5.3% 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Florida 2.9% 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 2.0% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 1.2% 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 37.4% 36.9% 0.5% 16   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.2 4.6 8.3 9.1 7.3 4.4 62.6 0.8%
Jacksonville St. 17.2% 17.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.0 4.2 4.3 3.6 82.8 0.2%
Bellarmine 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 15.2% 15.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.8 3.8 3.7 3.1 84.8 0.2%
Florida Gulf Coast 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.7 91.6 0.0%
Lipscomb 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6 92.4 0.0%
Stetson 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.2 94.7 0.0%
North Florida 3.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 96.2 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 97.4 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 97.8 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 37.4% 2.0% 36.6% 7.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 17.2% 1.9% 16.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 15.2% 1.7% 14.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 8.4% 1.6% 7.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 7.6% 1.4% 7.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 5.3% 1.3% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 3.8% 1.4% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.6% 0.9% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 2.2% 1.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.0 1.0
1st Round 94.0% 0.9 6.0 93.4 0.7
2nd Round 12.3% 0.1 87.7 12.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0