Preseason Rankings
Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#251
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.7#220
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#238
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#274
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 12.7% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.0 15.0
.500 or above 34.0% 71.0% 31.6%
.500 or above in Conference 51.0% 77.2% 49.3%
Conference Champion 5.3% 13.8% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 2.0% 8.8%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
First Round4.7% 12.0% 4.3%
Second Round0.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 6.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 49 - 611 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 60   @ Georgia Tech L 62-79 6%    
  Nov 17, 2021 152   @ Miami (OH) L 66-75 22%    
  Nov 19, 2021 308   @ Lamar W 72-71 51%    
  Nov 27, 2021 200   Campbell L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 01, 2021 159   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-75 24%    
  Dec 04, 2021 273   @ Florida International L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 11, 2021 91   Ohio L 70-78 26%    
  Dec 16, 2021 235   College of Charleston W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 20, 2021 85   @ Miami (FL) L 65-80 12%    
  Jan 04, 2022 110   Liberty L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 08, 2022 280   @ North Florida L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 11, 2022 302   @ Jacksonville L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 15, 2022 311   Kennesaw St. W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 18, 2022 222   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 22, 2022 318   @ North Alabama W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 27, 2022 165   Bellarmine L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 180   Eastern Kentucky L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 226   @ Lipscomb L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 334   @ Central Arkansas W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 09, 2022 164   Jacksonville St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 12, 2022 222   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 16, 2022 302   Jacksonville W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 19, 2022 110   @ Liberty L 60-72 16%    
  Feb 23, 2022 311   @ Kennesaw St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 26, 2022 280   North Florida W 75-71 63%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.3 1.7 0.2 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 4.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 2.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 12th
Total 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.2 7.4 9.2 10.7 11.3 11.5 10.5 9.5 7.5 5.4 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 98.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1
14-2 80.8% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1
13-3 44.6% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-4 15.7% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 54.2% 51.0% 3.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5%
15-1 0.8% 39.0% 38.5% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9%
14-2 2.0% 32.0% 31.9% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.2%
13-3 3.6% 22.5% 22.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.8
12-4 5.4% 15.7% 15.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 4.5
11-5 7.5% 11.1% 11.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.7
10-6 9.5% 6.9% 6.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.8
9-7 10.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.0
8-8 11.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.2
7-9 11.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.1
6-10 10.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.6
5-11 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
4-12 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
3-13 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.2
2-14 3.2% 3.2
1-15 1.5% 1.5
0-16 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.2 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%